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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.01.21 17:50z 215 Lines 11809 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 935_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<I0BLC<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210101/1700Z 935@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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MD 0006 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR EASTERN KS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MO...WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0006 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021
Areas affected...eastern KS...central/northern MO...west-central IL
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 010833Z - 011330Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy freezing rain is expected to shift
northward across eastern KS into central/northern MO and west-central
IL through the early morning hours.
DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy freezing rain has been noted recently
across southeast KS toward the I-44 corridor in southwest and
central MO. Freezing rain rates have been as high as 0.05 in/hr in
these locations. A more pronounced/stronger deformation region has
developed northward toward the I-70 corridor from eastern KS into
central MO as the upper low continues to shift northward from north
Texas into southern OK, and is evident in water vapor loops over
the past hour. As midlevel moistening continues, freezing rain will
develop northward and increase in intensity through early morning.
Forecast soundings suggest precipitation type should predominantly
be freezing rain. However, some sleet or snow could mix in at times
as modest midlevel cooling occurs on the back side of the mid/upper
low, resulting in a deepening isothermal layer around 900-750 mb.
Once freezing rain begins, rates greater than 0.05 inches per 3
hours are expected for several hours.
..Leitman.. 01/01/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38299632 38719617 39179535 39379493 39859363 40269171
40329089 40209034 39958996 39638990 38829040 38279114 37739213
37269334 37159455 37329560 37629611 37989626 38299632
MD 0000 CONCERNING
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137
PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may pose a modest risk for locally
strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two over a portion of the
Southeast States today.
...Southeast States...
Shortwave trough will be situated over eastern OK at the start of
this period and this feature will continue northeast into southern
IL by early evening. By 12Z a weak surface low will be located
near Memphis with trailing cold front extending through eastern
MS into the central Gulf. A warm front will extend east through
northern MS and AL, north central GA and into southern SC. This
low will track northeast and occlude across northern KY by early
evening. The warm front will lift north into Middle TN today where
surface dewpoints will reach the low 60s F, with mid to upper 60s
with southward extent into the Gulf Coast states. Cold air damming
across the western Carolinas will limit northward advance of the
warm front in that region. Despite the moistening boundary layer,
warm-sector instability will remain very marginal due to very
weak lapse rates and widespread low clouds. Similar to Thursday, a
significant limiting factor will result from lack of phasing between
the deeper forcing attending the northeast-ejecting shortwave trough
and the moist warm sector which will remain under the influence of
an expansive mid-upper level dry slot.
A band of convection including a few thunderstorms will likely be
ongoing across a portion of western and middle TN. This activity
will be embedded within favorable vertical shear profiles for severe
storms including supercells, but updrafts will likely be at least
slightly elevated above a stable near-surface layer. Farther east and
south, additional thunderstorms will be ongoing along the conveyor
belt from Middle TN southward through AL and the FL Panhandle. This
activity will shift slowly east during the day. While some of this
convection may become rooted in the boundary layer, especially with
southward extent through AL, the impinging dry slot and very marginal
thermodynamic environment will probably limit updraft and storm
intensity despite strong vertical shear profiles. Nevertheless,
some of this activity might produce a few instances of locally
strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two during the day.
..Dial/Squitieri.. 01/01/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200
AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday. A
strong storm may graze the Outer Banks of North Carolina early
Sunday morning.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will
move from the Southern Plains 12Z Saturday across the lower
Mississippi Valley by 00Z and northeastward across the Appalachians
overnight. Meanwhile, a fast-moving, compact shortwave trough will
proceed east across New England during the day.
At the surface, a cold front from the eastern wave will move
southward toward the NC/SC border by 00Z, while another front
lingers from central GA into the FL Panhandle. Preceding the
stronger trough, temperatures aloft will not be particularly cool,
which when combined with only lower to possibly mid 60s F dewpoints
will result in little SBCAPE.
Storms are expected to be ongoing near the front early Saturday
across the eastern FL Panhandle, with further development of rain and
thunderstorms across GA and the Carolinas during the day. Forecast
soundings indicate very poor lapse rates, so much so that there may
be minimal lightning. As such, severe weather is not expected there.
