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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.12.20 16:01z 114 Lines 6033 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42606_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08 12
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<LU9HGS<LU9DCE
Sent: 201208/1600Z 42606@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134
AM CST Tue Dec 08 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
The upper low over the lower CO Valley/northwest Mexico early
Thursday will progress eastward, becoming an open wave, to the
western portions of the central/southern Plains by 12z Friday.
Strong southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread the southern
Rockies and adjacent Plains, with strong height falls resulting in
surface low development over OK/TX during the afternoon and evening.
As this occurs, southerly low level return flow across the western
Gulf will transport modest moisture northward across southern and
eastern TX into the Ark-La-Tex vicinity late in the period. Showers
are expected across parts of AZ/NM during the day and despite
strong ascent associated with the progressive upper trough, meager
instability should preclude thunderstorm activity. During the
overnight hours toward early Friday morning, the warm advection
occurring over eastern TX may also result in showers, however,
thunderstorm chances before the end of the forecast period appear
low.
..Leitman.. 12/08/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CST Tue Dec 08 2020
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough with several embedded
shortwave troughs will slowly migrate across the Plains and central
U.S. Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Strong southwesterly flow amid height falls
will result in a strengthening surface low developing northeast
from the southern Plains early on Friday to the lower Great Lakes
vicinity by Day 6/Sun morning. Low level Gulf return flow will
spread moisture northward ahead of a cold front attendant to the
low. Better-quality moisture will be confined to the TX Gulf Coast
eastward to the lower MS Valley and thunderstorms are likely to
increase by Friday afternoon along the front. Some low-end severe
threat could develop from east TX into the lower MS Valley through
Saturday, but uncertainty remains regarding how much destabilization
will be able to occur whether moisture return will be ill-timed
with the frontal passage/strongest forcing.
Beyond Day 5/Sat, medium range guidance varies greatly in the
evolution of the larger-scale trough over the central U.S. and
predictability is low.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Tue Dec 08 2020
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis... High pressure will dominate much of the central CONUS
as a cutoff low meanders south near Baja. Offshore flow will persist
across California supporting critical fire weather conditions.
...Southern California... Moderate to strong Santa Ana winds
are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across
much of southern California. The strong surface pressure gradient
associated with the Great Basin high will begin to diminish by mid
to late morning as the upper low continues to drift south towards
Baja. Offshore winds will rapidly drop in intensity this afternoon
with the loss of the strong gradient and upper-air support. Despite
the drop off, near single digit RH and lingering offshore flow
will support widespread critical fire weather conditions through
this evening. Elevated fire weather potential will remain through
the overnight and into Day2/Wednesday, but critical conditions are
likely to become much more localized as the stronger winds retreat
to areas of terrain enhancement.
...Northern Rockies... Locally elevated fire weather conditions
are possible with dry downslope winds forecast to develop across
portions of Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas. Available fuels
across the region are somewhat limited, and model uncertainty on
the longevity and magnitude of overlap between near critical RH
and the stronger winds precludes the addition of an elevated area.
..Lyons.. 12/08/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Tue Dec 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis... The amplified upper-air pattern across the US will
be punctuated by a strong ridge across the central CONUS and robust
flow near the international border. A cutoff low over Baja will
move gradually to the east, flanking the ridge. Lingering winds
and low humidity over southern California will support elevated
fire weather conditions through the first half of the day.
...Southern California... Widespread elevated and locally critical
fire weather conditions from remnant offshore winds will become
increasingly local in nature through the day as low-level flow and
the offshore pressure gradient weakens. Lingering winds, especially
in the higher terrain and gap areas will keep elevated to locally
critical conditions possible through the afternoon hours. By evening,
some locations will see onshore winds develop initiating humidity
recoveries unfavorable for widespread fire weather activity through
the rest of the period.
..Lyons.. 12/08/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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I gave up Smoking, Drinking and Sex. It was the most
*__________horrifying* 20 minutes of my life!
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