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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.12.20 16:01z 150 Lines 8058 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42732_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10 12
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<LU9HGS<LU9DCE
Sent: 201210/1600Z 42732@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 1216 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind
gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of east Texas.
...East Texas... An upper-level trough will move eastward from
the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains on Friday. At
the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the southern
Plains as low-level moisture return takes place across the eastern
third of Texas. Surface dewpoints should reach the lower 60s F
across the Texas coast and much of east Texas by afternoon. However,
the moist layer should remain shallow keeping instability weak near
the moist axis. In spite of the weak instability, thunderstorms
appear likely to develop during the afternoon ahead of the front to
the west of a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet. Convective coverage will
increase by late afternoon as a band of strong large-scale ascent,
ahead of the approaching upper-level trough, moves eastward across
east Texas. SBCAPE near 500 J/kg combined with 0-6 km shear of
50 to 60 kt may support a marginal wind-damage threat with the
stronger cells along the moist axis. Any potential for strong wind
gusts should diminish quickly as convection moves into the Sabine
River Valley during the early evening.
..Broyles.. 12/10/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207
AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Showers and scattered thunderstorms will affect
portions of the eastern U.S. Saturday, mainly east of the Mississippi
Valley and south of New England.
...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across
much of the U.S. this period, as eastern U.S. ridging is shunted
steadily eastward by the advance of a strong short-wave trough
across the Mid South/Ohio Valley. Short-wavelength ridging will
also shift onshore over the West during the day, and into the Great
Basin overnight ahead of a large northeastern Pacific upper low
moving steadily toward the western NOAM coast.
At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be a low
initially progged to lie over the central Illinois vicinity, with
a cold front trailing southward across the Mid Mississippi Valley
into Louisiana. With time, the low is expected to move northeastward
toward/into the Great Lakes, reaching Lake Huron/Georgian Bay late
in the period, with the cold front reaching the Appalachian crest.
Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the
period, particularly from Illinois/Indiana southward to Louisiana
in the vicinity of the cold front. With time, convection will
advance/spread eastward, in tandem with frontal progression. At this
time, it appears that instability will remain largely minimal,
and elevated, and thus severe weather appears largely unlikely.
One possible exception could conceivably evolve from coastal
Louisiana eastward into central and southern Alabama and western
portions of the Florida panhandle. Here, very modest (around 100
J/kg) surface-based CAPE may precede the front, with thunderstorm
coverage possibly aided by a weak/secondary vort max progged to move
eastward into the central Gulf Coast states during the afternoon.
While the lack of more substantial instability will likely act as
a strong limiter to any potential risk, shear ahead of the front
would be sufficient to support organized/possibly rotating updrafts.
At this time, will opt not to introduce 5% probability/MRGL risk for
severe weather, but if it becomes apparent that slightly greater
CAPE may evolve within the warm sector, low probabilities may be
required in later outlooks.
..Goss.. 12/10/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION... A progressive/moderate amplitude flow field aloft
is progged across the U.S. through Day 8, with medium-range models
in reasonably good agreement through Day 6 (Tuesday Dec. 15),
with respect to synoptic-scale evolution.
During this first three days of the period, low-amplitude troughing
-- rotating around the eastern fringe of a large northern Canada
polar vortex -- is forecast to gradually depart northeastward/away
from the northeastern states. Meanwhile, a second short-wave
trough -- initially over the Plains -- is forecast to move quickly
eastward across the Southeast Day 4 (Sunday Dec. 13) and then off
the Atlantic Coast through the first half of Day 5. This feature
will be followed by the next in a series of troughs, which will
move inland over the West Day 4, across the Intermountain region
and eventually into the Plains through Day 5, and then eastward to
the Mississippi Valley region through Day 6.
Both of these two, aforementioned troughs will be accompanied by
associated surface cyclogenesis. However, at this time it appears
that a cool/stable boundary layer will remain across the southern
Plains/Southeast, and thus the primary surface low tending to evolve
just offshore of the Gulf Coast -- along the main west-to-east
zone of baroclinicity (separating the cool continental air from
the Gulf airmass).
Given this evolution, any severe weather potential would appear
to be limited to the Florida Peninsula, and that risk appears too
low at this time to warrant any introduction of severe-weather
probabilities.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough will
dig into the southern Rockies and High Plains while high pressure
intensifies across the western Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front associated with the trough will move south into southern
Colorado increasing chances for rain and snow across the mountains
and plains. With cooler and more moist air in place over much of the
western and central CONUS, fire weather concerns will be negligible
with only locally elevated fire weather conditions possible across
portions of southern California and south/central Texas.
..Lyons.. 12/10/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move eastward from the
Rockies into the southern High Plains as the upper-air pattern
remains progressive. At the surface, low pressure and a cold front
will advance southward into the southern Plains as low-level moisture
return takes place across the Gulf Coast. Cool temperatures and
precipitation are expected across much of the Rockies and central
Plains along and behind the cold front. The cool and moist air
mass over much of the country should keep the threat for fire
weather conditions low. The only exception will be the potential
for locally elevated conditions across west Texas where humidity
is forecast to remain 25-35%.
..Lyons.. 12/10/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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First Corollary of Taber's Second Law:
Machines that piss people off get murdered.
-- Pat Taber
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