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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.01.21 17:03z 166 Lines 8976 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1768_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14 01
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<N3HYM<KC9VYU<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210114/1700Z 1768@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136
PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected over the U.S. mainland
today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will develop across the Upper
Midwest today as an upper-level trough digs south-southeastward
across the Great Plains. Ahead of this system, a shortwave ridge
will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the
surface, high pressure will move across parts of the Southeast and
Gulf of Mexico. This will limit moisture return keeping a dry airmass
in place across the U.S. As a result, thunderstorm development is
not expected today and tonight.
..Broyles.. 01/14/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230
AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible over the North
Carolina Outer Banks Friday evening.
...North Carolina Coastal area...
A closed synoptic upper low will be centered over the Midwest
early Friday. This feature will move slowly east through the OH and
TN Valleys during the day. The accompanying occluded surface low
will weaken across the Great Lakes, while secondary cyclogenesis
is forecast near the Mid Atlantic coast Friday night. A front
will initially extend from the occluded low over the Great Lakes,
southeast through the southern Appalachians into the Gulf Coast
states. The front will continue east and off the Atlantic seaboard
Friday night. Bands of showers will likely occur in vicinity of
this boundary. Moisture return will generally be very limited,
but some models indicate the strengthening low-level jet may advect
low to mid 50s F dewpoints into the NC Outer Banks. A few lightning
flashes might occur as the showers move through the Outer Banks and
intercept greater moisture and a deeper convective layer, but most
thunderstorms will not develop until the this band moves offshore
and over the Gulf Stream.
..Dial.. 01/14/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144
AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
...Ohio Valley and central Appalachians...
The synoptic upper low centered over the OH Valley Saturday morning
will move generally northeast, reaching the Northeast U.S. Saturday
night. A dry continental polar airmass will reside across the OH
Valley. Weak instability resulting from surface heating, cold air
aloft and mid-level forcing for ascent attending vorticity maxima
rotating through the upper low circulation will contribute to a few
mostly snow showers. However, it appears the convective layer depth
and degree of instability will remain insufficient for thunderstorms.
..Dial.. 01/14/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION... Day 4 (Sunday) offshore flow over the Gulf will
maintain stable conditions inland. By day 5 (Monday), winds will
return to southerly over the western Gulf resulting in the advection
of a modifying Gulf boundary layer supporting dewpoints in the 50s
F across south through eastern TX. A few showers may develop in the
pre-frontal warm advection regime late Monday night from northeast
TX into OK but instability will remain too marginal for severe
storms. An upper low will settle into the southwest U.S. by day 6
(Tuesday) with downstream weak upper ridging across TX in vicinity
of a cold front that will move slowly south. While showers and a
few thunderstorms may develop along the front and possibly farther
south in the warm sector across southeast TX, no severe weather is
expected due to the very weak thermodynamic environment. By day 7
the cutoff upper low is forecast to settle into northern Mexico,
but models remain inconsistent regarding the timing and future
trajectory of this feature, resulting in low predictability.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis... A powerful mid-level jet will be present across the
Plains today. At the surface, a strong pressure gradient will set up
across the Plains between a 996mb low pressure center in the Upper
Midwest and a 1040 mb high in the Inter-Mountain West. This tight
pressure gradient and deep mixing within this area of northwest flow
will lead to very strong winds across most of the Plains. Fuels are
not overly dry, but given the strength of the winds (potentially 40+
mph sustained) and the expectation for 10 to 20 percent relative
humidity, an elevated area is warranted for the corridor of
strongest winds. The elevated area currently encapsulates areas
where temperatures are expected to be 40+ degrees and wind 30+
mph sustained.
Early this morning, the LAX/DAG pressure gradient is -4.3 mb and
is expected to increase to -8 to -9 mb by mid morning. The gradient
will slacken some during the day as the Great Basin High weakens, but
is expected to increase again tonight, possibly stronger than this
morning in the 9-10 mb range. In addition to this strong offshore
pressure gradient, winds will be aided by upper-level support from
moderate north to northeasterly winds and cold air advection. This
will likely result in a moderate Santa Ana event with very strong
winds, especially in terrain prone areas. Local relative humidity in
the 8 to 12 percent range is likely, but overall relative humidity
is only expected to fall into the 15 to 25 percent range in most
locations during this event. In addition, recent rainfall has
tempered fuel dryness somewhat, but over a week of offshore flow
has dried fuels sufficiently to support large fire spread.
..Bentley.. 01/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will become an
upper-level low through the day Friday as a strong jet wraps
cyclonically around the base of the trough. At the surface, a 995mb
low is expected to be in the Midwest with a strong 1040+ mb high in
the Intermountain West Friday morning. This will lead to a strong
pressure gradient across the Plains. Strong winds are expected due
to a combination of this strong pressure gradient and deep mixing
transporting the stronger winds from aloft to the surface. Cool
conditions are expected to overlap much of the area of strong
winds, however, warmer conditions are expected across Texas. The
corridor below the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak is expected to
see very strong winds during the afternoon hours at peak vertical
mixing. Extremely critical meteorological conditions are expected
with winds of 35 to 50 mph sustained and relative humidity below
10 percent. Fuels in this area are mostly moist which should slow
the spread and somewhat limit the large-fire potential. However,
despite marginal fuels, the extreme nature of the weather conditions
is sufficient to warrant an elevated delineation.
Strong offshore flow will be ongoing at the beginning of the period
with the LAX-DAG gradient expected to be around -8 to -9 mb. These
strong winds are expected to persist through the morning before
starting to weaken during the afternoon hours. Strong winds leading
to critical conditions will likely extend farther south along the
coast Friday beyond the US/Mexico border. Winds of 35 to 50 mph with
gusts of 70 mph+ are expected in terrain prone areas with relative
humidity ranging from 8 to 20 percent.
..Bentley.. 01/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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