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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.12.20 15:03z 245 Lines 10818 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 43134_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16 12
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<LU9HGS<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 201216/1501Z 43134@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Wed, 16 Dec 2020 09:06:03 +0000
Wed, 16 Dec 2020 09:06:03 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 16 09:06:03 UTC 2020.
Wed, 16 Dec 2020 09:05:19 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Dec 16 09:06:03 UTC 2020.
Wed, 16 Dec 2020 09:05:13 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Tue Dec 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of
coastal North Carolina and the Gulf coastal areas of the northern
Florida Peninsula.
...Southeast...
Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the
southern/central Appalachians later today as a 100kt 500mb speed max
translates across northern GA into western NC. This feature is
currently located over the lower MS Valley, and in response a weak
surface low is expected to approach the FL Panhandle by mid day. A
brief opportunity for strong/locally severe storms will be noted
with the Gulf-moisture surge as weak buoyancy spreads inland ahead
of the initial surface low. Strengthening wind fields and
near-surface based instability suggest some threat for damaging
winds, and perhaps a tornado with any supercells.
Of more concern will be the Atlantic-moisture surge expected across
coastal NC. Latest model guidance suggests a surface low will
develop off the SC Coast early then lift north into eastern NC by
18z. Very strong wind fields will result in shear profiles favorable
for supercells and possible tornadoes. NAM forecast sounding for HAT
at 21z exhibits ~1200 J/kg SBCAPE just prior to low-level flow
veering to the southwest. While the storm mode will likely be
multi-faceted, with clusters and possible line segments, supercells
along with some tornado threat will be noted, especially across the
Outer Banks where buoyancy will be greatest.
..Darrow/Cook.. 12/16/2020
Read more
Wed, 16 Dec 2020 05:49:20 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Tue Dec 15 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Aside from parts of the Sierra Nevada Thursday morning, the risk for
thunderstorm activity appears negligible across the U.S. the
remainder of Thursday through Thursday night.
...Synopsis...
Much of North America will remain under the general influence of
belts of westerlies branching downstream of a strong mid/upper jet
across the western and central, southern mid-latitude Pacific.
Models indicate that these will remain largely zonal through this
period, but with a number of modestly amplified and progressive
short wave troughs.
In association with one of these features, a significant surface
cyclone is expected to be in the process of migrating east-north of
the northern Mid Atlantic coast early Thursday, with a trailing cold
front advancing through the remainder of the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico and Florida Peninsula during the day.In their wake, cool
surface ridging likely will prevail across much of the Gulf of
Mexico, with only modest boundary layer moistening over the
southwestern Gulf.Thus, despite strengthening southerly low-level
flow forecast through the Great Plains, coincident with deepening
surface troughing to the lee of the Rockies, there appears
negligible potential for appreciable low-level moistening and
destabilization.
...Parts of the northern Sierra Nevada...
Preceded by an influx of moisture, within a narrow plume emanating
from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical Pacific, a vigorous short
wave impulse is forecast to dig inland of the northern California
coast by 12Z Thursday.It appears that this will be accompanied by
an 80-90 kt cyclonic mid-level jet (around 500 mb), with strong
cooling and forcing for ascent in its left exit region spreading
southeast of the San Francisco Bay area into portions of the
northern Sierra Nevada Thursday morning.This may contribute to
sufficient destabilization to support low probabilities for
convection capable of producing lightning, particularly where aided
by orographic lift across the Sierra Nevada.
...Southern Florida...
Although weak boundary-layer CAPE may develop ahead of the
southeastward advancing cold front, particularly across southeast
coastal areas, weak low-level convergence and warm layers aloft
(especially near/above 500 mb) appear to preclude an appreciable
risk for thunderstorm Thursday.
..Kerr.. 12/16/2020
Read more
Wed, 16 Dec 2020 05:52:02 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A corridor from eastern Texas into portions of the lower Mississippi
Valley may see some weak thunderstorm activity late Friday night.
...Discussion...
Little change to the general mid/upper flow regime is expected from
Thursday into Friday.With stable conditions initially prevalent,
this will probably be maintained across most areas through the
period.
