| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 03.02.19 16:15z 122 Lines 6485 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15561_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 01 01
Path: HB9ON<HB9ON<HB9ON<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<
LU9DCE
Sent: 190101/0800Z 15561@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.17
>From lu9dce%lu9dce.tor.ba.arg.soam@i0ojj.ampr.org Tue Jan 1 09:00:59 2019
Received: from i0ojj.ampr.org by i0ojj.ampr.org (JNOS2.0k.3b) with SMTP
id AA69702 ; Tue, 01 Jan 2019 09:00:59 +0100
Message-Id: <15561_LU9DCE@ea2rcf.bbs>
>From: lu9dce@lu9dce.tor.ba.arg.soam
X-JNOS-User-Port: Telnet (ea2rcf @ 94.177.237.192) -> Sending message
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
MD 0001 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...MUCH OF MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0001 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018
Areas affected...Portions of Vermont and New Hampshire...much
of Maine
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 010315Z - 010915Z
SUMMARY...A wintry mix of precipitation is expected for the next
several hours. A mix of sleet and freezing rain are most likely in
the southern portions of the region, with heavy snow (with rates up
to 1 in/hr) likely in the northern most areas. Heavy snow is also
possible in the higher elevations. Throughout tonight, a transition
to rain is expected, starting from the south, moving northward.
DISCUSSION...Widespread moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation
has been noted in advance of a well-defined cyclone (currently
over Lower Michigan) and associated upper-level trough, which is
currently promoting 925-700 mb WAA and large-scale ascent across
the northeast CONUS.
PFC RAP soundings indicate a sub-freezing troposphere ahead of the
widespread precipitation across portions of New England, where near
freezing surface temperatures have also been observed (mainly from
central Vermont/New Hampshire, northward). As the aforementioned WAA
continues to warm the low levels of the troposphere, temperatures
aloft will climb above freezing in some spots (as also supported
by latest high-resolution model guidance), promoting a mix of
rain (perhaps some freezing rain), sleet, and snow, particularly
in the lower elevations, as already indicated by KENX and KCXX
dual-polarimetric radar data within the past hour. The higher
elevations in portions of Vermont and New Hampshire, as well as both
higher and lower elevations in central/northern Maine, will likely
see longer periods of snow, with up to 1 in/hr snowfall rates in the
lower elevations and up to 2 in/hr rates in the higher elevations.
As the aforementioned surface low continues northeastward,
above-freezing temperatures will continue to advect northward both
at the surface and aloft, resulting in a transition to all rain.
This transition is expected to start across the southernmost portions
of the area first, and progress northeast with time, with portions
of central and northern Maine likely remaining below freezing at the
surface and throughout a deep layer, hence a snow threat lingering
in this region.
..Squitieri.. 01/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
LAT...LON 43487047 43397101 44187308 44657321 44877262 45037110
46057015 46267001 46476980 46456890 46416842 45956784 45876777
45706780 45656788 45146807 43487047
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124
PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop Tuesday night
across parts of central and eastern Texas. No severe weather is
expected.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move slowly across the
Four Corners region today as southwest anticyclonic mid-level flow
remains over the south-central U.S. Warm advection will develop
in parts of the southern Plains overnight as low-level flow
increases across the Texas Coastal Plain. This combined with lift
associated with a band of large-scale ascent may support isolated
thunderstorm development across parts of central and east Texas late
in the period. Instability should remain too weak for a severe
threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, thunderstorm development is
not expected today or tonight.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/01/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117
PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
evening and overnight from central through northern Texas.
...Central/North TX... Overall upper pattern is expected to
amplify during the period as a southern-stream low continues to
dig gradually southeastward while the northern stream remains more
progressive. Maturation of the southern-stream cyclone will result in
a more neutral tilt and more coherent closed low-level circulation by
the end of period (12Z Thursday). Antecedent frontal zone extending
from the just off the far south TX coast northeastward through the
central Gulf Coast, western FL Panhandle, and southern GA early in
the period will remain largely in place with only minor northward
movement ahead of the approaching upper system. This will keep the
low-level moisture and surface-based instability offshore. Even so,
isentropic ascent will promote showers across much of central and
east TX during the day. As mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the
approaching upper low, lapse rates may steepen enough Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning to support enough instability for
isolated instances of charge separation and lightning production.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Mosier.. 01/01/2019
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Reniego del amigo que cubre con las alas y muerde con el pico.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
\\\ Eduardo Castillo --- lu9dce@gmx.com --- http://lu9dce.dynu.com \\\
/// MAP LU9DCE-4 lu9dce-50445.portmap.host UDP 50455 B ///
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
