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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.12.20 20:27z 224 Lines 9572 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 43392_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18 12
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<LU9HGS<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 201218/2025Z 43392@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Fri, 18 Dec 2020 09:34:02 +0000
Fri, 18 Dec 2020 09:34:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 18 09:34:02 UTC 2020.
Fri, 18 Dec 2020 09:33:23 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 18 09:34:02 UTC 2020.
Fri, 18 Dec 2020 09:33:22 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Thu Dec 17 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible late tonight from parts of
the Texas Hill Country northeastward to the Arklatex. No severe
thunderstorms are expected.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level ridge will move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
today as an upper-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest.
Ahead of the western U.S. trough, weak moisture return will take
place across the southern Plains. A low-level jet is forecast to
strengthen across the eastern third of Texas tonight. In response,
lift may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development from
the Texas Hill Country northeastward to the Arklatex. However,
instability will be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere
across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is
not expected today or tonight.
..Broyles.. 12/18/2020
Read more
Fri, 18 Dec 2020 05:29:19 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Saturday through Saturday night.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A pair shortwave troughs, one initially extending across the Upper
Midwest and the other extending from south-central KS back into TX
Permian Basin, are forecast to be in place early Saturday morning.
The northern shortwave is expected to move gradually eastward over
the Upper Great Lakes and into southern Ontario. The southern
shortwave is expected to move quickly eastward across the southern
Plains, Lower MS Valley, and much of the Southeast. Another
shortwave trough will likely begin the period over the northern
Rockies before dropping quickly southeastward. This shortwave is
forecast to reach the central Plains by early Sunday morning.
Any thunderstorm potential across the CONUS will be associated with
the southern shortwave moving across the southern Plains, Lower MS
Valley, and Southeast. Cold front associated with this shortwave
will likely extend from a weak low over southeast OK/northeast TX
southwestward through the Edwards Plateau early Saturday morning.
Modest moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this front through
the early evening. During the evening, secondary cyclogenesis will
occur along the Upper TX coast, limiting the northward moisture
transport thereafter.
Modest, predominately elevated, instability will likely contribute
to isolated lightning strikes within the deeper cores over the warm
sector. Given that the majority of this activity will be rooted
around 850mb, the severe potential is expected to remain low. There
is a low probability that surface-based storms could develop along
the middle TX Coast ahead of the front. However, current expectation
is that any surface-based development will occur offshore.
..Mosier.. 12/18/2020
Read more
Fri, 18 Dec 2020 06:09:40 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of the central and
eastern Gulf Coast regions on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic upper flow is expected to be in place over the
central and eastern CONUS early Sunday morning. Two shortwave
troughs are forecast to exist within this troughing early Sunday,
one extending from the Upper OH Valley into AL/GA and the other from
the central Plains through southern High Plains. The lead shortwave
is forecast to continue northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic and
offshore while the shortwave continues southeastward through the
Mid/Lower MS Valley and TN Valley/Southeast.
A surface low is expected to be centered just off the southeastern
LA coast at the beginning of the period. This low will likely then
track gradually eastward very near the central Gulf Coast throughout
the day before shifting northeastward over northern FL and ending
the period just off the GA/SC coast. Given the expected path of this
low, inland penetration of the warm sector will be minimal. A few
lightning flashes are possible amid the weak buoyancy and modest
ascent near the surface low and along the attendant cold front. If
the system is more progressive, it could contribute to higher
lightning potential across central/southern FL. However, low
predictability limits expanding the thunder area into more of
central/south FL with this outlook.
..Mosier.. 12/18/2020
Read more
Fri, 18 Dec 2020 07:43:52 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Latest medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that
upper ridging over the western CONUS on D4/Monday will move eastward
across the central and eastern CONUS on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday.
Deep upper troughing is expected to develop across the Plains on
D6/Wednesday in the wake of the upper ridging. Further deepening is
anticipated as this upper trough continues eastward over the eastern
CONUS on D7/Thursday.
A strong cold front is forecast to accompany this upper trough. This
front is currently expected to move through much of the Plains on
D5/Tuesday, the MS, TN, and OH Valleys on D6/Wednesday, and off the
East Coast D7/Thursday. Moisture return ahead of the upper trough
and attendant cold front is currently expected to be modest and
confined to central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. This limited
moisture return will temper severe potential. However, subtle change
in timing could result in higher potential, particularly given the
anticipated strength of the system.
Read more
Fri, 18 Dec 2020 09:33:26 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplified yet somewhat progressive midlevel pattern will remain
across the United States on Friday. Within this broader flow regime,
a trough will eject from the Rockies into the Plains, with neutral
to slightly rising heights developing across much of the West in
response.
At the surface a cold front will move south through the Plains, with
weak surface cyclogenesis occurring along the front across the
southern High Plains. Farther west, high pressure will remain in
place across much of the Great Basin.
... Southern California ...
The aforementioned higher surface pressure across the Great Basin
will help drive a favorable pressure gradient pattern for offshore
flow across the area. Despite winds gusting in excess of 40 mph in
terrain-favored locations, relative humidity looks to remain high
enough to avoid critical fire-weather conditions. However, given the
marginally low relative humidity and strong offshore flow, elevated
to locally critical fire-weather conditions may occur.
... Southern/Southeast New Mexico and West Texas ...
As the aforementioned midlevel trough traverses the region, a
corridor of enhanced flow will move across this area. The
orientation of the flow will support downslope-enhanced
warming/drying in the presence of strong/gusty winds. The result
will be elevated fire-weather conditions.
..Marsh.. 12/18/2020
Read more
Fri, 18 Dec 2020 07:36:31 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...
Yet another in a series of midlevel shortwave troughs will move into
the central United States on Saturday continuing to maintain a broad
eastern United States trough. Farther west a midlevel anticyclone
will approach northern California, yielding northeast flow in the
low-to-midlevels across southern California.
At the surface, surface high pressure across the Great Basin will
begin to weaken and move east, somewhat relaxing the favorable
pressure gradient supporting southern California offshore winds.
... Southern California ...
Another day of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions
will occur on Saturday as another day of dry offshore flow yields
lower relative humidity as compared to Friday, despite somewhat
weaker winds. Minimum relative humidity values should fall into the
10-15% range, with locally lower values possible. Lighter winds than
Friday should preclude the need for critical fire-weather
highlights.
..Marsh.. 12/18/2020
Read more
Fri, 18 Dec 2020 07:40:32 +0000
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