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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.01.21 17:02z 127 Lines 6524 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1435_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08 01
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<IV3BVK<N3HYM<KC9VYU<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210108/1700Z 1435@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114
PM CST Thu Jan 07 2021
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunder probabilities will remain low during the
day1 period.
...Synopsis...
Extensive cloudiness and broad off-continent flow will be noted
through the day1 period. As a result, minimal buoyancy will preclude
any significant thunderstorm threat. However, strong large-scale
forcing for ascent is expected to spread across southern OR/northern
CA into the Great Basin later today. Weak elevated convection should
be noted within the exit region of a 95kt 500 mb jet that should dig
into NV during the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest adequate
mid-level moistening for convection north of the jet. While a flash
of lightning can not be ruled out, probabilities for thunderstorms
should remain less than 10 percent.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 01/08/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131
PM CST Thu Jan 07 2021
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible late Saturday night
over parts of central Texas, with isolated lightning flashes possible
over coastal Oregon as well. Severe weather is not expected.
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move southeast across
the Four Corners and into northwest TX by Sunday morning, with
a cyclonically curved jet max nosing into west TX by 00Z. Strong
height falls will occur over much of TX overnight, increasing lift.
Very little boundary-layer moisture return will occur ahead of this
system due to a surface ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, but forecast
soundings do yield minimal elevated MUCAPE as a southerly low-level
jet increases moisture advection aloft. Isolated, non-severe
thunderstorms are expected after 09Z over parts of central TX,
but weak instability will limit severe potential.
Elsewhere, cold temperatures aloft with an upper trough will affect
western WA and OR into Sunday morning, with perhaps a few lightning
flashes near the coast as a front approaches.
..Jewell.. 01/08/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229
AM CST Fri Jan 08 2021
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... General thunderstorms are possible from parts of
southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. Severe weather is unlikely.
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across TX and
toward the lower MS Valley on Sunday, providing strong southwest flow
aloft along with height falls. Ahead of this trough, a cool/stable
air mass due to high pressure will exist, and will prevent any
appreciable destabilization. Models indicate the surface low
associated with this trough will remain over the northern Gulf
of Mexico, thus there is little chance of SBCAPE developing over
land. However, weak elevated instability is expected to develop
from southeast TX into southern LA, supporting general thunderstorm
activity.
..Jewell.. 01/08/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CST Fri Jan 08 2021
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION... A weakening shortwave trough will move from
TX across the Southeast during the Monday/D4 to Tuesday/D5
period, with a weak surface low moving from the northern Gulf
Coast at 12Z Monday/D4 to just off the Outer Banks of NC by 00Z
Wednesday/D6. Given the cool/dry air mass in place ahead of this
system, little if any surface-based instability is forecast to
develop.
For the remainder of the period Wednesday/D6 to Friday/D8, models
show a stable pattern will continue with several days of offshore
flow across the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast. While models disagree
on whether there will be a closed upper low or a large upper trough
over the eastern CONUS, very low heights and strong northwest flow
over the Plains will aid in prolonging the cool and stable pattern.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Fri Jan 08 2021
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Cool/moist conditions are expected across most of
the CONUS which will preclude fire weather concerns. The exception
will be portions of the Southwest where warm and dry conditions are
expected, but winds are expected to be light. Some weak offshore
flow is expected in southern California, but the threat for large
fires is minimal due to only marginally strong winds and moist
fuels due to recent rainfall.
..Bentley.. 01/08/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Fri Jan 08 2021
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak is expected to
cross the Southwest on Saturday with cyclogenesis expected in
New Mexico. This cyclogenesis will lead to a strengthening surface
pressure gradient on Tuesday across the Southwest. This will lead to
windy conditions across most of the Southwest. The strongest winds
(20+ mph) are expected where the mid-level jet streak overspreads
the area and deep mixing transports some of these stronger winds
to the surface. At this time, this area appears most likely to be
in eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. In addition, relative
humidity is expected to be 10 to 15 percent in this area.
..Bentley.. 01/08/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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> What does ELF stand for (in respect to Linux?) ELF is the first
rock group that Ronnie James Dio performed with back in the early
1970's. In constrast, a.out is a misspelling of the French word
for the month of August. What the two have in common is beyond me,
but Linux users seem to use the two words together.
-- seen on c.o.l.misc
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