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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.12.20 14:02z 227 Lines 10100 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 43066_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15 12
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<LU9HGS<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 201215/1400Z 43066@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Tue, 15 Dec 2020 10:09:02 +0000
Tue, 15 Dec 2020 10:09:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 15 10:09:02 UTC 2020.
Tue, 15 Dec 2020 10:08:06 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 15 10:09:02 UTC 2020.
Tue, 15 Dec 2020 10:08:05 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Mon Dec 14 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND GULF COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Outer and Inner Banks
vicinity of North Carolina and Gulf coastal areas of the northern
Florida Peninsula Wednesday, posing at least some risk for severe
weather.
...Synopsis...
As mid/upper flow continues to trend more zonal across Canada, a
broad west-northwesterly belt of westerlies emanating from the
mid-latitude Pacific will maintain considerable influence across
much of the U.S. through this period.This regime will include a
number of short wave troughs progressing inland of the Pacific
coast, and across and east of the Rockies.However, stable
conditions present across much of the nation are expected to
generally be maintained, to the north and west of a broad
northwestward sloping frontal zone initially extending across the
middle and south Atlantic Seaboard into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Aside from portions of northern Florida, the surface front is still
expected to be offshore.However, models indicate that low-level
moisture return will be ongoing above the frontal inversion, inland
of coastal areas, ahead of a vigorous remnant mid-level perturbation
rapidly accelerating northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley.
This may at least initially include a 90-100 kt 500 mb jet streak.
As the mid-level perturbation approaches the Mid Atlantic Coast
region during the day, associated large-scale forcing for ascent and
elevated moisture return may contribute areas of very weak CAPE, and
perhaps thermodynamic profiles supportive of scattered convection
capable of producing lightning.At the same time, one initial
surface frontal wave is expected to weaken while migrating inland
off the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, through northern Florida, as
another, initially off the South Carolina coast, undergoes
considerable deepening.The center of the developing cyclone may
migrate inland across parts of the North Carolina coastal plain by
late Wednesday afternoon, before redeveloping east of the Mid
Atlantic coast Wednesday night.
...Eastern North Carolina...
Due to lingering spread among the output of the various models, the
extent of severe weather potential for Wednesday remains at least
somewhat unclear.It still appears that the track of the deepening
surface cyclone may allow for at least a weakly destabilizing warm
sector boundary layer to overspread the Outer and Inner Banks
vicinity by Wednesday afternoon.If this occurs, deep-layer wind
fields and shear probably will become sufficiently strong to support
a risk for organized severe convection.
The 15/00Z NAM forecast soundings for the Morehead City and Cape
Hatteras vicinities (around the 16/21-23Z time frame) exhibit wind
profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and very large
clockwise curved low-level hodographs, which appear favorable for
supercells capable of producing a strong tornado.Output from other
models doesn't appear quite as favorable, but this will be monitored
in later outlooks for this time period.
....Northern Florida/Florida Peninsula...
Models continue to suggest that the environment over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico could become supportive of an organized
cluster of storms by 12Z Wednesday.It appears that this will
advect into coastal areas between Tampa and the Big Bend during the
day, in the presence of 30-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean
flow.Although inflow into a potentially vigorous leading line
probably will become characterized by progressively weaker CAPE
across the coastal waters and inland, there still appears at least
some potential that this activity could be accompanied by a risk for
damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado or two into coastal areas
before diminishing.
..Kerr.. 12/15/2020
Read more
Tue, 15 Dec 2020 05:55:29 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorm activity appears negligible across the
U.S., Thursday through Thursday night.
...Discussion...
A couple of branches of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude
Pacific will maintain a considerable influence across southern
Canada and the U.S. during this period. These will remain generally
zonal, with a number of embedded, progressive short wave
perturbations.
In the wake of a significant surface cyclone migrating east of the
northern Atlantic Seaboard, a trailing cold front is forecast to
advance through the remainder of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and
Florida Peninsula.And boundary layer conditions over much of the
northern Gulf of Mexico will remain relatively cool and dry.
Short wave troughs progressing east of the Canadian Rockies, and
across the U.S. Rockies, likely will contribute to surface
cyclogenesis across the Canadian Prairies, with deepening surface
troughing as far south as the southern Great Plains.While this
will be accompanied by a strengthening southerly low-level jet from
the Texas South Plains into Minnesota by late Thursday night, there
appears negligible potential for appreciable low-level moistening or
destabilization.
..Kerr.. 12/15/2020
Read more
Tue, 15 Dec 2020 07:28:34 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2020
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate increasing amplification
within branching flow, downstream of a persistent strong and zonal
mid/upper jet across the western and central, southern mid-latitude
Pacific.It appears that this will include building mid-level
ridging to the west of the U.S./Canadian Pacific coast by early next
week, though downstream short wave developments are more uncertain.
Regardless, there currently appears little opportunity for
substantive, deep Gulf of Mexico boundary-layer moistening and
inland return flow, which is expected to contribute to the
maintenance of generally low convective potential through the
period.
Read more
Tue, 15 Dec 2020 08:35:14 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
Offshore flow will continue across portions of southern California
throughout the day today as a high-pressure area migrates slowly
eastward from Nevada into Utah.Meanwhile, another vigorous storm
system will induce cyclogenesis across Texas today, sending a front
southward toward the Rio Grande Valley area and elevating surface
winds there for several hours.
...Southern California...
Latest high-resolution guidance continues to depict areas of
northeasterly surface flow in terrain-favored areas, with gusts to
around 25 mph at times.The flow pattern will also maintain a dry
airmass across the region, with RH values ranging from 15-25%
throughout the forecast period - potentially lower in localized
areas.Given the continued offshore flow pattern and very dry
fuels/high ERCs, an elevated delineation remains in place.
...Big Bend area of Texas...
The gradient between a weak low-pressure area over central Texas and
a high over the Rockies will result in a corridor of strong
northwesterly winds reaching 20-25 mph with a few higher gusts.
Additionally, the dry low-level airmass and modest warming will help
lower RH values into the 15-30% range - lowest along the Big Bend
area of Texas in the afternoon.Marginal ERCs/fuels guidance
suggests potential for some fire ignition/spread given the dry and
breezy conditions.Elevated to locally critical fire weather is
expected to be relatively short-lived however, as cold advection
will raise RH values dramatically across a substantial part of the
elevated delineation in the 21-02Z timeframe.
..Cook.. 12/15/2020
Read more
Tue, 15 Dec 2020 07:41:30 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
Generally quiescent fire-weather conditions are expected in most
areas on D2/Wed as a cool airmass overspreads much of the CONUS.
The lone exception will occur across southern California early in
the day as offshore flow exists in the early morning hours.
...Southern California...
Models continue to depict areas of 15-20 mph easterly surface flow
particularly in terrain-favored areas in the 12Z-18Z Wednesday
timeframe - strongest across the San Diego County Mountains and
vicinity.These surface conditions will exist amidst a very dry
low-level airmass, with minimum RH values around the 12-15% range
that should persist throughout the forecast period in most areas
even as wind fields lessen over time.An elevated delineation
remains in place to address this scenario.
..Cook.. 12/15/2020
Read more
Tue, 15 Dec 2020 07:42:21 +0000
+------------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS ----------------------------+
Slurm, n.:
The slime that accumulates on the underside of a soap bar when
it sits in the dish too long.
-- Rich Hall, "Sniglets"
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