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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.01.21 17:02z 201 Lines 11055 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1222_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05 01
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<LU9HGS<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 210105/1701Z 1222@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145
PM CST Mon Jan 04 2021
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental
U.S. today.
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic
as a second trough aloft traverses the Plains states through the
day. Surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will
promote widespread atmospheric stability across much of the CONUS,
with little in the way of deep, moist convection expected. Some
low-topped convection may produce a couple of flashes just off
of the North Carolina coast this afternoon as the aforementioned
trough aloft departs the region. However, the greater concentration
of flashes will likely be over sea. Similarly, an upper trough will
also approach the West Coast towards the end of the period, promoting
widespread ascent and associated potential for a lightning flash
or two off of the California coast. However, very scant buoyancy
suggests that any flashes that do occur will be too sparse to
warrant general thunder delineations at this time.
..Squitieri.. 01/05/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158
PM CST Mon Jan 04 2021
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and night from eastern Texas into Louisiana. A few stronger
storms are possible over southeast Texas during the afternoon.
...Synopsis... A surface ridge will extend from the Great Lakes
into the southeastern states as shortwave ridging occurs aloft. To
the west, an amplifying upper trough will move into the southern
Plains with a positive tilt, then will become negatively tilted
late Wednesday night as it moves into the lower MS Valley.
At the surface, a weak low is forecast to form over eastern TX
during the day, with a cold front pushing through the remainder
of east/south TX by 03Z. Ahead of the front, 50s to lower 60s F
dewpoints will exist, but moisture trajectories will remain poor
due to dry air over the Southeast. The combination of lift with the
upper trough, favorable shear and sufficient instability may result
in isolated severe storms during the afternoon over southeast TX.
Elsewhere, height falls will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a
shortwave trough moves ashore by 00Z. Cold midlevel temperatures and
existing moisture at 700 mb may support sporadic elevated convection
with lightning flashes over western OR during the day.
...Southeast TX... Height falls will occur throughout the day
as the shortwave trough approaches. The strongest cooling aloft
will generally occur north of the Houston area, with the low 60s F
dewpoints extending southwest along the TX Coast. Forecast soundings
show several hundred J/kg of SBCAPE developing ahead of the cold
front by late afternoon, and storms should increase in coverage
along and perhaps just behind the cold front as it advances east.
The most favorable combination of sufficient instability and stronger
shear is forecast over southeast TX during the afternoon. Here,
isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible, and perhaps a brief
tornado if cells do not get undercut by the front. Instability will
quickly wane during the evening as the front continues east, but
elevated storms will remain possible overnight into LA and MS.
..Jewell.. 01/05/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232
AM CST Tue Jan 05 2021
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible Thursday from southeast
Louisiana eastward into Georgia and northern Florida.
...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, a shortwave trough with
closed low centered over AR will move east across the southeastern
States, and into GA by 12Z Friday. Strong westerly winds aloft
will exist south of the upper low, with up to 80 kt winds at 500
mb within the jet core. Temperatures at 500 mb will be as cold as
-20 C along the central Gulf Coast, steepening midlevel lapse rates.
The presence of high pressure over the Southeast ahead of this
upper trough will retard low-level moisture return, and also limit
low-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front
over southern MS, AL and the FL Panhandle indicate that the most
unstable parcels may remain elevated, with minimal SBCAPE. Given this
cool boundary layer, severe storms appear unlikely. However, shear
will conditionally be favorable for supercells and even tornadoes
if better-than-expected moisture return occurs, and the low remains
over land. In this case, isolated supercells could not be ruled
out along the immediate MS/AL/FL Panhandle coasts. Will defer any
potential risk areas to later updates when predictability increases.
Elsewhere, elevated instability may develop over parts of the
Pacific Northwest Thursday night as a powerful midlevel jet noses
into northern CA, with 500 mb temperatures dropping to -30 C.
