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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.01.21 17:01z 143 Lines 7279 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1622_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11 01
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<IZ5FSA<KC9VYU<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210111/1700Z 1622@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102
PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across
much of the nation today through tonight.
...Discussion... Short waves will continue to emerge from a strong,
generally zonal mid-latitude Pacific jet, before progressing into
and through modestly amplified branching downstream westerlies.
To the southeast of the center of an initially broad and deep
cyclone near Kodiak Island, models indicate that one of these
perturbations may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis across
the northeastern Pacific. Coinciding strengthening of southwesterly
lower/mid tropospheric wind fields into the Pacific Northwest
is also forecast, including to 50-80 kts in the 850-700 mb layer,
accompanied by a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes
of the western and central Pacific. While this may contribute to
the development of very weak CAPE, primarily to the west of the
Cascades, it appears that colder mid-level air with steeper lapse
rates more supportive of convection capable of producing lightning
will generally remain to the northwest of the region.
Downstream, generally stable conditions will be maintained across
much of the nation. An influx of moisture off a still modifying
boundary layer over the Gulf of Mexico does appear likely to
overspread much of the Southeast, as a short wave impulse emerges
from larger-scale troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies.
However, this perturbation will undergo considerable deformation as
it accelerates into increasingly confluent mid-level flow across
and east of the Mississippi Valley. And associated surface wave
development along a frontal zone across the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico and northern Florida into the western Atlantic is forecast
to remain weak. Warming temperatures aloft, to the south of the
perturbation, should maintain weak mid-level lapse rates across and
inland of the northeastern Gulf coast. And models indicate that
boundary-layer moistening will only become supportive of very weak
CAPE across the coastal waters and immediate coastal areas. While a
categorical risk for thunderstorms is being maintained across this
region, probabilities may be near the minimum 10 percent threshold.
..Kerr.. 01/11/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149
PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous
U.S. on Tuesday.
...Synopsis... A stable pattern will persist across much of
the CONUS on Tuesday as a shortwave trough quickly exits the Mid
Atlantic early in the day. High pressure will spread across the
Plains and Southeast, centered over the TX and the Four Corners, and
this will keep the better low-level moisture offshore. To the west,
strong southwest flow aloft will persist over the Pacific Northwest
as a strong jet max noses into WA by Tuesday morning. Models have
trended a bit farther south with the midlevel temperature gradient
which may enter northwestern parts of WA, but forecast soundings
indicate little to no CAPE to support thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 01/11/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249
AM CST Mon Jan 11 2021
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the contiguous
U.S. on Wednesday.
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the
southeastern states on Wednesday, with a dry and stable air mass
at the surface. The stable air mass will also exist across the
Plains, ahead of a potent northern Rockies trough with a surface
low deepening over SK and MB. Therefore, despite this deepening
upper trough Wednesday night, thunderstorms are not expected due
to lack of CAPE.
Elsewhere, an upper ridge will exist along the West Coast, with
stable conditions there as well.
..Jewell.. 01/11/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CST Mon Jan 11 2021
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION... An inactive convective pattern is likely to persist
through Monday/D8, with a large upper trough developing over the
central and eastern states during the Thursday/D4 to Saturday/D6
period. Little low-level moisture return is forecast over land
ahead of the initial cold front, which will be near the TX Coast
at 00Z Friday.
Additional surges of high pressure are forecast to occur over the
central and eastern states from Sunday/D7 to Monday/D8, as models
indicate another upper trough amplification over the Plains and
Great Lakes region. As such, severe weather is quite unlikely,
with little thunderstorm potential in general.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CST Mon Jan 11 2021
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Cool and moist conditions will be present across
most of the CONUS. The only exception will be southern California
where offshore flow is ongoing this morning. Winds of 15 to 20
mph are being observed across a large-area with some higher winds
in terrain favored areas. However, relative humidity is only 15
to 25 percent at these sites with only one or two sites below
15 percent. These marginal elevated conditions combined with a
dearth of dry fuels due to recent rainfall precludes the need for
an elevated delineation this outlook.
Offshore winds will increase again tonight as the Great Basin high
strengthens. However, relative humidity is expected to remain mostly
above 20 percent once again.
..Bentley.. 01/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Mon Jan 11 2021
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Cool and/or moist conditions will prevail across
most of the country on Tuesday except for southern California. Some
offshore flow is expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning, but relative
humidity is expected to be a bit high and presence of dry fuels
too sparse to warrant an elevated delineation.
..Bentley.. 01/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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