Overnight and as the upper trough swings northeast across the
Appalachians, dewpoints may rise slightly across far eastern NC in
response to a weak low developing there. Point soundings near the
coast suggest surface based parcels may not be far off, but the most
likely scenario is for the stronger convection to remain offshore.
If later model runs suggest better surface-based destabilization
inland than currently forecast, low severe probabilities may be
considered for far eastern NC as shear will become strong.
..Jewell.. 01/01/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125
AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning over
eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.
...Synopsis... As one shortwave trough moves from the OH Valley into
the Northeast, another will move from the southern Plains into the
southeast. Low pressure over eastern NC at 12Z Sunday will deepen
offshore during the day, enabling the cold front to move quickly
offshore. This front will trail southwestward across FL, but forecast
soundings reveal poor lapse rates and drying winds from the west.
Meanwhile, heights will fall overnight across the Pacific Northwest
as a positive-tilt upper trough approached the WA/OR coasts. While a
few lightning flashes are possible in this region over the Pacific
Ocean, the greatest chance of isolated thunderstorms will be early
in the day over far eastern NC and southeastern VA.
...Eastern NC and southeastern VA... While height falls with the
shortwave trough will be focused from VA northward, a moist air
mass with 60-65 F dewpoints will exist ahead of the front over
eastern NC. Forecast soundings show parcels are likely to remain
elevated over land, the exception being the Outer Banks. A small
time window will exist between 12Z and 15Z Sunday for storms in this
area, with the bulk of the activity offshore. Shear will be strong,
but low-level winds will quickly veer to southwesterly, reducing SRH
over land. While the threat of an isolated severe storm is non-zero,
it remains highly conditional. North of the low, minimal elevated
instability may be present for a few lightning flashes into VA.
..Jewell.. 01/01/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION... Various models such as the ECMWF and GFS are in
relatively good agreement with the large-scale pattern through the
period, depicting little chance of thunderstorms on Monday/D4 and
Tuesday/D5 as an upper trough departs the East with high pressure
at the surface.
By Wednesday/D6, an amplified upper trough is forecast to progress
across the Plains, with height falls strongest over the central
and southern Plains. By this time, the antecedent surface ridge
will have moved to the East Coast, with southerly surface winds
bringing mid 50s F dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex. Even
so, forecast MUCAPE is only on the order of a few hundred J/kg,
and the instability plume is to be quite narrow, resulting in low
predictability.
This trough is expected evolve into a cut-off low on Thursday/D7
over the OH/TN Valleys, with strong westerly winds aloft across
the Southeast. It appears moisture quality will be a concern across
this region, thus predictability remains low despite strong shear.
By Friday/D8, any remaining moisture and instability over the
Southeast is forecast to be shunted offshore as the pattern remains
progressive.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Recent widespread precipitation (including wintry
accumulations), along with cooler surface temperatures associated
with high pressure ushered in behind a mid-level trough will mitigate
widespread fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS. Modest
offshore flow, mainly during the morning hours, may promote brief
instances of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions
of the Ventura Valley area in southern California. Nonetheless,
widespread 0.75+ inch precipitation accumulations within the past
few days suggest that fuels will be marginally supportive at best
for fire-spread potential.
..Squitieri.. 01/01/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeast
U.S, promoting widespread rainfall, while a small mid-level impulse
ejects into the Southern Plains states tomorrow afternoon. A surface
low is expected to develop across the southern High Plains, with
dry westerly downslope flow expected across portions of eastern
New Mexico into far western Texas. An Elevated delineation has
been introduced, as the latest model guidance depicts 15-20%
RH overlapping 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by
afternoon peak heating. While some guidance suggests that Elevated
conditions may extend farther east into Texas, recent precipitation
accumulations may dampen fuels. As such, Elevated conditions will
be withheld for now farther east in Texas.
..Squitieri.. 01/01/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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<rm_-rf_> The real value of KDE is that they inspired and push the
development of GNOME :-)
-- #Debian
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