..Jewell.. 01/05/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Tue Jan 05 2021
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement for the Friday/D4 to
Sunday/D6 period, and show an upper trough exiting the Mid Atlantic
Friday/D4. High pressure will be in place from the Plains into the
East behind this wave, and in advance of the next upper trough. This
second trough is forecast to move from the Four Corners into the
southern Plains during the Saturday/D5 to Sunday/D6 period, and
indications are that there will be no appreciable low-level moisture
return over land. As a result, thunderstorm chances appear minimal
through Sunday/D6.
While model spread increases significantly beyond Sunday/D6, the
existing pattern does not appear to support severe thunderstorms with
the potential for several reinforcing surface highs and fast-moving
shortwave troughs.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CST Tue Jan 05 2021
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis... Mid-level troughs will be moving across the eastern
CONUS and Rockies while a ridge aloft traverses the West Coast/Great
Basin areas through the period. Widespread surface high pressure and
associated cooler temperatures are expected to promote relatively
quiescent fire weather conditions west of the Rockies and across
the eastern CONUS. However, surface lee troughing across the
Plains is expected to promote dry downslope flow along the lee
of the southern Rockies, where modest wildfire spread potential
exists. Dry conditions also appear possible for portions of the
Florida Peninsula.
...Southern High Plains... Downslope flow along the lee of the
southern Rockies may promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly winds
coinciding with RH dropping as low as 20-25% in spots. While RH is
marginal overall, strong enough flow, along with receptive fuels
(given the ongoing exceptional drought), suggest that enough
wildfire-spread potential will be in place to warrant a low-end
Elevated area. Elevated conditions will be most likely by afternoon
peak heating, when boundary-layer mixing and associated downslope
flow are maximized.
...Florida Peninsula... Widespread 45% RH is expected across much
of the Florida Peninsula, with some areas potentially seeing 30-35%
values. The lack of meaningful precipitation accumulations in the
past 1-2 weeks also suggests that fuels may marginally support some
wildfire-spread potential. Nonetheless, surface wind fields appear
weak, with most areas seeing sustained west-northwesterly winds
struggling to exceed 10 mph, even by afternoon peak heating. As
such, an Elevated area has been withheld, though very localized,
brief instances of Elevated conditions cannot be ruled out.
..Squitieri.. 01/05/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CST Tue Jan 05 2021
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves from the
Plains states to the Southeast, while a second trough aloft will
traverse the Inter-mountain West tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high
pressure will build west of the Rockies while a surface low develops
and intensifies across Texas. While cool surface conditions west
of the Rockies, and moist surface conditions across the eastern U.S
will limit wildfire-spread potential, dry and breezy flow behind a
cold front is possible across the southern High Plains. Dry offshore
flow induced by a surface pressure gradient may also be observed
across southern California, with dry air also meandering across
the Florida Peninsula.
...Southern High Plains... As a cold front sweeps south across
the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon, a brief period
of Elevated conditions (i.e. 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly
surface winds overlapping 15-25% RH) may be observed across far
eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The brevity of the
most favorable wind/RH overlap precludes Elevated highlights at
this time. However, should guidance depict longer lasting Elevated
conditions than currently anticipated, Elevated highlights may be
introduced in future outlooks.
...Southern California... Offshore flow induced by a surface
pressure gradient may promote 15-25% RH and 15-25 mph sustained
surface winds in terrain-favoring locations of the southern
Transverse Ranges, particularly for the first half of Wednesday. The
primary factor precluding Elevated highlights are the marginal fuels
(given recent meaningful precipitation accumulations).
...Florida Peninsula... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, 30-45% RH values
are expected by afternoon peak heating across several parts of the
Florida Peninsula. Marginally receptive fuels and the lack of a
supporting wind field however, suggest that an Elevated delineation
is not currently warranted.
..Squitieri.. 01/05/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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<Culus> aIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11 <Culus> MY LIGHT JUST DIED
<Culus> I AM SO SAD <Culus> I'm blind! I'm blind! <dark> Light?
<dark> Turn all your xterms to black-on-white :) Plenty of light
that way.
-- Seen on #Debian
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