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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.01.21 19:11z 111 Lines 5920 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1729_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IK1NHL<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<KC9VYU<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210113/1900Z 1729@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124
AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the
U.S. mainland Friday.
...Discussion...
A closed synoptic upper low will be centered across the Midwest
early Friday. This feature will move slowly east through the OH and
TN Valleys during the day. The accompanying occluded surface low
will weaken across the Great Lakes, while secondary cyclogenesis is
forecast near the Mid Atlantic coast late in the period. A front
will initially extend from the occluded low over the Great Lakes,
southeast through the southern Appalachians into the Gulf Coast
States. The front will continue east and off the Atlantic seaboard
by late Friday night. Bands of precipitation will likely occur in
vicinity of this boundary. However, very limited moisture return and
meager to no instability should preclude thunderstorm development.
..Dial.. 01/13/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION... Model consensus is that a synoptic upper trough
will move through the eastern U.S. day 4 (Saturday) followed closely
by an upstream trough on day 5. This pattern will be accompanied by
offshore winds over the Gulf, maintaining stable conditions inland. A
pattern transition is forecast to occur by day 6 (Monday) as an
upper trough amplifies across the Great Basin region. Modifying Gulf
moisture should return through south TX, but instability will remain
insufficient for a severe threat. Moisture return should be more
substantial across south and southeast TX and possibly into southern
LA by day 7 with potential for greater destabilization. However,
by this time frame. predictability diminishes due to uncertainty
regarding the trajectory of the Great Basin upper trough.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis... An area of low pressure will move through Alberta
through the day today with a cold front moving across Montana. Very
windy conditions are expected in the wake of this cold frontal
passage across Montana. These windy conditions may lead to an
increase an initial attack, but mostly moist fuels and a cool/moist
low-level airmass should limit the overall threat for large fires.
As this area of low pressure moves southeastward toward northern
North Dakota, high pressure is expected to build into the Columbia
Basin/northern Rockies. As this high pressure starts to build
in this afternoon and evening, a north/south oriented pressure
gradient is expected to tighten across California. This may lead to
an increase in surface winds across terrain favored areas in the
Peninsular and Transverse ranges in southern California. Relative
humidity is expected to be around 20 to 30 percent at the onset
and fall through time as northerly flow strengthens. An elevated
delineation has been added to cover the threat Wednesday evening and
Wednesday night as winds increase. Fuels are not overly dry due to
recent rainfall, but several days of persistent offshore flow has
dried 10 hour fuels to the 5 to 7 percent range and any greenup
from the precipitation has been sparse according to local officials.
..Bentley.. 01/13/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis... A strong surface pressure gradient is expected
across most of the Plains between a strong surface high in the Great
Basin and a low pressure area traversing southern Canada. This
is expected to result in widespread windy conditions across most
of the Plains/High Plains. Some increase in initial attack may be
possible, but overall cool conditions and mostly moist fuels will
preclude the need for fire weather highlights.
A strong offshore pressure gradient is expected to be ongoing
Thursday morning across southern California with the LAX-DAG pressure
gradient expected to be 6-8mb. This will result in 20 to 35 mph winds
with 50+ mph wind gusts expected in terrain favored areas of southern
California. In addition, relative humidity is expected to range from
10 to 20 percent in the region. In addition to the strong surface
pressure gradient, some upper-level support and cold air advection
is anticipated which may lead to winds even higher than currently
forecast. Given all these factors an elevated area is warranted for
all of the transverse and peninsular ranges in southern California
with a critical delineation warranted for Los Angeles and Ventura
counties where the strongest winds area anticipated.
..Bentley.. 01/13/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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