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LU9DCE > ALERT 22.02.19 07:33z 125 Lines 6621 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18841_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 22 02
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<HB9CSR<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190222/0700Z 18841@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148
PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon, expanding into the ArkLaTex
vicinity by late tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for
severe weather.
...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough over the Southwest is
expected to intensify and become negatively tilted as it moves
east-northeastward towards the Southern Plains by Saturday morning.
In response, cyclogenesis is expected in the lee of the southern
Rockies, and a cold front will begin to surge eastward into portions
of West TX late tonight. Further east, a warm front will move slowly
northward during the day across portions of east TX into the lower
Mississippi Valley, with some acceleration northward into the
ArkLaTex region late tonight as the surface low deepens to the west.
...Lower MS Valley Region... Showers and scattered thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing at the start of the period and will continue
through much of the day due to persistent warm advection north of
the warm front. While rich low-level moisture (characterized by
mid-upper 60s F dewpoints) will spread slowly northward through
the day south of the boundary, widespread cloudiness and only
modest midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit instability, with
MLCAPE likely remaining in the 500-1000 J/kg range across the warm
sector. With the primary upper system and associated large-scale
ascent remaining well to the west during the day, the greatest
coverage of convection is expected to remain north of the boundary,
though there will be some potential for a few surface-based storms
during the afternoon across portions of central/southern MS and
perhaps northern LA, with an attendant risk of marginally severe
hail and locally damaging wind. While a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out with any cell that interacts with the surface boundary,
the potential for substantial surface-based development appears
too limited at this time to introduce tornado probabilities.
Elevated convection from southeast AR into northern MS may also pose
some severe risk, especially later tonight when somewhat steeper
midlevel lapse rates begin to move in from the west as the upper
trough approaches and the surface boundary gradually moves northward.
...ArkLaTex Region Late Tonight... As the primary shortwave moves
into the southern Plains late in the period, elevated storms may
develop across portions of eastern OK/TX into the ArkLaTex by
early Saturday morning. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient
effective shear will support a conditional risk of hail and perhaps
locally damaging wind with the strongest cells, though the coverage
and southward extent of deep convection across the region prior to
the end of the period at 12Z remains uncertain at this time.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 02/22/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133
PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SE
AR/NORTHERN MS TO WESTERN TN...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to form
along a corridor from the lower Mississippi Valley into portions
of the Tennessee Valley. Damaging winds and tornadoes are possible.
...Lower MS Valley to TN Valley...
Late-evening water vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
near the lower CO River Valley. This feature is forecast to eject
into the southern Plains by the start of the day2 period then lift
into the Mid MS Valley by mid day Saturday as an intense 500mb
speed max translates across OK into MO. Mid-level speed max will
shift into western PA by Sunday morning. Impressive 12hr 500mb
height falls will spread across the southern High Plains into MO
with the southern extent of large-scale forcing for ascent expected
to glance the ENH Risk region.
Latest model guidance suggests this low-latitude system will
induce a lee surface low over northeast NM late Friday. Surface
low should track along the KS/OK border before ejecting northeast
into southeast IA by early evening. In response to this developing
cyclone, higher-PW air mass will surge inland as a warm front lifts
across the Arklatex ahead of a surging cold front. Latest NAM
guidance is not as aggressive with destabilization from eastern
OK into KY due to a slower advancing warm front. Have adjusted
northern severe probabilities to reflect the possibility that
buoyancy, and certainly surface-based instability, may be retarded
at higher latitudes. Forecast shear profiles are impressive and
supportive of organized severe convection. At this time it appears
severe convection should evolve along the advancing cold front
with supercells possible prior to possible squall line development.
Discrete pre-frontal storms may develop which could have a proclivity
to produce tornadoes if surface-based instability materializes as
expected across the ENH risk, and surrounding areas. Severe threat
will migrate into the TN Valley and central Gulf States during
the latter half of the period. In addition to the tornado threat,
damaging winds are likely with the frontal convection.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced Wind:
30% - Enhanced Hail: 15% - Slight
..Darrow.. 02/22/2019
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A Tale of Two Cities LITE(tm)
-- by Charles Dickens
A man in love with a girl who loves another man who looks just like him
has his head chopped off in France because of a mean lady who knits.
Crime and Punishment LITE(tm)
-- by Fyodor Dostoevski
A man sends a nasty letter to a pawnbroker, but later feels guilty
and apologizes.
The Odyssey LITE(tm)
-- by Homer
After working late, a valiant warrior gets lost on his way home.
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