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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.12.20 17:59z 130 Lines 6844 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 649_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28 12
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<I0BLC<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 201228/1700Z 649@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107
PM CST Sun Dec 27 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coast
of southern California.
...Southern California...
Strong mid-level height falls are forecast to spread across southern
CA early in the day1 period as a strong 500mb speed max translates
toward the lower CO River Valley. Along and north of this jet,
cooling profiles and steepening lapse rates will become increasingly
favorable for weak convection. Forecast soundings along the southern
CA coast suggest surface-based convection is possible within an
environment characterized by a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Lightning
probabilities will gradually sag south during the day, ultimately
waning during the late evening hours near the international border.
..Darrow.. 12/28/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255
AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and
hail may develop across parts of west-central Texas Tuesday evening
into the overnight period.
...West-central Texas... An upper-level trough will move eastward
across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday as southwest mid-level flow
remains in place across the south-central United States. Ahead of
the system, a broad low-level jet will strengthen across the southern
and central Plains. As a result, moisture will return northward into
Texas during the day on Tuesday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to
increase into the 50s F by late afternoon from west-central Texas
eastward across much of the Texas Hill Country. In response, a pocket
of weak instability is forecast to develop near San Angelo during
the late afternoon and early evening. Convection that initiates
along a cold front is forecast to develop southeastward into this
pocket of instability during the evening. NAM forecast soundings
near and to the south of San Angelo in the late evening and early
overnight period, increase MUCAPE into the 500 to 750 J/kg range and
have effective shear near 60 kt. This could be enough for a marginal
severe threat with hail and strong wind gusts as the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 12/28/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204
AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and
hail will be possible late Wednesday afternoon across parts of the
Texas Coastal Plain.
...Texas Coastal Plain... An upper-level low is forecast to move
east-southeastward across northern Mexico on Wednesday as southwest
mid-level flow remains in place from the southern Plains into
the Arklatex. Strong low-level flow will be maintained across
the Texas Coastal Plain resulting in an increase in moisture
during the day. Surface dewpoints are forecast increase into
the 60s F across much of the Texas Coastal Plain as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Model forecasts suggest that the
strongest instability will develop during the late afternoon from
near Brownsville northward to near Austin, where MLCAPE could exceed
1000 J/kg. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop along the front in
the afternoon due to increasing surface temperatures and enhanced
low-level convergence. Additional convection could initiate to the
south of the front across southern sections of the Texas Coastal
Plain. In this area, MLCAPE of 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear near 50 kt
and steep lapse rates above 700 mb would be enough for a marginal
severe threat. The threat for hail and strong wind gusts would be
greatest from near Victoria northward to between Austin and College
Station between 21Z/Wed and 00Z/Thu.
..Broyles.. 12/28/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will move through the
southern Great Basin and into the Southwest today. At the surface
a trough will develop within the Four Corners with a Pacific
front moving through the region into Tuesday. A remnant cold front
currently situated roughly in the Rio Grande Valley will shift north
and east as a warm front as southerly/southwesterly flow increases
in the vicinity of the NM/AZ border. A narrow corridor from far
southeast AZ into south-central NM may see RH reduced to around 20%
with surface winds of 15-20 mph. With ongoing drought, areas of dry
fuels remain present. The greatest potential for sustained elevated
conditions exists within areas of sparse fuels. Concerns over more
fuel-dense areas should be brief and local.
..Wendt.. 12/28/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The upper-level trough across the Four Corners
will continue southeast on Tuesday. The accompanying surface
trough/Pacific front will follow a similar track into the
Plains. Slightly stronger pressure falls across the Trans-Pecos
region will increase southwesterly surface winds to perhaps near 20
mph in a few locations. With downslope off of the Mexican Plateau
and Davis Mountains, RH could fall to around 20% as well. With
ongoing drought in the region, fuels remain dry. As with Monday,
the corridor these conditions may occur in will be narrow between
the Pacific front and High Plains surface trough/dryline. Elevated
fire weather concerns are expected to remain local and brief from
the Rio Grande Valley into the southern Trans-Pecos.
..Wendt.. 12/28/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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