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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.11.20 15:10z 150 Lines 7991 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41429_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20 11
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<VE2PKT<LU3DVN<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 201120/1501Z 41429@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145
PM CST Thu Nov 19 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected
across the contiguous United States on Saturday.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong westerly upper jet will move
eastward from the western CONUS across the southern Rockies/Plains
through Saturday night. Large-scale upper trough amplification is
also expected across much of central CONUS as a shortwave trough
migrates from the northern Rockies across the northern/central
Plains through the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain
over much of the central/eastern states, with modest low-level
moisture return occurring ahead of a cold front across parts of
the southern Plains/Ozarks. Large-scale ascent associated with the
left exit region of the upper jet and approaching shortwave trough
may contribute to isolated thunderstorms from the Four Corners
vicinity eastward into portions of the southern Plains. Rather
limited MUCAPE (generally 250 J/kg or less) should tend to limit
overall thunderstorm coverage, with most precipitation forecast to
remain to the north of the surface cold front.
Farther south, convection capable of producing isolated lightning
also appears possible across parts of the central/southern FL
Peninsula and the Keys. Easterly low-level flow should transport
greater low-level moisture inland through the day, with fairly cool
mid-level temperatures supporting weak to moderate instability by
peak afternoon heating. Weak deep-layer shear across this region
is expected to preclude organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Gleason.. 11/20/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215
AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected
across the contiguous United States on Sunday.
...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough should continue
moving eastward from the Plains across the MS Valley/Midwest
and eastern states on Sunday. At the surface, a weak low is
forecast to develop northeastward from the Mid-South to the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast through the period. A cold front attendant
to the surface low should sweep east-southeastward across much of
the southern Plains and eastern states. Modest low-level moisture
ahead of the front is expected to remain generally confined to
parts of the southern Plains into the Mid-South. Various guidance
suggests little instability should be present across these regions
owing to the limited low-level moisture and poor mid-level lapse
rates. Still, just enough elevated instability may exist to support
isolated thunderstorms, with lightning potential decreasing with
northeastward extent into the OH Valley as instability becomes
negligible. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected over
any of these regions owing to the meager forecast instability.
Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of
the central/southern FL Peninsula and the Keys as weak low-level
easterly flow continues, in the vicinity of the Four Corners as
upper troughing amplifies over the western CONUS late in the period,
and possibly across the Outer Banks of NC very late Sunday night
into early Monday morning.
..Gleason.. 11/20/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears
low across the CONUS on Day 4/Monday as a large-scale upper
trough shifts eastward from the western states to the Plains. Lee
cyclogenesis should occur over the central Plains ahead of the
amplifying upper trough, with some low-level moisture return
occurring over the southern Plains. As the southern portion of
the upper trough consolidates and ejects eastward across the
southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day
5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday, some severe thunderstorm potential
could materialize across parts of these regions. At this point,
instability appears fairly limited, which should keep any severe
threat isolated/marginal.
The upper trough may outpace the limited low-level moisture by Day
7/Thursday across parts of the eastern states, which suggests that
the severe risk will probably be lower compared to prior days. By
the end of next week, large differences emerge in medium-range
guidance regarding the evolution of another upper trough over the
western/central CONUS. Depending on this trough's amplification and
the degree of low-level moisture return, it appears possible that
a severe threat could develop across parts of the southern Plains
around Day 8/Friday. Regardless, predictability remains very low
at this extended time frame.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is forecast to prevail across
the CONUS through tonight as a core of stronger westerly mid-level
winds shifts from the Upper Midwest to portions of the Northeast
and eastern Canada. Meanwhile, surface high pressure is forecast
across much of the CONUS.
...Southern California... Offshore flow is forecast to increase
somewhat today through tonight across Southern California as high
pressure over the northern Great Basin gradually builds southward
allowing the surface pressure gradient to modestly strengthen. While
wind speeds are forecast to generally remain less than 15 mph,
terrain-enhanced winds may allow for brief periods of locally
Elevated fire weather conditions in the typically favored areas as
minimum RH values fall to near critical values (e.g., 15%). Locally
elevated fire weather conditions may continue in the same areas
through tonight as lingering breeziness overlaps areas with poor
overnight RH recoveries.
..Elliott.. 11/20/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is forecast to shift eastward
into the Plains Day 2/Saturday as a mid-level shortwave trough
approaches the Southern California coast. Meanwhile, a large area
of surface high pressure is forecast to continue building slowly
southward from the northern Great Basin toward the central Rockies.
...Southern California... Offshore is forecast to be a bit stronger
Day 2/Saturday than on Day 1/Friday as the aforementioned surface
high pressure builds farther southward and the surface pressure
gradient modestly strengthens. Elevated (to locally critical
in terrain-favored areas) fire weather conditions are possible
as sustained wind speeds of 15-20 mph occur in conjunction
with near-critical RH values (e.g., 15%). Elevated fire weather
conditions may continue in some areas through the overnight and
into Day 3/Sunday due to poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering
breezy surface winds.
..Elliott.. 11/20/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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"Cogito ergo I'm right and you're wrong."
-- Blair Houghton
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