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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.01.21 17:09z 161 Lines 8426 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1353_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 07 01
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<LU9HGS<LU3DVN<LU4DRH<W4GON<W9GM<
KK4DIV<AL0Y<KD8FMR<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 210107/1705Z 1353@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132
PM CST Wed Jan 06 2021
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA COAST...
...SUMMARY... A very low/conditional threat for a damaging gust or
brief tornado exists across the mouth of the Mississippi eastward
to just south of the Florida Panhandle coast during the day, and
the western Florida Peninsula tonight.
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Southeast
states, with a 75 kt 500 mb jet overspreading the Florida Panhandle
through the period. A surface low will also progress across the
Deep South. A 35+ kt 850 mb jet will encourage modest warm air
advection and marginal elevated buoyancy to move inland and promote
some lightning flash potential. However, with the latest guidance
depicting more surface based instability struggling to move ashore,
severe potential will likely be limited to areas immediately
offshore. However, as a cold front approaches the western coast
of the Florida Peninsula during the late evening (after 03Z),
some surface-based instability may advect inland ahead of a
confluence band, where more organized thunderstorm potential will
exist. Elsewhere across the CONUS, A mid-level trough, accompanied
by deep-layer ascent and very modest buoyancy may encourage a couple
lightning flashes across portions of the Pacific Northwest shoreline.
...Portions of Florida today into tonight... The surface cold
front and an associated arcing band of low-topped convection are
expected to be positioned across the mouth of the Mississippi at
the start of the period (12Z). While the 40+ kt southerly low-level
jet, bisected by the stronger westerly mid-level flow, will result
in ample deep-layer shear for storm organization, surface-based
instability (500 J/kg MLCAPE at best) is expected to remain well
offshore, as will the risk for a damaging gust or tornado. As such,
a Marginal risk has been maintained south of the Gulf shoreline.
By late evening, low 60s F dewpoints are expected to advect inland
along the western Florida coastline, contributing up to 500 J/kg
MLCAPE in spots despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates. Modest
veering in the sfc-850 mb layer ahead of the cold front suggests
that any of the more sustained storms may acquire brief instances
of rotation. As such, a Marginal risk has been introduced for the
possibility of a damaging gust or perhaps a brief tornado. However,
buoyancy quickly deteriorates with eastward extent, and storms
are expected to gradually weaken after 06Z per latest CAM guidance
consensus.
..Squitieri/Darrow.. 01/07/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131
PM CST Wed Jan 06 2021
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... There is little chance of thunderstorms over the
continental United States on Friday.
...Synopsis... An upper trough will be situated over the Southeast
on Friday, and will move off the coast late in the day. At the
surface, low pressure will already be off the SC/NC coast Friday
morning, and will deepen as it continues northeastward. Although
high pressure will maintain a stable boundary layer over the region,
moisture wrapping around the low may result in sufficient elevated
instability for isolated lightning flashes mainly over NC. However,
there will be little risk of appreciable thunderstorm activity.
Elsewhere, an upper jet will nose southeastward from northern CA
into the Great Basin during the day, with height rises along the
West Coast and a cessation to any early day convective activity
over western OR. An isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled out
during the afternoon over northern NV along a cold front and north
of the midlevel jet, but the air mass will remain very dry.
..Jewell.. 01/07/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120
AM CST Thu Jan 07 2021
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible late Saturday night
over parts of central Texas. Severe weather is not expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move southeast
across the Four Corners and into northwest TX by Sunday morning, with
a cyclonically curved speed max nosing into west TX by 00Z. Strong
height falls will occur over much of TX overnight, increasing lift.
While very little boundary-layer moisture return will occur ahead
of this system due to a surface ridge over the Gulf of Mexico,
forecast soundings do yield minimal elevated MUCAPE as a southerly
low-level jet increases moisture advection aloft. At least isolated,
non-severe thunderstorms are expected after 09Z roughly along I-35
in TX, but weak instability will limit severe potential.
..Jewell.. 01/07/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Thu Jan 07 2021
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement with the
large-scale pattern through most of the D4-D8 period, beginning with
a shortwave trough over TX on Sunday/D4. This wave will proceed
across the southeastern and Mid Atlantic through Tuesday/D6, with
northwest flow developing over the Plains beyond Tuesday/D6. Further
upper trough amplification is hinted at across the Plains toward
Thursday/D8.
Regardless of the precise timing of these waves, models agree the
limiting factor will continue to be the lack of instability and
low-level moisture over land. As the pattern remains progressive,
there will be little time in between waves for sufficient
destabilization. Thus, potential is likely to remain too low through
the period.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CST Thu Jan 07 2021
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and surface cyclone will move
across the southeast states while multiple troughs aloft and surface
high pressure dominate the central and western CONUS. Wet conditions
across the eastern U.S, with colder temperatures across most of
the central and western CONUS are expected to limit significant
wildfire-spread potential. The one exception may be the southern
Transverse Ranges across southern California, where dry offshore flow
will continue across terrain-favoring locations, and where finer
fuels are gradually drying from precipitation accumulations over
the past few weeks. Nonetheless, even these dry/breezy conditions
are expected to be brief and localized enough to preclude fire
weather highlights at this time.
..Squitieri.. 01/07/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CST Thu Jan 07 2021
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow and surface high pressure
will prevail across the southern U.S through the Day 2/Friday
period. Cool, quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across
most of the CONUS. However, with a pressure gradient remaining in
place across southern California, dry offshore flow is expected
to continue in terrain-favoring areas. While the dry and breezy
conditions are expected to remain too localized/brief for fire
weather highlights, the aforementioned conditions will contribute
to the continued drying of finer fuels across the area.
..Squitieri.. 01/07/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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