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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.02.19 07:03z 158 Lines 8429 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18925_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 24 02
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190224/0701Z 18925@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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MD 0131 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST MN...CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WI...WESTERN U.P. OF MI
Mesoscale Discussion 0131 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0852 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019
Areas affected...Southeast MN...Central/Northern WI...Western U.P.
of MI
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 240252Z - 240815Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow will become widespread across the region later
tonight. Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour will be possible.
DISCUSSION...At 0230Z, a deepening cyclone is located over southeast
IA, with a well-defined band of heavy snow to the north and west
of the low across eastern NE/western IA into southern MN. As the
cyclone tracks northeastward, heavy snow rates will develop into
portions of central/northern WI after 03Z, and eventually into
the U.P. of Michigan after 06Z. Steep midlevel lapse rates (as
observed in 00Z OAX sounding and implied by scattered lightning
activity portions of IA/northern IL/southern WI) along the leading
edge of the dry slot and intense deep-layer ascent will continue
to support convective elements within the precipitation shield and
result in heavy snow rates of 1-2" per hour to the north and west
of the cyclone track as it moves towards the Great Lakes.
..Dean.. 02/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45139279 45429233 46299081 47518787 46948731 46298723
45578786 44868871 44518952 44239023 44099087 44109137 44109172
44189201 44399249 44689307 45139279
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN
OK 1025 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2019
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening...
* LOCATIONS... Northern and central Mississippi Western and middle
Tennessee Northwest Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana
* HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging
winds Isolated large hail
* SUMMARY... A few strong tornadoes, scattered damaging winds,
and isolated large hail are expected, primarily through this
evening across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley. The most dangerous period for tornadoes should be around
2 to 8 PM CST across northern Mississippi, southwest Tennessee,
and far northwest Alabama.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch
means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the
next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area,
move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room
on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143
PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible within a broader
area of low-topped convection across the Southeast today.
...Discussion... As an upper trough -- initially centered over the
Midwest/Upper Great Lakes -- progresses eastward/northeastward across
the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada, flow aloft will become
increasingly zonal with time across the remainder of the country.
At the surface, a cold front progged to be crossing the Appalachians
early in the period will continue to progress quickly eastward,
largely clearing the Atlantic coast by evening and trailing only
across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the period.
With stable continental air spreading across the central and eastern
U.S. in the wake of the front, a large portion of the country will
remain dry. The only area where it appears that lightning may
exceed 10% coverage is over the Southeast states, as the cold front
progresses eastward through a moist low-level environment. Though
weak lapse rates/minimal CAPE suggests mainly low-topped showers,
a few thunderstorms may occur within the broader area of convection.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.
..Goss/Dean.. 02/24/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144
PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the
Coastal Plain of Texas into Louisiana. Some thunder threat is
possible across northwest California into southwest Oregon.
...TX/LA...
Several weak mid-level disturbances are forecast to eject across
northern Mexico into south TX during the day2 period. While heights
will change little across the Coastal Plain, low-level warm advection
is expected to increase ahead of these features. Sustained warm
advection in association with an increasing LLJ will likely be the
primary forcing for convection across this region. Higher PW-air
mass should struggle to move inland and true surface-based buoyancy
will likely remain offshore. For these reasons it appears mostly
weak elevated thunderstorms will be possible much of the period.
...Pacific Coast...
Weak elevated buoyancy will develop within the warm conveyor of an
approaching upper trough. Short-range models suggest MUCAPE could
approach 200 J/kg across coastal northern CA into southwest OR ahead
of a sharp cold front. Forecast soundings suggest convection should
be rooted near 850mb and pose little risk of generating hail.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Darrow.. 02/24/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A deep upper trough covering much of the eastern half
of the CONUS at the start of the period will move eastward today,
while generally zonal westerly flow covers much of the West. At
the surface, a ridge will build into the Plains in the wake of the
departing cyclone over the Great Lakes/Northeast. Dry southerly flow
will develop to the west of the ridge axis across the southern High
Plains, but modest low-level flow and generally unfavorable fuel
conditions should preclude any substantial fire weather risk.
..Dean.. 02/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis... A slow-moving upper trough will persist over the
Pacific Northwest on Monday, while broad west-southwesterly flow
will cover much of the rest of the CONUS. At the surface, a ridge
will extend from the northern Plains into the Southeast, while a
weak low pressure system will develop over the southern High Plains.
...Northern NM into the western TX Panhandle... A modest increase in
low-level southwesterly flow is expected on Monday across portions
of northeast NM and the TX Panhandle, to the southwest of the weak
surface low. Elevated meteorological conditions will be possible
across portions of this region, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph
and minimum RH values in the 12-20% range. Uncertainty remains
regarding fuel receptivity across this area, but given that this
will be the second consecutive day of dry conditions, it is possible
that finer fuels will be sufficiently cured to support some fire
weather threat. A small elevated area has been included for this
scenario, though some adjustment may be required with time depending
on updated fuel conditions.
..Dean.. 02/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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