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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.01.21 17:13z 103 Lines 5514 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1565_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<IZ5FSA<KC9VYU<N9LCF<KF5JRV<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210110/1700Z 1565@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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MD 0016 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NM...TX PERMIAN
BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY
Mesoscale Discussion 0016 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0414 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
Areas affected...Far Southeast NM...TX Permian Basin and Big Country
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 101014Z - 101415Z
SUMMARY...Occasionally heavy snowfall with rates around 1" per hour
are possible from the Permian Basin into the TX Big Country over
the next several hours.
DISCUSSION...A well-defined shortwave trough continues to dig
southeastward across the southern High Plains. Strong low to
mid-level flow ahead of this shortwave is contributing to an
expansive band of precipitation from far southeast NM southeastward
into the TX Hill Country. Surface observations are reporting snow
from HOB (into far southeast NM) to as far east as SNK (in the TX Big
Country). A low-level dry layer is likely preventing precipitation
from reaching the surface east/southeast of SNK.
The shortwave trough is expected to continue southeastward
over the next few hours, with the strong low to mid-level
southerly/southeasterly flow ahead of it persisting. This will result
in continued warm-air advection with resulting maintenance/expansion
of the precipitation band. Additionally, ascent attendant to the
approaching shortwave is expected to augment the warm-air advection,
resulting in a deep layer of ascent through the cold and moist
mid-levels/dendritic growth layer. Consequently, instances of heavy
snow (i.e., snowfall rates around of 1" per hour) are possible,
particularly from between MAF and LBB eastward towards ABI around
12-13Z.
..Mosier.. 01/10/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32380289 32730363 33260342 33390128 32299905 31319942
31960125 32230204 32380289
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630
AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Sporadic non-severe thunderstorms are possible over
south Texas and southern Louisiana.
...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the large-scale pattern will
be characterized by a broad cyclone over the Gulf of Alaska, mean
ridging from CA across the northern Rockies and northwestern Canada,
and a complex, split-flow regime of mean troughing over the central
CONUS. The principal southern-stream perturbation, around which the
flow splits, is evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern NM
and far west TX, with a nearly closed cyclone around a 500-mb low
located over southeastern NM. The low should close fully through
the remainder of this morning and move eastward across west TX,
reaching the area between CDS-ABI by 00Z. By 12Z, the low should
be near TXK, along a deamplifying shortwave trough, then becoming
an open wave again and weakening across the Mid-South on day 2.
At the surface, a distinct low should develop off Padre Island by
around 18Z, from a trough analyzed at 11Z near a BRO-CRP-SAT axis.
The low should move east-northeastward from there across the
northwestern Gulf, and remaining south of the mainland through
the rest of the period. By 12Z, the low should be located south of
southeastern LA, with warm front arching to just south of the moth of
the Mississippi River, then southeastward over the east-central Gulf.
A cold front will trail south-southwestward from the low across
the northwestern Gulf.
...South TX... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
possible today across much of south TX, within a broad plume of
elevated, low-level warm advection and moisture transport wrapping
toward the mid/upper low. This activity will be supported by
elevated MUCAPE in the 200-500 J/kg range, rooted around 750-850
mb in southern areas and 650-750 mb from the Edwards Plateau across
south-central TX.
A main convective swath -- perhaps a southward extension of the
zone of elevated frontogenetic lift now passing the AQO/SAT/COT
corridor -- should evolve through the day just inland from the lower
TX Coast and shift eastward. This activity should remain elevated
and non- severe over land, behind the developing surface cyclone.
The convection should increase in coverage and intensify after
reaching the Gulf surface low and encountering a higher-theta-e, more
surface-rooted inflow layer of the warm sector. Forecast soundings
suggest that deep shear and CAPE may become favorable for a severe
threat affecting offshore interests well south of the upper TX and
LA Coasts, but should not extend inland/north of the warm front,
due to lack of boundary-layer buoyancy.
..Edwards/Mosier.. 01/10/2021
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