| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 26.12.20 20:43z 107 Lines 5670 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 500_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26 12
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<KE0GB<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201226/2000Z 500@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
MD 1882 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY DOWNSTREAM
OF LAKE ONTARIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1882 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020
Areas affected...Portions of western NY downstream of Lake Ontario
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 261008Z - 261615Z
SUMMARY...A developing band of heavy snow will shift southward
this morning across a small part of western NY downstream of Lake
Ontario. Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour appear likely.
DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence and strong west-southwesterly
winds along Lake Ontario are supporting a developing heavy snow
band across a small part of western NY early this morning. The
thermodynamic profile in the low levels is characterized by steep
lapse rates from the surface through at least 750 mb along with
saturation. This should easily support heavy snowfall rates of
2-3 inches per hour for several hours within the core of the band.
Current expectations are for this heavy snow band to maintain its
intensity while shifting southward across the Tug Hill Plateau
vicinity this morning, as a shortwave trough advances eastward
over the lower Great Lakes and the low-level flow veers to a more
westerly direction over Lake Ontario.
..Gleason.. 12/26/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...
LAT...LON 44027646 44227637 44407594 43987545 43537550 43477586
43517632 43747644 44027646
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653
AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight in
the contiguous United States.
...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move inland
this morning over southern OR/northern CA, and over the northern
Great Basin this afternoon. A few lightning flashes have been
noted with convection overnight near the northern CA coast and
inland near Mount Shasta, but the lightning has been rather sparse.
While additional isolated flashes will be possible, the expected
coverage of thunderstorms both this morning across northern CA and
later today across southern ID, is too low to warrant adding an
outlook area. Otherwise, a cold/dry continental air mass across
the Gulf and Atlantic coasts will preclude thunderstorms.
..Thompson.. 12/26/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
The medium-range models move an upper-level trough across the
Four Corners region on Tuesday as a low-level jet strengthens in
the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward
into the central Plains as a surface low moves northeastward into
the mid Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible
along and ahead of the front from Kansas southward into Oklahoma and
Texas during the late afternoon and evening. Weak moisture return
should minimize the severe potential in most areas. The greatest
severe threat may be confined to north-central Texas where surface
dewpoints could reach the mid to upper 50s F.
The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the High
Plains on Wednesday as the cold front advances quickly southeastward
into the Arklatex and mid Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts suggest
a line of thunderstorms will be likely ahead of the front during
the afternoon. As this line interacts with a moist airmass over the
lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, a severe threat could
develop. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong
large-scale ascent and abundant deep-layer shear may be sufficient
for a wind damage threat. At this time, the greatest potential would
be in east Texas eastward across southern Louisiana during the late
afternoon. Uncertainty is significant and if instability remains
very weak ahead of the line, then the severe threat could be minimal.
...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... Model forecasts move the
upper-level trough into the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday
as the moist sector shifts eastward across the eastern Gulf Coast
states. Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday ahead a cold front
from Mississippi eastward to Georgia. Storm development could also
occur in parts of the Carolinas. The greatest potential for a severe
threat would be in Georgia where surface dewpoints are forecast to
reach the 60s F. If instability remains very weak across the moist
sector, any severe threat could be minimal.
On Friday and Saturday, a progressive upper-level trough is forecast
to move from the southern Rockies eastward to the lower Mississippi
Valley. Model forecasts suggest that moisture return ahead of the
system will be minimal, which could limit any severe potential
ahead of the trough.
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
I would rather spend 10 hours reading someone else's source code
than 10 minutes listening to Musak waiting for technical support
which isn't.
-- Dr. Greg Wettstein, Roger Maris Cancer Center
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
