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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.02.19 07:03z 97 Lines 5068 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19001_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 26 02
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190226/0700Z 19001@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139
PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/elevated severe thunderstorms are
expected across portions of the western and central Gulf Coast from
Tuesday afternoon though early Wednesday morning.
...Synopsis... Largely zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail
across the U.S. today, though portions of the Northeast and Pacific
Northwest will be influenced by low-amplitude upper troughing.
Embedded within the westerly flow aloft, a weak short-wave
disturbance is progged to cross the southern Plains through the
day, and then the Gulf Coast region overnight. This feature will
influence the primary region of deep convective weather today.
Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across much of the country,
with thunderstorms not expected.
...Southeast Texas into the central Gulf Coast region... With a
cool/stable boundary layer expected to persist inland, the approach
of the aforementioned short-wave upper trough will result in an
increase in low-level warm advection/isentropic lift atop the
surface-based stable layer. Correspondingly, a gradual increase
in shower/thunderstorm activity is forecast across the region
through the day and into the evening/overnight. Eventually,
a few stronger storms are expected to evolve across the area,
aided by the eastward advection of EML air providing steeper lapse
rates/increasing elevated CAPE. With deep-layer shear sufficient
for organized updrafts, some risk for hail remains apparent, and
thus will maintain 5%/MRGL risk across the region at this time.
Currently, it appears that the higher theta-e Gulf airmass will
remain offshore, and thus little risk for inland surface-based
convection is evident. In addition, the low-amplitude nature of
the system, and corresponding lack of appreciable surface response,
will yield rather weak low-level flow/shear. Therefore, little if
any surface-based severe risk would be expected even if Gulf air
were to spread inland into the southern-most reaches of coastal
Louisiana overnight.
..Goss.. 02/26/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146
PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of
the Gulf States region east of Texas during the day2 period.
...Gulf States...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over southeast AZ/northwest Mexico, moving east in line
with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to progress
across TX into the lower MS Valley region by the start of the
day2 period. Scattered convection is expected to evolve ahead of
the short wave later Tuesday and remnants of this activity should
propagate into southern MS/FL Panhandle by sunrise Wednesday morning.
Boundary-layer air mass currently located across this region will
need considerable modification before sufficient buoyancy exists
to support robust organized updrafts. Latest thinking is air
mass across the FL Big Bend region and adjacent northern FL will
struggle to destabilize prior to the early-day influence of the
progressive short wave. Large-scale forcing for ascent should spread
across northern FL prior to appreciable destabilization; although,
convective clusters will likely evolve due to the focused forcing.
If, or until, it becomes more clear that buoyancy will be greater
than expected, it appears severe threat will remain below 5%.
A secondary short-wave trough will approach the lower MS Valley
during the latter half of the period. This feature will likely
enhance convective threat north of early-day convective boundary
that should settle toward the Gulf Coast. Buoyancy north of this
boundary will likely be inadequate for robust updrafts.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Darrow.. 02/26/2019
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Avoid gunfire in the bathroom tonight.
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