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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.01.21 17:01z 132 Lines 6438 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1091_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 03 01
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<LU9HGS<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 210103/1700Z 1091@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140
PM CST Sat Jan 02 2021
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. today
or tonight.
...North Carolina coastal area...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be ongoing along warm conveyor
belt in vicinity of and just ahead of a cold front across a portion
of the NC coastal area at the start of this period. While strong
vertical shear will support a conditional threat for a couple
of organized storms, the very marginal thermodynamic environment
will limit the severe potential. Activity should move offshore by
mid morning.
...Florida...
A few showers will occur along the southwestern extension of the cold
front as it continues southeast through the FL Peninsula during the
day. However, the convective layer will likely remain too shallow
for an appreciable thunderstorm threat.
..Dial.. 01/03/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135
PM CST Sat Jan 02 2021
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible
Monday across the coastal Pacific Northwest and into parts of
northern California.
...Synopsis... Strong cooling aloft/height falls will occur
through 00Z over WA, OR and northern CA as a shortwave trough moves
ashore. Convergence near a cold front will be maximized along the
OR and northern CA coastal areas, and this is where low-topped
thunderstorms are most likely. Forecast soundings indicate
MLCAPE around 100 J/kg eventually developing over southwest OR and
coastal northern CA as lapse rates steepen with the rapid cooling
aloft. Low-level winds will likely veer by this time, resulting
in long hodographs. Gusty winds are possible with the heavier
convection, but severe chances appear low at this time.
Elsewhere, offshore surface winds will result in stable conditions
over much of the central and eastern states with high pressure at
the surface.
..Jewell.. 01/03/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155
PM CST Sat Jan 02 2021
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely across the continental
U.S. on Tuesday.
...Synopsis... A progressive pattern will persist on Tuesday with
an upper trough departing the East and another trough crossing the
Rockies into the Plains. High pressure will already be in place
over the East, with another reinforcing high over the Great Basin.
Meager low-level moisture return is forecast to occur Tuesday night
across TX, with a shallow layer of 50s F dewpoints possible by 12Z
Wed into central TX. This will occur ahead of a cold front preceding
the northern/central Plains upper trough. Despite the low-level
moistening, there is no chance of thunderstorms as capping will
remain prominent with a cool boundary layer.
..Jewell.. 01/03/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Sun Jan 03 2021
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough with closed low will be
situated over the central and southern Plains on Wednesday/D4 and
will move across the lower MS Valley on Thursday/D5. This system
will continue east across the remainder of the Southeast through
Friday/D6, exiting the CONUS by 00Z Saturday/D7.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to be situated over
eastern/coastal TX by 00Z Thursday/D5, and over southern MS by 12Z
Thursday. Ahead of this front, only meager low-level moisture return
is indicated, with minimal SBCAPE and a warm sector shrinking from
north to south due to occlusion. For the duration of this upper low
over land, it appears instability will be minimal, thus potential
is currently too low for any severe probabilities.
Another amplifying upper trough is shown by the models into the
southern Plains on Saturday/D7, then moving across the Deep South and
northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday/D8. However, given the progressive
pattern, there will be little opportunity for sufficient moisture
return and destabilization, thus potential remains low for severe
storms through Sunday/D8.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Sun Jan 03 2021
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeast states
today while a ridge aloft builds over the southwest CONUS. High
pressure will dominate the surface pattern for much of the southeast
and southwest U.S, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather
conditions. The one small exception may be localized downslope flow
along the southern Rockies across central into eastern New Mexico,
with brief Elevated fire weather conditions possible by afternoon
peak heating.
..Squitieri.. 01/03/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Sun Jan 03 2021
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A progressive upper weather pattern is expected for
the Day 2/Monday period, with mid-level troughs moving across the
western and eastern U.S, and an upper ridge translating across the
Plains states. At the surface, high pressure and cooler temperatures
are expected to dominate much of the central and southern U.S,
limiting major wildfire-spread concerns.
..Squitieri.. 01/03/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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The new Linux anthem will be "He's an idiot, but he's ok", as
performed by Monthy Python. You'd better start practicing.
-- Linus Torvalds, announcing another kernel patch
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