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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.01.21 17:03z 212 Lines 11645 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1815_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15 01
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<N3HYM<KC9VYU<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210115/1700Z 1815@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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MD 0020 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0020 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021
Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa into
northwestern Missouri
Concerning...Blizzard
Valid 150937Z - 151230Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow and strengthening
surface gusts are expected to contribute to periods of blizzard
or near blizzard conditions, with sharply reduced visibilities,
through 6-9 AM CST.
DISCUSSION...A short wave impulse pivoting around the northwestern
and western periphery of the deepening mid-level low appears
to be contributing to increasing mid-level forcing for ascent
overspreading the Missouri Valley, including within the favorably
cold mid-level layers supportive of dendritic ice crystal growth.
Snowfall rates have recently been increasing along the Iowa/Nebraska
border vicinity, and latest model output suggests that this may
persist at least another several hours, with heavier snow gradually
developing southeastward into areas near/northwest of St. Joseph, MO.
It also appears that this will coincide with a strengthening
pressure gradient on the southwestern periphery of the surface
cyclone, which is expected to migrate southward toward the eastern
Missouri/Iowa border through mid morning. Beneath a strengthening
north-northwesterly low-level jet (to near 70 kt at 850 mb), it
appears that surface gusts may increase to 40-50 kts. Although snow
rates may mostly be on the order of 1/2 inch per hour or less,
brief heavier rates approaching 1 inch per hour appear possible,
contributing to periods of sharply reduced visibilities when coupled
with considerable blowing of snow.
..Kerr.. 01/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 42359599 41289510 40919463 39959466 40469578 42239681
42359599
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136
PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible over the North
Carolina Outer Banks Friday evening.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move slowly eastward across
the mid Mississippi Valley today as an associated upper-level trough
moves across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a cold front will
advance eastward across the southeastern U.S. as a surface trough
develops in the Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm development will
be possible this evening along the surface trough in parts of far
eastern North Carolina. This activity is not expected to be severe
due to a lack of instability. Elsewhere across the continental United
States, thunderstorm development is not expected today or tonight.
..Broyles/Moore.. 01/15/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146
PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
...Ohio Valley and central Appalachians...
The synoptic upper low centered over the OH Valley Saturday morning
will move generally northeast, reaching the Northeast U.S. Saturday
night. A dry continental polar airmass will reside across the OH
Valley. Weak instability resulting from surface heating, cold air
aloft and mid-level forcing for ascent attending vorticity maxima
rotating through the upper low circulation will contribute to a few
mostly snow showers. However, it appears the convective layer depth
and degree of instability will remain insufficient for thunderstorms.
..Dial.. 01/15/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126
AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the
U.S. mainland Sunday.
An upper trough will amplify and move through the eastern U.S. on
Sunday with offshore flow over the Gulf Coast as well as along the
Atlantic Seaboard. This pattern should maintain stable conditions
inland, precluding a threat for thunderstorms.
..Dial.. 01/15/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION... Day 4 (Monday), southerly winds will return to
the western Gulf and south TX resulting in the northward advection
of a modifying Gulf boundary layer through south and east TX. A
few showers may develop along a southward-advancing cold front and
in the pre-frontal warm advection regime late Monday night from OK
into northeast TX, but very little instability will exist to support
thunderstorms. Upper low is forecast to be situated over southern
CA by day 5 (Tuesday) with downstream weak upper ridging across
TX in vicinity of a cold front that will move slowly south. While
showers and thunderstorms may develop along the front and possibly
farther south in the warm sector across southeast TX, no severe
weather is expected due to the anticipated very weak thermodynamic
environment. By day 6 (Wednesday) model consensus is that the cutoff
upper low will settle into the Baja area with a downstream upper
ridge across the Southern Plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms
may persist in vicinity of the stalled and weakening front from
central TX into the lower MS Valley, but the expected parameter
space does not appear conducive for severe storms.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis... A strong upper-level low will continue to deepen
across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS today. An attendant
surface low in place across the Midwest will begin to gradually
weaken through the day. However, this low juxtaposed next to a
strong surface high over the inter-mountain West will maintain strong
pressure gradient winds over much of the Plains. Additionally, this
surface high will continue to promote offshore flow over southern
California and maintain fire weather concerns.
...Southern California... Early morning surface observations
show elevated to critical fire weather conditions already ongoing
across portions of Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange, and southwest San
Bernardino counties. RH values in the low teens are noted with
wind gusts up to 30-45 mph in some locations. These conditions
are being driven by a building 1040 mb surface high to the north
across the northern Great Basin. Guidance continues to suggest a
-5 to -8 mb LAX-DAG pressure gradient will foster strong winds with
gusts between 40-60 mph (possibly up to 70 mph for some locations)
across coastal southern CA through at least mid-day before gradually
abating late this afternoon. Poor RH recoveries (generally in the
upper single-digits to teens) are expected through this afternoon
and will help support the fire weather threat.
...Central to Southern Plains... Pressure gradient winds are
expected to increase through the day with sustained winds near
25-35 mph and gusts up to 45-60 mph. Mostly clear skies along with
modest dry air advection from the north will help RH values fall into
the 15-30% range by this afternoon. The elevated risk area has been
expanded to include portions of eastern CO and western KS where winds
are forecast to be the strongest. Although temperatures are forecast
to remain cool for eastern CO/western KS, recent reports from the
ND/SD border of a fast-moving grass fire under similar weather
conditions suggest that rapidly growing fires can develop given
sufficiently dry fine fuels. While critical wind/RH thresholds
may be met today, the fire weather threat will be conditional
due to somewhat higher fuel moisture/lower ERC values compared to
locations further north. Areas that see rapid drying of fine fuels
through the day may see a heightened fire weather threat, but given
the uncertainty of fuel conditions no critical areas are introduced.
..Moore.. 01/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West Coast will maintain
dry weather for southern California as well as re-intensify an inland
surface high over the inter-mountain West. A strengthening offshore
pressure gradient across southern California will support another day
of fire weather concerns. Elsewhere, a weakening pressure-gradient
across the Plains and into the eastern CONUS will limit the coverage
of breezy conditions, though a few locations may see some fire
weather concerns where terrain-augmented winds and sufficiently
reduced RH can overlap.
...Southern California... Surface high pressure is expected
to re-intensify over the northern Great Basin from late Friday
night into Saturday due to upper-level height rises over the West
Coast. This will support a -5 to -7 mb LAX-DAG pressure gradient
beginning early Saturday morning through the afternoon. Although
breezy conditions appear likely (sustained winds at 20-30 mph with
gusts to 40 mph), mid to upper-level support does not appear to be
as favorable as Friday and will limit the wind potential. However,
poor RH recoveries (10-20%) through Saturday afternoon will support
elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Confidence in
sustained critical conditions is mainly limited to portions of
Los Angeles and Ventura counties where low to mid-level winds are
forecast to be the strongest, though transient critical conditions
may extend as far south as the U.S./Mexico border. There are some
indications that the offshore pressure gradient may persist into
Sunday, which could support additional fire weather concerns for
very early Sunday morning at the end of the Day 2 period. However,
confidence in this potential is somewhat low.
...Southern High Plains... Westerly downslope winds are forecast
to increase through Saturday afternoon within the higher terrain
of eastern New Mexico and southwest Texas. RH values in the 15-20%
range will support some areas of elevated, to perhaps critical,
wind/RH conditions. However, marginal fuels across this region
and the spatially limited nature of the threat preclude the need
for highlights.
..Moore.. 01/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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