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LU9DCE > ALERT 22.11.20 15:06z 175 Lines 9722 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41552_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22 11
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<VE2PKT<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 201122/1501Z 41552@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230
AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across
the contiguous United States on Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of large-scale upper troughs
will move eastward across the CONUS on Monday. Strong low-level
warm/moist advection ahead of the upper trough over the eastern
states may support just enough elevated instability to generate
isolated lightning flashes with convection occurring across parts
of Long Island into coastal New England. Even with mid to perhaps
upper 50s surface dewpoints advecting into parts of coastal
MA Monday morning/early afternoon, it appears that meaningful
surface-based instability will struggle to materialize ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front. Still, given the strength of the low to
mid-level south-southwesterly flow, a strong convective wind gust
cannot be completely ruled out. However, owing to limited forecast
instability, this potential currently appears too low to include
any probabilities for severe wind gusts across RI and eastern
MA. Thunderstorm potential should shift quickly east-northeastward
and offshore through the day in tandem with the progression of the
upper trough.
The upper trough over the western CONUS will likewise progress
eastward, with the southern portion of this trough closing off near
the Four Corners late Monday night. Although moisture is expected
to remain quite limited, cooling mid-level temperatures and strong
forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough/low should
support isolated thunderstorms across parts of the southern/central
Rockies through the period. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis will
occur across the central High Plains, with modest low-level moisture
return occurring across portions of the southern/central Plains
ahead of the developing low. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur
across this area, mainly Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Instability is forecast to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE generally 500
J/kg or less), with any storms that form likely remaining elevated.
..Gleason.. 11/22/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225
AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...MID-SOUTH...AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear
possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across portions of the
southern/central Plains, Ozarks, Mid-South, and lower Mississippi
Valley.
...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Lower Mississippi Valley...
An upper trough/low initially centered over the southern/central
Rockies should eject eastward across the southern/central Plains
on Tuesday, eventually reaching the lower/mid MS Valley by the end
of the period. Enhanced (50-60+ kt) mid-level southwesterly winds
will likely overspread much of the developing warm sector across the
southern/central Plains by Tuesday evening. A surface low over the
vicinity of western KS/NE Tuesday morning is forecast to develop
eastward towards the mid MS Valley through the period. Pronounced
low-level warm/moist advection will likely be ongoing across
the southern/central Plains Tuesday morning, with a 40-50+ kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet present over this region. As
this low-level jet shifts eastward across the Ozarks and lower/mid
MS Valley through the day, partially modified Gulf moisture will
likewise return northward.
Elevated convection may be ongoing Tuesday morning across the
southern/central High Plains associated with low-level warm
advection. As mid-level temperatures cool with the approach of the
upper trough and low-level moisture continues streaming northward
across the southern Plains, at least weak instability should develop
by late Tuesday afternoon along and east of a surface cold front
and dryline. Somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear may support isolated, marginally severe hail with
any initially discrete storms across OK and perhaps south-central
KS. By Tuesday evening, any storms that do form will likely grow
upscale into a line along the advancing cold front. Given the
predominately linear mode and enhanced low-level wind field,
isolated strong to damaging winds should become the main threat
across the Ozarks, Mid-South, and lower MS Valley region Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning.
There is uncertainty regarding the quality and northward extent of
greater low-level moisture return, with the 00Z GFS/ECMWF suggesting
mid to perhaps upper 50s surface dewpoints may reach as far north
as south-central/southeastern KS into southern MO and the Mid-South.
The 00Z NAM shows less low-level moisture return across these areas.
Regardless, there will probably be enough low-level moisture
and related weak instability to support surface-based storms and
isolated strong/gusty wind potential with a low-topped convective
line. Farther south into parts of central/eastern OK, AR, northeast
TX, northern LA, and MS, the presence of somewhat higher dewpoints
along with enhanced low-level shear may support a slightly greater
tornado threat compared to locations farther north. Model differences
regarding the degree of low-level moisture return and weak forecast
instability suggest there is too much uncertainty to include more
than a broad Marginal risk area at this time.
..Gleason.. 11/22/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION... As an upper trough/low moves across the
central/eastern CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday, an isolated/marginal severe
risk may continue across parts of the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and
Southeast. Limited low-level moisture and weak instability forecast
across these regions should temper the overall severe risk. Another
large-scale upper trough is forecast to develop eastward across the
western/central CONUS late this upcoming week. Medium-range guidance
is in general agreement with this scenario, although details in
surface low placement across the southern Plains and the northward
extent of the warm sector ahead of the upper trough remain rather
unclear. An organized severe thunderstorm risk appears possible in
association with this ejecting upper trough/low from Day 6/Friday
through Day 8/Sunday over some portion of the southern Plains,
lower MS Valley, and Southeast. Regardless, the timing/amplitude of
this feature and amount of instability that may be present remain
too uncertain to include 15% severe probabilities at this extended
time frame.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to amplify over the West
today, as a downstream upper trough moves from the central/northern
Plains into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. The surface ridge centered
over the interior Northwest is forecast to weaken and shift eastward
during the day. Weak offshore flow will persist into this morning
across portions of southern CA.
...Southern CA... Elevated fire weather conditions associated with
weak offshore flow may persist during the first part of the day
today across terrain-favored regions, before the offshore gradient
weakens this afternoon. This evening into the overnight hours,
elevated conditions may redevelop across terrain-favored regions
of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties, as low-level
northerly flow intensifies in conjunction with the passage of a
mid/upper-level shortwave trough. For both of these regimes, wind
gusts up to 35 mph will be possible, in conjunction with RH values
at or below 20%.
..Dean.. 11/22/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis... The western upper trough is forecast to shift
eastward on Monday, as an upper ridge builds into portions of the
Pacific Coast. In the wake of the departing trough, a surface ridge
is forecast to build back into portions of the interior Northwest
and Great Basin later Monday into Monday night.
...Southern CA... Rather strong midlevel flow in the wake of a
departing shortwave trough will support somewhat enhanced northerly
winds across terrain-favored portions of Santa Barbara, Ventura,
and Los Angeles Counties on Monday. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph
(with higher gusts) will be possible, in conjunction with RH dropping
to near or below 20%. This combination of conditions will result
in an elevated fire weather threat.
..Dean.. 11/22/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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