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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.12.20 16:05z 122 Lines 6657 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42361_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04 12
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<W0ARP<KF5JRV<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201204/1600Z 42361@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141
AM CST Fri Dec 04 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southern
Florida Sunday night into early Monday morning.
...Synopsis...
An upper level low over OK/TX on Sunday morning is forecast to
shift eastward across the lower MS Valley while merging with an
upper trough over the Midwest late in the period. A weak surface low
and cold front will track eastward across the Gulf of Mexico well
south of the northern Gulf Coast. However, strong southwesterly deep
layer flow associate with the upper low/trough will result in strong
midlevel warm advection and widespread showers are expected along
much of the northern Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms are not expected
with this activity given limited low level moisture and weak
instability. Further east and ahead of the surface low/cold front,
deeper boundary layer moisture will reside across the southern FL
peninsula and increase during the overnight hours as southerly low
level flow strengthens. While instability will be weak and midlevel
lapse rates poor, a few pre-frontal thunderstorms appear possible
during the overnight hours as shear and forcing increases. The poor
thermodynamic environment should preclude any severe threat.
..Leitman.. 12/04/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CST Fri Dec 04 2020
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low during the Day 4-8
period. A mean trough will persist across the eastern U.S. through
Day 5/Tue. During this time, an upper ridge will spread eastward
from portions of the western U.S. to the Plains. Meanwhile, a
mid/upper low over CA will become cut-off and migrate southwest
over the Pacific offshore from southern CA/northern Baja through Day
6/Wed. By Day 7/Thu, medium range guidance develops the CA/Baja upper
low eastward across northern Mexico/southern AZ/NM, with an open wave
upper trough ejecting into the southern Plains on Day 8/Fri. Overall,
surface high pressure across much of the CONUS and dearth of boundary
layer moisture will preclude severe thunderstorm potential through
at least Day 6/Wed. Thunderstorm activity may increase late in
the period as southwesterly deep layer flow increases ahead of
the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico upper low/trough. However,
severe storms appear unlikely at this time given poor northward
return of Gulf moisture in advance of this system, likely leading
to poor thermodynamics.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CST Fri Dec 04 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis... A stagnant mid-level flow regime is forecast to
continue across much of the west Coast through Day 1. The pseudo
rex block will keep offshore winds and low humidity across much of
southern California where critical fire weather conditions appear
likely. High pressure over the Great Plains may also support locally
elevated fire weather potential.
...Southern California... The prolonged offshore wind event across
much of SOCAL is forecast to continue, but begin to weaken later
this evening. High pressure over the Great Basin will move little
through the day, keeping strong offshore pressure gradients of 10-12
mb likely across the LA Basin and transverse ranges. Overnight
observations continue to show widespread gusty winds across the
coastal ranges and adjacent foothills. Upper-level support will
begin to wane through the afternoon as the mid-level cutoff low and
stronger flow aloft drift farther south into Mexico. The result of
which should be slightly decreased surface winds and a return to
onshore flow in the immediate coastal areas. Despite the relaxing
of the stronger mid-level winds, very dry surface conditions with
single digit RH will remain likely across the higher terrain. The
very dry airmass in combination with stubborn northeasterly winds
driven by katabatic flows will keep critical fire weather conditions
in play across the mountains and foothills of southern California
through tonight.
...Central high Plains... Dry westerly winds are expected across
much of the High Plains through the day. With little meaningful
precipitation accumulation over the past two weeks, dry fuels are
in place. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur where
sustained surface winds and minimum humidity around 20% overlap
with the aforementioned cured fuels.
..Lyons.. 12/04/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CST Fri Dec 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis... A ridge of high pressure will dominate the west Coast
as an upper-level low slowly drifts to the south across northern
Mexico. A surface pressure gradient across southern California
will continue to weaken as upper support diminishes. Dry and windy
surface conditions will support elevated fire potential across much
of southern California.
...Southern California... Downslope winds will likely be in place
across the higher terrain of southern California at the beginning
of the forecast period. Katabatic flow from the entrenched high
pressure across the Great Basin will continue to support east
northeasterly winds through the morning and early afternoon. Weak
onshore flow is likely to develop near the immediate coast
as the offshore pressure gradient and terrain drainage weaken
diurnally. Inland, poor humidity recovery, with single digit RH
across much of the area, and the gusty northeast winds will support
elevated fire weather potential through much of the day given ample
dry fuels.
..Lyons.. 12/04/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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-- Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas
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