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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.01.21 17:31z 162 Lines 8712 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1493_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<N3HYM<KC9VYU<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210109/1700Z 1493@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127
PM CST Fri Jan 08 2021
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible this
afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern Rockies into
central and southeastern Texas, and perhaps near northern California
coastal areas.
...Synopsis... Another initially vigorous short wave impulse,
emerging from a strong mid-latitude Pacific jet, appears likely
to progress into amplified branching flow across the eastern
Pacific into western North America during this period. As it does,
models indicate that it will weaken substantially and split, with
one portion accelerating north-northeastward across the British
Columbia coast, and another turning eastward, inland across the
southern Oregon/northern California coast. It appears that this
will be accompanied by a weakening surface front preceded by a
moist plume emanating from the subtropical Pacific, though richer
moisture return may become cut-off before reaching the Pacific coast.
Downstream, and ahead of inland advancing mid-level ridging,
the fairly vigorous southern portion of a preceding perturbation
is forecast to dig across the southern Rockies into the Permian
Basin by late tonight. Models suggest that this will be preceded
by moisture return emanating from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
However, this initial moistening is expected to be elevated above
a cool and dry low-level environment.
Beneath otherwise broadly confluent mid/upper flow across and east
of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to prevail across
much of the U.S., in the wake of a cyclone migrating northeastward
away from the Mid Atlantic coast. This will maintain generally
stable conditions across most areas, with negligible risk for
severe thunderstorms.
...Texas... Particularly east of the Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country vicinity, forecast soundings indicate that initial
moistening will largely be rooted in the 850-700 mb layer. However,
beneath modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, it appears that this
may contribute to thermodynamic profiles marginally sufficient for
weak convection capable of producing lightning. Aided by mid-level
warm advection ahead of the approaching short wave impulse, this
may initiate across parts of south central Texas into the middle
Texas coastal plain this evening, before spreading northward and
northeastward through tonight.
Farther west, mid-level cooling in the exit region of the cyclonic
jet accompanying the short wave impulse may contribute to scattered
weak thunderstorms across parts of the Edwards Plateau and Hill
overnight.
...New Mexico... The mid-level cold core of the digging short wave
trough is forecast to overspread the higher terrain of northwestern
through south central New Mexico today. This may contribute to
weakly unstable thermodynamic profiles at least marginally conducive
to convection capable of producing lightning this afternoon.
...Pacific Northwest... Latest model output suggests that the
mid-level cold core with the splitting/weakening inland advancing
perturbation may not be particularly cold, with richer moisture
return becoming cut off before reaching coastal areas. This seems
to limit the potential for thunderstorms. However, a couple of
lightning flashes might still be possible late tonight across
southern Oregon/northern California coastal areas, coincident with
the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent.
..Kerr.. 01/09/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140
PM CST Fri Jan 08 2021
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... General thunderstorms are possible Sunday from
southern Texas into southern Louisiana. Severe weather is unlikely.
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough with cyclonically curved speed max
will move east across TX and toward the lower MS Valley on Sunday,
providing strong winds aloft and large-scale lift. Ahead of this
trough, east/northeast surface winds will maintain a cool/stable air
mass with high pressure, preventing any appreciable destabilization
along the Gulf Coast. Models clearly show the surface low remaining
over the Gulf of Mexico, with little if any SBCAPE over land. Despite
this, southerly winds and moisture advection above the surface
will likely result in weak elevated instability, supporting at
least isolated elevated thunderstorms across much of southern and
eastern TX and perhaps southern LA.
..Jewell.. 01/09/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250
AM CST Sat Jan 09 2021
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Little if any thunderstorm activity is expected
across the continental U.S. on Monday.
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves
from the lower MS valley toward the Mid Atlantic on Monday, with a
broad belt of strong mid and upper-level southwesterlies over the
southeastern states. At the surface, a stable air mass will remain
in place over land, despite a weak surface low moving across northern
FL and southern GA into Tuesday morning. Dewpoints downstream of the
low are only expected to reach the 45-50 F range, resulting in very
little SBCAPE for thunderstorms. While weak warm/moist advection
will occur above 850 mb across GA and the Carolinas Monday night,
forecast soundings show very little elevated instability. As such,
thunderstorm chances will be minimal.
..Jewell.. 01/09/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CST Sat Jan 09 2021
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION... While model solutions show disagreement with
upper-level features across the northern Plains on Tuesday/D4,
they are in general agreement with the presence of a dry, stable
air mass over much of the central and eastern states as a midlevel
speed max exits the Mid Atlantic. This will result in little if any
thunderstorm activity, regardless. The ECMWF and GFS actually come
into better agreement into the Thursday/D6 to Saturday/D8 period,
showing a large-scale upper trough over the East. If this pattern
verifies, it will ensure a continued lack of severe-weather potential
through the period.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CST Sat Jan 09 2021
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis... A compact mid-level shortwave trough will
dig into the Southwest today with surface cyclogenesis in New
Mexico. Some strengthening surface flow is expected across southern
Arizona/southern New Mexico during the afternoon as the pressure
gradient strengthens and as deep mixing transports some of the
stronger mid-level flow to the surface. Winds of 15 to 25 mph are
expected with relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent. Stronger winds
and drier conditions are also expected farther north, but cool air
is expected to infiltrate the area to limit fire weather concerns.
Offshore flow is expected across southern California with winds of
15 to 25 mph and stronger gusts in terrain favored areas. However,
fire weather concerns will remain low due to recent rainfall and
moist fuels.
..Bentley.. 01/09/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CST Sat Jan 09 2021
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis... Cool and/or moist conditions are expected across most
of the CONUS which will preclude fire weather concerns. Some weak
offshore flow is expected to continue across southern California,
but fuels are not that dry after recent rainfall in the region and
therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal.
..Bentley.. 01/09/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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