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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.12.20 16:02z 158 Lines 8247 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42666_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09 12
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<N3HYM<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 201209/1600Z 42666@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150
PM CST Tue Dec 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight
across parts of southern Arizona.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the
north-central states today as an upper-level low moves from the
eastern Pacific toward the Desert Southwest. As large-scale ascent
ahead of the low moves across southern Arizona tonight, isolated
thunderstorm development will be possible. Instability ahead of the
system will be very weak and no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere
across the continental United States, thunderstorms are not forecast
today and tonight.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 12/09/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119
PM CST Tue Dec 08 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions
of Arizona and New Mexico into western Texas on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough over the lower Colorado Valley and northwest
Mexico will eject eastward to the southern High Plains by
Friday morning. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough will develop
southeastward across the Pacific Northwest, and eventually toward
the Great Basin overnight, reinforcing a larger-scale upper trough
over the western half of the CONUS. A few thunderstorms could be
ongoing Thursday morning across parts of southern AZ. As the upper
shortwave trough shifts eastward toward the southern Rockies and
southern High Plains, southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase
midlevel moisture, while forcing for ascent overspreads the region.
Forecast soundings indicated enough elevated instability through
the -20 C layer that isolated thunderstorms should continue across
parts of southern NM. Further east, height falls over the Plains
will result in weak surface low development over TX/OK. This will
allow southerly return flow to develop over the western Gulf of
Mexico and modest boundary-layer moisture will work northward across
southern, central and eastern TX after 00z. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible across parts of southwest TX during the evening,
and may spread eastward toward the Hill Country by 12z Friday. Severe
storms are not expected with this activity.
..Leitman.. 12/09/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131
AM CST Wed Dec 09 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
Friday across portions of the south-central U.S.
...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough over the western U.S. will deepen and
slowly shift eastward to the Plains by Saturday morning. A lead
shortwave impulse over the central/southern High Plains Friday
morning will eject east/northeast across the mid/lower MS Valley,
weakening with time. At the surface, a weak low/baroclinic zone
will extend from the Ozarks through eastern OK and into central
TX during the afternoon. Southerly low level flow will allow Gulf
moisture to spread northward across the south-central U.S., with
the higher surface dewpoints being confined to the TX Gulf Coast and
southwest LA. 60s F dewpoints may make it as far north as southern AR
late Friday night/Saturday morning, but overall, the boundary layer
will remain shallow and moisture return of poor-quality given recent
cold fronts developing far into the southern Gulf of Mexico/Yucatan
region. Nevertheless, strong ascent will spread over the southern
Plains to the lower/mid MS Valley vicinity and modest elevated
instability is forecast. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in this
warm advection regime ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front,
but severe potential is not expected.
..Leitman.. 12/09/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 AM CST Wed Dec 09 2020
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded
within a broader, large-scale trough centered over the Plains will
eject northeast from the Midwest to the northeastern U.S. on Day
4/Saturday. At the surface, a low near the mid-MS Valley Saturday
morning will develop northeast to the lower Great Lakes by Day
5/Sunday morning. A cold front attendant to the low will spread
east/southeast across the Midwest and south-central U.S., extending
from western NY/PA southwestward along the central and western Gulf
coast vicinity. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts
of the mid/lower MS Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf coast
on Saturday. While modest Gulf moisture will return northward ahead
of the front, the boundary layer will remain shallow and meager
instability is forecast, precluding severe thunderstorm concerns.
By Day 5/Sunday, medium range guidance begins to vary considerably
in the evolution of the larger-scale upper trough over the Plains,
and the associated surface pattern. The aforementioned cold front
will likely continue to push offshore the Atlantic coast and
Florida through early Day 6/Monday morning, but severe potential
will remain low. Beyond Sunday, predictability is low given model
variability, but in the mean, a progressive pattern with a series
of short wavelength troughs appears to be likely. This should limit
severe potential as any deep, higher-quality Gulf moisture return
would be unlikely.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Wed Dec 09 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis... High pressure over the central US will continue
to move eastward as an upper low traverses along the Mexican
border. Weak offshore flow across California will fade through the
day, resulting in a decrease in fire weather conditions across the
West Coast.
...Southern California... Decreasing offshore flow will persist
through the first half of the day before weak onshore flow develops
in the evening. The gusty remnant winds and humidity of 10-15%
will support elevated and locally critical fire weather conditions
prior to the arrival of much more humid air. While the coastal
areas will see the greatest benefit from rising humidity, winds
will become increasingly disorganized farther inland this evening
and overnight. Little in the way of organized fire weather activity
is expected after sunset.
...Lee of the Rockies... With high pressure moving to the east
across the central US, surface pressure gradients may support a few
strong wind gusts of 20-30 mph in eastern Wyoming and Colorado. With
RH of 20-30% locally elevated fire weather conditions will be
possible.
..Lyons.. 12/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CST Wed Dec 09 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level pattern will prove
inhospitable to widespread and organized fire weather potential
across much of the CONUS. A cold front moving across the central US
will bring precipitation and cooler conditions to the Rockies and
Plains as high pressure shifts toward the East Coast. With little
overlap from strong flow aloft and warm/dry surface conditions,
organized fire weather potential appears negligible.
..Lyons.. 12/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Faith, n:
That quality which enables us to believe what we know to be
untrue.
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