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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.01.21 17:01z 138 Lines 7247 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1158_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<W0ARP<KF5JRV<N7HPX<
LU9DCE
Sent: 210104/1700Z 1158@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140
PM CST Sun Jan 03 2021
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
possible along the northern California and Pacific Northwest coastal
areas as well as the northern Sierra Nevada, mainly this afternoon.
A shortwave trough will move through northern California and the
Pacific Northwest region today accompanied by cold air aloft and
steepening mid-level lapse rates. Weak destabilization is expected
especially near the coastal areas where diabatic heating and moist
onshore flow will occur, resulting in MLCAPE from 200-300 J/kg.
Strong vertical shear will accompany the shortwave trough, but there
will be a tendency for winds in the near surface to 700 mb layer to
weaken as the atmosphere destabilizes near the upper trough axis.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in
this regime, especially during the afternoon, but the thermodynamic
environment is expected to remain too marginal for a severe threat.
..Dial.. 01/04/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136
PM CST Sun Jan 03 2021
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely across the continental
U.S. on Tuesday.
...Synopsis... As a progressive, high-amplitude pattern persists,
high pressure will maintain stable conditions across the CONUS on
Tuesday, with centers over the MS Valley and Great Basin. Therefore,
while a positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains
Tuesday night, instability will be not be present to support any
thunderstorms.
Elsewhere, height falls will occur into Wednesday morning over
coastal WA, with any lightning flashes offshore.
..Jewell.. 01/04/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225
AM CST Mon Jan 04 2021
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and night from eastern Texas into Louisiana and southwest
Mississippi. A few stronger storms are possible over southeast
Texas during the afternoon.
...Synopsis and Discussion... On Wednesday, a positive-tilt upper
trough will be situated over the central and southern Plains,
and will move eastward toward the lower MS Valley by 12Z Thursday,
providing large-scale lift. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure
will stretch from the OH Valley to the central Gulf Coast Wednesday
morning, and will move slowly eastward with time.
A cold front will precede the southern Plains upper trough, with
weak low pressure forming from eastern TX into LA and MS. Primarily
mid 50s F boundary-layer dewpoints are expected ahead of this front,
with low 60s F along the TX and LA coasts leading to a few hundred
J/kg SBCAPE. Farther inland, elevated instability is also expected to
develop with MUCAPE of 100-250 J/kg, mainly north of the cold front.
The most favorable combination of SBCAPE and shear will develop over
parts of southeast Texas during the afternoon. Here, winds will veer
with height, with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH developing, which may
support isolated severe storms. The cold front will be the primary
forcing mechanism, and will likely undercut developing storms. Given
this, and uncertainties regarding boundary-layer moisture quality,
will maintain sub-severe probabilities.
..Jewell.. 01/04/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Mon Jan 04 2021
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, an upper low is forecast to
move from AR in the morning toward the southern Appalachians by
Friday/D5 morning, with strong westerly winds aloft across the Gulf
states. Meanwhile, a surface low will move from MS to SC, with an
occluded front trailing south from the low. Low-level moisture will
be meager ahead of this front, with the mid 50s F dewpoints forecast
to remain largely offshore. As such, severe weather is unlikely.
For Friday/D5 to Monday/D8, the shortwave trough over the Southeast
will quickly move offshore, with high pressure producing offshore
winds across the Gulf of Mexico. Another shortwave trough is forecast
to move from the Pacific Northwest on Friday/D5 toward the southern
Plains by Sunday/D7. Models differ as to how far south this trough
will dig, but in general, the northwest flow pattern aloft combined
with antecedent surface ridging suggest little/poor low-level
moisture return, and minimal severe threat.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Mon Jan 04 2021
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Upper troughs will be traversing the eastern and
western CONUS, while a mid-level ridge will overspread the Plains
states today. Widespread high pressure and cool conditions will
prevail across much of the CONUS. While a drier surface airmass
is expected across portions of eastern New Mexico/western Texas
and the Florida Peninsula, surface wind fields are expected to be
weak (i.e. widespread sustained winds less than 15 mph). As such,
quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are expected to prevail across
the CONUS through the day.
..Squitieri.. 01/04/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Mon Jan 04 2021
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface lee
troughing are expected to amplify across the central U.S, while upper
ridging and associated surface high pressure will dominate the west
and east CONUS through the Day 2/Tuesday period. Dry downslope flow
to the lee of the southern Rockies is expected by afternoon peak
heating across the southern High Plains.
...Southern High Plains... While most guidance members depict
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across southeastern
Colorado into eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, limited
guidance suggests that RH will drop to widespread Elevated
thresholds. Elevated highlights have been withheld for now. Should
more guidance members depict widespread RH dropping below 20%,
an Elevated area may be introduced in future outlooks given the
presence of modestly dry fuels.
..Squitieri.. 01/04/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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All language designers are arrogant. Goes with the territory...
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