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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.12.20 16:04z 111 Lines 5879 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42429_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05 12
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RBS<DB0LHR<DB0FHN<OE2XZR<OE5XBR<OE1XAB<
HG8LXL<XE1FH<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 201205/1600Z 42429@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102
AM CST Sat Dec 05 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the
southern Florida peninsula on Monday.
...Synopsis... A mean upper trough will persist across the eastern
U.S. on Monday while an upper ridge builds across the western
half of the country. Within the western upper ridge, an upper low
over southern CA will become cut-off and shift southwest over the
Pacific offshore from southern CA/northern Baja. At the surface,
high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS, bringing dry and
stable conditions with little chance of thunderstorm activity. The
exception will be across the southern Florida peninsula, mainly
during the morning hours. A weak surface low offshore the southwest
FL coast will quickly shift east/northeast by early afternoon, and
a cold front will sag southward. Weak instability and poor lapse
rates should limit severe potential, though strong southwesterly
deep layer flow will persist through at least midday. This could
result in a briefly organized storm or two, capable of gusty winds.
..Leitman.. 12/05/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CST Sat Dec 05 2020
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is not expected for much of the
Day 4-8 period. Dry and stable conditions will prevail beneath
an upper ridge developing eastward from the western U.S. into
the central and eastern U.S. through Day 5/Wed. In the wake of
the upper ridge, a shortwave trough will dig across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies on Day 6/Thu, and a persistent closed
low off the southern CA/northern Baja coast will eject eastward
along the northern Mexico/southwestern U.S. border. As the upper
trough ejects eastward toward the southern Rockies, at least weak
lee cyclogenesis is forecast. This should allow some degree of
Gulf return flow ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front
late Thursday into Days 7-8/Fri-Sat across TX into the northern
Gulf Coast region. Medium range guidance varies in the northward
extent of moisture return and the exact track of the associated
surface low. While increasing potential for thunderstorms appears
likely Days 7-8, severe potential is still uncertain.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Sat Dec 05 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis... Ridging over the Great Basin and western US will
remain in place as a shortwave trough approaches the Washington
Coast. Warm temperatures, very dry air, and weak offshore flow will
remain across California supporting elevated fire weather potential.
...Southern California... With high pressure firmly established
over the interior western US, little flow aloft is forecast across
California through the forecast period. The lack of appreciable
upper air support means low-level flows will be dominated by the
weak offshore gradients and diurnal circulations. This will continue
to support northeasterly surface winds with occasional gusts to
25-30 mph across the higher terrain of southern California. Poor
overnight recoveries and diurnal single digit RH from the very dry
air mass in place will support elevated and locally critical fire
weather conditions.
..Lyons.. 12/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CST Sat Dec 05 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will develop on Day2/Sunday
as a shortwave trough is shunted southward by the strong ridge of
high pressure over the Great Basin. Relatively tranquil winds will
intensify late in the day and overnight as the offshore pressure
gradient redevelops ahead of the shortwave trough. Elevated and
locally critical fire weather conditions appear likely across
portions of southern California.
...Southern California... Offshore flow near the coast and across
the LA Basin will remain weak through much of the day with surface
high pressure in place. Despite the lack of stronger boundary-layer
flow, warm temperatures and single digit RH will support locally
elevated fire weather potential across the higher terrain through
the afternoon hours.
A more serious threat for widespread fire weather conditions will
begin to develop overnight and into early Day3/Monday. As the
pressure gradient begins to tighten ahead of the southward moving
shortwave trough, northeasterly winds of 15-25 mph will ramp up
overnight. With poor humidity recoveries (10-20%) continuing,
the potential for widespread elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions appears likely. While current forecasts show the
strongest winds (25-35 mph with gusts of 40+ mph) developing in the
afternoon and evening of Day3/Monday, considerable model variability
exists. An upgrade to critical conditions may become necessary for
late Day2/Sunday should the faster model solutions be realized.
..Lyons.. 12/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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