However, boundary-layer moistening ongoing across the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico early Friday likely will continue, with an
increasingly moist southerly return flow developing across and
inland of the northwestern Gulf coast Friday through Friday night.
This is expected to occur as one short wave trough, within the main
belt of westerlies impacting the U.S., progresses east of the
southern Rockies.
Models indicate that this trough will be accompanied by a 60-80 kt
cyclonic, southwesterly mid-level jet across the southern Great
Plains.To the equatorward side of this jet, relatively warm and
warming air aloft seems likely to initially cap the low-level
moisture return, which is also expected to be elevated above a
residual near-surface stable layer inland of the Gulf coast.While
the stronger mid/upper support for ascent will remain displaced well
to the north of the Gulf coast (across the central Great Plains into
the middle Mississippi Valley), it does appear that weak mid-level
cooling may begin to overspread the moistening southerly return flow
by late Friday night.This may yield scattered weak thunderstorm
activity from northeast Texas toward the Mississippi Delta, and
perhaps southward into upper Texas coastal areas, by 12Z Saturday.
..Kerr.. 12/16/2020
Read more
Wed, 16 Dec 2020 07:31:48 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2020
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Based on the latest model output, low pattern predictability appears
an increasing concern through this period.Short wave developments,
within branching flow downstream of a strong mid/upper jet across
the southern mid-latitude/subtropical Pacific, are becoming more
unclear.In general, though, guidance continues to suggest that
there will be increasing amplification within the flow, probably
including a prominent building mid-level ridge near the Pacific
coast by early next week.It appears that this may be followed by
downstream large-scale upper trough amplification across the central
and eastern U.S., perhaps accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis
east of the middle Missouri Valley through the Great Lakes region by
the middle of next week.
If this occurs, large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening
deep-layer wind fields and shear within the evolving warm sector
probably will become at least conditionally supportive of increasing
severe weather potential, somewhere east of the Mississippi Valley
into the Appalachians.It does still seem unlikely that there will
be opportunity for deep boundary-layer moistening over the Gulf of
Mexico, and substantive inland return flow to the warm sector, by
this time.While this may tend to minimize severe weather potential
with vigorous, deep convective development, it is possible that the
environment could still become conducive to damaging surface gust
potential enhanced by an evolving pre-cold frontal low-topped
convective line.
Read more
Wed, 16 Dec 2020 09:05:57 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
High pressure will migrate slowly eastward across the Great Basin
and central Rockies today.Meanwhile a surface trough along coastal
areas of California will also weaken through the afternoon.The
resultant offshore pressure gradient will result in a few areas of
elevated fire weather this morning across coastal ranges of southern
California.Elsewhere, seasonably cool/cold conditions and areas of
precipitation will limit fire-weather concerns across the remainder
of the Lower 48.
...Southern California...
The aforementioned offshore flow pattern will maintain a dry airmass
across much of the region through at least the afternoon hours, with
many areas experiencing sub-15% RH values by mid-afternoon.
Additionally, a few areas will experience 15-20 mph easterly surface
winds in terrain-favored areas through at least mid-morning before
slackening through the remainder of the day.ERCs remain high due
to a lack of precipitation, suggesting a risk of fire spread
especially where breezy conditions exist.
..Cook.. 12/16/2020
Read more
Wed, 16 Dec 2020 06:56:19 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Relatively quiescent fire-weather conditions are expected tomorrow.
Across California, flow is expected to become onshore and moisten
low-levels across previously dry areas largely due to an approaching
mid-level system.Farther east, an anticyclone will shift eastward,
maintaining relatively cool conditions in most areas.Lee troughing
will promote breezy conditions in the southern High Plains, although
it also appears that RH values will be too high (and fuels still too
moist from prior precipitation) for a fire-weather risk.
..Cook.. 12/16/2020
Read more
Wed, 16 Dec 2020 06:58:33 +0000
+------------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS ----------------------------+
Decision maker, n.:
The person in your office who was unable to form a task force
before the music stopped.
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