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LU9DCE > ALERT 29.12.20 19:00z 152 Lines 8156 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 715_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29 12
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<W0ARP<KF5JRV<KE0GB<W4GON<LU4DRH<LU9DCE
Sent: 201229/1700Z 715@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139
PM CST Mon Dec 28 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.
...Southern Plains...
Positive-tilt upper trough is digging southeast across southern CA
late this evening and should settle into northern Mexico during
the latter half of the period. The strongest 500mb flow will not
translate through the base of the trough until later day2 into day3
which will allow this feature to eject toward south TX at that time.
Prior to this trough ejecting northeast, weak mid-level height
falls will overspread the Plains which should encourage a weak
lee surface low to migrate off the CO High Plains into the Edwards
Plateau during the overnight hours.
Strengthening LLJ across TX is expected to aid northward movement of
modified Gulf moisture such that upper 50s surface dew points will
return to northwest TX into extreme southwest OK by 30/00z. While
the latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer
heating will be noted across this region, convection may struggle to
organize until the cold front surges south during the late evening.
Prior to the frontal forcing, warm advection will be the primary
mechanism for scattered weak convection across the southern Plains.
Forecast soundings across northwest TX after sunset suggest
near-surface based buoyancy is likely, however instability should
remain weak given the modest lapse rates. Even so, organized
convection should ultimately evolve along/immediately behind the
front as it surges south, encouraged by southerly 850mb flow atop
the front. While small hail and perhaps some gusty winds could
accompany the most organized storms, weak instability should limit
the overall severe threat.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/29/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237
AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and
hail will be possible late Wednesday afternoon across parts of the
Texas Coastal Plain.
...Texas Coastal Plain... An upper-level trough will move eastward
across northern Mexico on Wednesday as southwest mid-level flow
remains in place across the southern Plains and Arklatex. A low-level
jet will be maintained across the Texas Coastal Plain as a cold
front advances southeastward across the Texas Hill Country. Surface
heating and increasing low-level convergence along the front, will
result in thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Model
forecasts suggest a pocket of moderate instability will develop
between Victoria and San Antonio by afternoon. Thunderstorms are
forecast to initiate south of the front and move northeastward
across this pocket of instability. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z
on Wednesday between Victoria and San Antonio have MLCAPE peaking
near 1500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 50 kt and steep mid-level
lapse rates above 700 mb. This may be enough for a marginal severe
threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible with storms
that grow upscale in areas that achieve maximum destabilization.
..Broyles.. 12/29/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220
AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat
and wind damage will be possible Thursday into Thursday night from
far southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and across
the central Gulf Coast States.
...Southeast Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast
States... An upper-level low will move from northern Mexico
into the southern Plains on Thursday. Divergent flow aloft will
overspread eastern Texas and Louisiana as the negatively-tilted
system deepens. A large cluster of thunderstorms appears likely
to be ongoing in southeast Texas at the start of the period. This
convection is forecast to move eastward as a low deepens and moves
northeastward into the Arklatex. Although instability will be weak
along the attendant surface trough, strong deep-layer shear will
create conditions favorable for severe storms. Lift associated with
a mid-level jet, rounding the base of the upper-level system, will
provide additional support for organized storms. As the mid-level
jet moves eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday,
thunderstorm development is expected to occur across parts of
Louisiana and Mississippi.
Instability is forecast to gradually increase across the moist
sector, which should be located from Louisiana to southwestern
Alabama. Discrete thunderstorms that develop ahead of the cold
front across the moist sector could have a wind damage and tornado
potential. During the late afternoon, the most favorable area would
be in far southeast Louisiana, where the models maximize instability
at the northern end of the moist axis. The corridor of maximized
low-level moisture is forecast to shift eastward across southern
Mississippi and southern Alabama during the evening and overnight
period. Models suggest the possibility of a convective line located
along the moist axis. This line would be associated with a continued
wind damage and tornado threat during the overnight period.
..Broyles.. 12/29/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper-level trough within the Great Basin/Four
Corners will amplify as it moves southeastward today. A surface
trough will develop in the southern High Plains which will eventually
evolve into a broad surface low as it progresses along the Rio Grande
Valley. In between the Pacific front approaching from the west and
the surface trough/dryline in the High Plains, a narrow region of
dry, downslope winds are probable in the Davis Mountains vicinity.
RH of 15-20% is possible along with 15-20 mph winds. However,
these elevated conditions are expected to remain local and brief.
Elsewhere in the CONUS, fire weather concerns will be minimal.
..Wendt.. 12/29/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Shortwave troughs will impact areas of the Northeast,
western Gulf Coast, and the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Overall,
cooler temperatures and recent/expected precipitation will keep the
risk for fire spread low across the CONUS. Early in the period, weak
to moderate offshore flow is probable across southern California
as high pressure briefly intensifies in the Great Basin/central
Rockies. Aside from the recent precipitation in the region, strong
winds early in the period are not well phased with drier air moving
in during the afternoon, precluding highlights.
..Wendt.. 12/29/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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> I've hacked the Xaw3d library to give you a Win95 like interface
and it > is named Xaw95. You can replace your Xaw3d library.
Oh God, this is so disgusting!
-- seen on c.o.l.development.apps, about the
"Win95 look-alike"
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