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LU9DCE > ALERT 02.01.21 17:01z 145 Lines 7482 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1011_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02 01
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<LU9HGS<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 210102/1700Z 1011@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200
AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms with gusty winds are
possible from the eastern Florida Panhandle into southeast Georgia
late this afternoon into the evening.
...Northern Florida through southeast Georgia...
A front will stall from the NC coastal area southward through the
eastern or central FL Panhandle. A weak surface low is forecast to
develop along this boundary near the FL Panhandle by early evening
in response to glancing influence of forcing for ascent associated
an upper jet rotating northeastward through the Southeast States.
This weak low will subsequently develop northeast along this front
during the overnight, reaching the NC coast by 12Z Sunday. A moist
warm sector with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place in
this region, but instability will remain very marginal with MLCAPE
from 200-300 J/kg due to poor lapse rates, widespread clouds and
areas of showers. These showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing from the coastal SC through the central FL
panhandle. This activity will increase in coverage and intensity
toward evening as the southwesterly low-level jet strengthens across
the eastern FL Panhandle into southeast GA. Low-level hodographs
and effective bulk shear will become more than sufficient for
organized storms. A strong wind gust or two and perhaps a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out. However, the severe threat is expected
to remain limited by the very marginal thermodynamic environment.
..Dial/Squiteiri.. 01/02/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234
AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning over
eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.
...Synopsis and Discussion... The main feature of interest Sunday
will be an upper low that will move from OH into western NY by 00Z,
with negative-tilt trough extending to the Mid Atlantic by that
time. At the surface, a weak low will exist over eastern NC at 12Z
Sunday, with a cold front extending southward into northern FL. The
front will move offshore by midday, with rapid drying across the
remainder of the Southeast.
Ahead of the front and prior to 18Z, low and possibly mid 60s F
dewpoints will exist, resulting in weak instability. However, lapse
rates will be poor, and given the rapid veering of the low-level
winds with time, the threat of strong storms, and thunderstorms in
general, appears minimal.
..Jewell.. 01/02/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212
AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible
Monday across the coastal Pacific Northwest and into parts of
northern California.
...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will remain amplified, yet
progressive on Monday, with an upper trough over the Southeast
and a secondary wave moving eastward across the Great Lakes. This
will reinforce high pressure from the Plains into the Southeast,
providing stability with continued offshore flow.
To the west, significant height falls will occur during the day from
northern CA into the Pacific Northwest as an amplified shortwave
trough moves ashore around 00Z. Cool air aloft combined with lift
from a cold front may result in isolated to scattered low-topped
showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest lightning flash
density likely offshore. Low-level lapse rates over land will be
relatively poor with little to no heating due to increasing clouds
and precipitation. Due to the weak instability, severe weather is
not anticipated.
..Jewell.. 01/02/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION... On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough is likely to
be situated over the East, with shortwave ridging over the MS Valley
occurring in advance of an amplifying Plains upper trough. Due to
a prominent surface ridge over the eastern states, thunderstorms
are unlikely.
As the Plains trough develops eastward toward the Arklatex and lower
MS Valley on Wednesday/D5, a deepening cut-off low is forecast to
form, with a cold front moving across east TX and becoming occluded
into AR and LA. Instability is forecast to be weak (at or below 200
J/kg) by the ECMWF across OK and TX, and even less as the narrow
moist sector shrinks with the occlusion. In addition, capping will
be a concern for thunderstorms in general.
Severe potential does not appear to get any better as the trough
continues eastward across the Southeast into Thursday/D6 and
Friday/D7, with minimal moisture return the primary limiter.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the southeast
U.S while a smaller mid-level impulse ejects into the southern
Plains during the day. Surface low development is expected across
the southern High Plains, with modestly dry and breezy conditions
expected across portions of the southern High Plains during
afternoon peak heating. An Elevated area has been maintained
along the New Mexico/Texas border, as 15-20 mph sustained westerly
winds are still expected to overlap 15-20% RH for at least a few
hours. Otherwise, cooler conditions will prevail across the western
CONUS, with wetter conditions expected across the eastern CONUS,
limiting major wildfire-spread concerns.
..Squitieri.. 01/02/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the
southeast CONUS while an upper ridge develops across the southwest
U.S. tomorrow. While weak surface lee troughing will meander across
the Plains states, high pressure will dominate across the western and
eastern U.S., promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions
across much of the CONUS. The one exception may be across portions
of eastern New Mexico, where locally Elevated conditions may occur
across western portions of the Llano Estacado during afternoon peak
heating due to downslope flow.
..Squitieri.. 01/02/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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MS-DOS, you can't live with it, you can live without it.
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