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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.01.21 17:33z 181 Lines 9472 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1683_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<KE0GB<W4GON<LU4DRH<LU9DCE
Sent: 210112/1700Z 1683@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125
PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across
the U.S. today through tonight.
...Synopsis... It appears that a perturbation within the
persistent strong mid-latitude Pacific jet will undergo considerable
amplification (near 160 W latitude) during this period. As it does,
downstream ridging is forecast to build within the mid-latitude
westerlies, and across the subtropical eastern Pacific. On the
northeastern periphery of this ridging, models indicate that a
vigorous short wave perturbation will accelerate east-northeastward
toward the Pacific Northwest coast today, before turning eastward,
inland near the international border area tonight. This may be
accompanied by a developing surface frontal wave into coastal areas
northwest of Puget Sound by this evening, and more prominent surface
cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies by 12Z Wednesday.
A plume of moisture (emanating from the lower latitude western
Pacific) on its southern periphery will probably be shunted southward
ahead of the cold front, becoming focused across northern California
by the end of the period.
Downstream, relatively dry and stable conditions are expected
to generally prevail across much of the remainder of the U.S.,
with confluent mid-level flow contributing to the maintenance
of cold surface ridging across much of the Gulf Coast states and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Models suggest that the frontal zone
marking the leading edge of this air mass will stall across southern
portions of the Florida Peninsula and the southern Gulf of Mexico,
along and south of which seasonably high moisture content likely
will remain confined.
...South Florida/Keys... Although there may be some further
boundary-layer moistening along/ahead of the initially southward
advancing cold front, showers associated with moistening and
forcing for ascent aloft probably will tend to stabilize lapse
rates and minimized boundary-layer destabilization. While a brief,
weak thunderstorm or two might not be entirely out of the question,
it is not yet clear that probabilities meet the minimum 10 percent
threshold.
...Parts of south central Texas into lower Mississippi Valley...
Within remnant mid-level troughing gradually emerging from the
northern Mexican Plateau and adjacent southwest Texas, a compact
embedded mid-level low is forecast to track near/south of the Hill
Country toward the lower Mississippi Valley today through tonight.
Although this is well to the cool side of the surface frontal
zone, forecast soundings indicate that, near the base of steeper
mid-level lapse rates beneath the mid-level cold core, elevated
moisture return may contribute to weak CAPE supportive of scattered
high-based convection. Much of this is currently forecast to remain
above the freezing level, and probabilities for weak thunderstorms
are being maintained at less than 10 percent. However, sporadic
lightning with convection may not be entirely out of the question
along the track of the low.
...Pacific Northwest... Strong mid-level cooling may not spread
inland across northwestern Washington until after 13/06Z this
evening, and the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become
conducive to convection capable of producing lightning remains
unclear, based on latest forecast soundings. While sporadic
lightning appears possible, mainly near the international border
to the west of the Cascades, probabilities still appear less than
10 percent.
..Kerr.. 01/12/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140
PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the U.S. mainland
on Wednesday.
...Discussion...
The southern-stream shortwave trough over northern Mexico as of late
Monday evening will deamplify as it moves from LA early Wednesday to
off the southeast Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Thursday. No accompanying
cyclone development is forecast to occur in association with this
feature, and offshore flow over the Gulf of Mexico will maintain a
dry and stable boundary layer inland. While some shallow mid-level
convection supported by steepening mid-level lapse rates and ascent
might occur over a portion of the Gulf Coast States, prospects for
thunderstorms appear limited.
Elsewhere, showers will likely occur in vicinity of and north of a
quasi-stationary front that will be situated across deep south FL.
However, the unstable layer is not expected to become sufficient
to support a substantial risk for thunderstorms.
..Dial.. 01/12/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135
AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected over the U.S. mainland
on Thursday.
...Discussion...
An upper trough will amplify and evolve into a closed synoptic low
as it moves from the Plains Thursday to the Midwest and upper Great
Lakes by early Friday. A cold front accompanying this feature will
stretch from the upper MS Valley into the southern Plains Thursday
morning, and should extend from the upper Great Lakes through the
central Gulf Coast States by 12Z Friday. There will be insufficient
time for any substantive Gulf moisture return preceding this front,
resulting in stable conditions and limited thunderstorm prospects.
..Dial.. 01/12/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION... Model consensus is that a large upper trough
will be centered over the Midwest by early day 4 (Friday), and this
feature will move slowly east, finally exiting the eastern seaboard
late day 5 (Saturday). Offshore flow and stable conditions inland
will prevail during this time. A lower-amplitude, more progressive
shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central and eastern
U.S. day 6-7 on the heels of the previous trough. However, the speed
of this feature and lack of cyclogenesis suggest there will not be
sufficient moisture return for a severe threat.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Cool conditions will be present across most of
the Inter-Mountain west and the eastern CONUS which will limit
overall fire weather concerns. Some weak offshore flow is expected
to continue across southern California through the day today amid
relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. However, as the area of high
pressure in the Great Basin weakens through the day, the offshore
gradient is expected to relax with winds subsequently decreasing. The
short duration of the stronger winds during the morning hours and
a likely lack of widespread dry fuels after recent wetting rainfall
precludes the need for an elevated delineation in this area.
..Bentley.. 01/12/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Downslope flow will lead to breezy conditions in
the lee of the northern and central Rockies from Montana to Kansas
on Wednesday. However, despite windy conditions, cool conditions,
high relative humidities and unfavorable fuels will preclude fire
weather concerns beyond a localized increase in initial attack.
Farther west, a reinforcing area of surface high pressure will move
into the Columbia Basin/northern Rockies which will once again
tighten the pressure gradient across southern California. The
orientation of the gradient will likely lead to a more northerly
component to the flow. This orientation will likely lead to some
upper-level support, and thus stronger winds than may otherwise be
expected from the surface pressure gradient, especially Wednesday
night. Slightly high relative humidity and questions about fuels
preclude the issuance of an elevated area at this time, but further
evidence of widespread critically dry fuels in the area may require
an elevated delineation in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 01/12/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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