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LU9DCE > ALERT 27.12.20 17:23z 119 Lines 5870 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 566_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 27 12
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<IZ5FSA<IK5FKA<LU9HGS<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 201227/1700Z 566@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053
PM CST Sat Dec 26 2020
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday night along
the central California coast.
...Central CA Coast...
Exit region of a 110+kt 500mb speed max will spread across the
central CA coast during the latter half of the period. Strongly
diffluent flow aloft, and steepening lapse rates after 28/00z, will
become increasingly favorable for convective development immediately
ahead of a cold front that should surge toward the coast by the end
of the day1 period. Forecast soundings suggest weak surface-based
buoyancy will be sufficient for a few lightning flashes with the
strongest updrafts, especially with near-frontal convection. This
activity will not spread very far inland before sunrise.
..Darrow.. 12/27/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235
AM CST Sun Dec 27 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday
along the coast of southern California but no severe threat is
expected.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move east-northeastward
from near the central coast of California into the Intermountain
West on Monday. A trough extending southwestward from the
low will approach the coast of southern California during the
afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible within a
plume of mid-level moisture associated with the trough. The chance
for lightning will gradually increase southeastward along the
coast from Santa Barbara into the Los Angeles vicinity during
the day. Instability will be weak which will limit any severe
potential. Elsewhere across the continental United States,
thunderstorm development is not expected Monday or Monday night.
..Broyles.. 12/27/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218
AM CST Sun Dec 27 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and
hail may develop across parts of west-central Texas Tuesday evening
into the overnight period.
...Southern Plains... The northern part of an upper-level trough is
forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday as
southwest mid-level flow strengthens across the southern Plains. In
response, a 40 to 60 kt low-level jet will develop in the southern
Plains, resulting in some moisture return across central and west
Texas Tuesday afternoon and evening. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to advance quickly southeastward into west Texas by Tuesday
evening. Increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front along
with weak destabilization should result in convective development
from southwest Oklahoma into the Low-rolling Plains of west-central
Texas. Although deep-layer shear will likely increase into the 70
to 90 kt range, instability is forecast to remain weak ahead of the
front. Forecast soundings Tuesday evening into the overnight period
across west-central Texas increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. This
could be enough for a marginal severe threat in the vicinity of San
Angelo as thunderstorms develop and increase in coverage along the
cold front Tuesday evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts would
be the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 12/27/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2020
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... In the wake of a shortwave trough that will move
into the mid-Mississippi Valley, a surface high and cold front
will move south through the southern Plains today. Dry conditions
will exist ahead of the front in the southern High Plains. However,
winds will generally be light within the drier air and the stronger
surface winds will be in the cool/moist post-frontal environment. No
appreciable fire weather concerns are expected.
..Wendt.. 12/27/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... For Monday, a broad upper-trough will move into
the Southwest. A surface trough will deepen in response within
the Four Corners. With the recent cold front moving into the Rio
Grande Valley, the potential for critical dry/windy atmospheric
conditions appears very limited with this system. Any locally
elevated conditions that do develop will be restricted to the
narrow corridor between the approaching Pacific cold front and the
existing boundary retreating eastward. Elsewhere within the CONUS,
fire weather concerns will be minimal.
..Wendt.. 12/27/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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DOS: n., A small annoying boot virus that causes random spontaneous
system
crashes, usually just before saving a massive project.
Easily cured by UNIX. See also MS-DOS, IBM-DOS, DR-DOS.
-- David Vicker's .plan
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