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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.02.19 07:02z 69 Lines 3447 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18960_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 25 02
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190225/0700Z 18960@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151
PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible in a few areas
today -- mainly tonight across the Coastal Plain of Texas into
southern Louisiana and MS.
...Discussion... Flow aloft across the U.S. is forecast to remain
largely zonal/westerly through the period, with surface high pressure
affecting much of the CONUS east of the Rockies in the wake of a
prior/strong frontal passage.
A few lightning strikes could occur across south Florida near the
remnant cold front, and over portions of northern California on the
southern fringe of a Pacific Northwest upper low. Greater lightning
coverage may evolve overnight, across portions of the western
and central Gulf Coast region, as low-level warm advection atop
a stable boundary layer is enhanced by the passage of a very weak
disturbance moving out of south Texas across the Gulf Coast area.
Severe weather is not expected.
..Goss.. 02/25/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156
PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected
across portions of the southern Gulf States Tuesday.
...Gulf States...
Several notable mid-level disturbances are expected to track across
northern Mexico into the Gulf States region over the next few days.
One feature is forecast to influence south-central TX by 26/18z,
shifting east across LA into AL/FL Panhandle by 27/12z. In response
to this short wave, modified Gulf air mass should advance north as
a warm front sharpens near the coast, then moves inland during the
latter half of the period. Low-level warm advection is forecast to
increase north of the boundary and this will likely be the primary
forcing mechanism for elevated convection through the period.
Forecast soundings across this region suggest mid-level lapse rates
will approach 8 C/km across east TX which should support MUCAPE on
the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Robust elevated thunderstorms could
evolve ahead of the short wave as moisture advection atop cooler
boundary layer contributes to increasingly unstable profiles. Warm
advection thunderstorm clusters will be common near the Gulf coast
and the strongest updrafts could produce marginally severe hail.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Darrow.. 02/25/2019
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Have a place for everything and keep the thing somewhere else; this is not
advice, it is merely custom.
-- Mark Twain
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