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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.12.20 16:12z 122 Lines 6489 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42802_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11 12
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<VK6HGR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<KC9VYU<
N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201211/1600Z 42802@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM.AR
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154
AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible
across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night.
...Discussion... A vigorous short wave trough digging out of
the Arctic latitudes may be accompanied by a more substantive
cold intrusion into portions of the northern Great Plains and
Upper Midwest. Otherwise, a belt of westerlies emanating from
the mid-latitude Pacific appears likely to maintain considerable
influence across much of the U.S. through this period.
One significant embedded short wave trough, likely digging to the
lee of the southern Rockies by 12Z Sunday, may support renewed
surface wave development along a frontal zone, initially stalling
across the lower Mississippi Valley into southern Great Plains.
With the latest ECMWF (11/00Z) a bit slower than prior runs (and
other model output) with the eastward progression of this feature
through 12Z Monday, there is meaningful spread among the guidance
that contributes to uncertain convective potential across parts of
the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity into the Southeast.
This mostly appears to impact the placement of the 10 percent
probability of thunderstorm line for Sunday through Sunday night,
as the rather modest amplitude of the surface wave forecast by
most guidance is not particularly suggestive of appreciable severe
weather potential. Furthermore, it appears that stronger mid/upper
forcing for ascent will remain well inland of coastal areas, as
boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
becomes more supportive of appreciable destabilization. However,
given the strengthening lower/mid tropospheric wind fields forecast
across coastal areas, if storms can form within the destabilizing
offshore waters, it might not be out of the question that some could
advect into coastal areas and pose some risk for severe weather.
Due to the conditional, in addition to apparent marginal, nature of
this potential, severe weather probabilities are currently being
maintained at less than 5 percent, but trends will continue to
be monitored.
..Kerr.. 12/11/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION... Within a belt of westerlies emanating from the
mid-latitude Pacific, it appears that another significant short wave
trough will progress inland of the Pacific coast by early Monday,
before traversing the remainder of the nation by the middle to
latter portion of next week. While it appears that this feature
could support significant surface cyclogenesis near or east of the
Atlantic Seaboard late next week, medium-range guidance continues to
suggest that any surface cyclogenesis over the interior U.S., east
of the Rockies, will remain modest to weak. A substantive inland
return flow of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico appears unlikely,
contributing to the maintenance of generally stable conditions and
low convective potential.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A relatively cool surface pattern will take shape
especially across the western CONUS today as the resides under the
influence of weak high pressure. Weak surface troughing will exist
in eastern New Mexico, while another weak cyclone organizes across
Missouri. Downsloping surface winds across southern/eastern New
Mexico may foster locally elevated fire-weather at times during
peak heating hours, although modest RH values should keep this
threat limited.
..Cook.. 12/11/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis... A substantial mid-level wave will amplify while
migrating southeastward across the central Rockies during the
forecast period. This wave will spread amplified mid-level
flow across portions of the southern Rockies and Plains during
peak-heating hours. Meanwhile, a surface low will organize over
New Mexico, though models suggest that much of it's intensification
will occur after dark. A strong surface high will also develop
over the Great Basin, though its duration will also be relatively
brief and an offshore gradient should organize mainly during the
06Z-12Z timeframe.
...Southern through eastern New Mexico... The aforementioned
surface pressure pattern and fast flow aloft will result in a few
areas of breezy to windy conditions across the region during the
afternoon, with 15-25 mph speeds likely. Meanwhile, a few areas
will experience near-critical RH values around that same time -
mostly likely across southeastern New Mexico but also possible in
localized areas of the Rio Grande Valley in central New Mexico.
Temperatures should warm just enough to foster elevated fire-weather
during the afternoon before cooling off in the evening.
...Southern California... The Great Basin high pressure area should
result in an offshore wind event in the 06Z-12Z timeframe across
favored coastal ranges of southern California. Fuels/ERCs remain
favorable for fire spread, though relatively cool surface conditions
and modestly low RH values should result in only locally elevated
fire-weather conditions during this time. Models suggest that this
offshore wind event should be relatively brief and weaken near/after
12Z Sunday.
..Cook.. 12/11/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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The human mind treats a new idea the way the body treats a strange protein --
it rejects it.
-- P. Medawar
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