| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 17.01.21 01:01z 221 Lines 12069 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1920_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<K5DAT<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210116/1700Z 1920@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
MD 0021 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
Mesoscale Discussion 0021 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021
Areas affected...Parts of northern New York state...Vermont...New
Hampshire and adjacent western Massachusetts
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 160933Z - 161330Z
SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow, at rates of 1 to 2+ inches per hour,
are expected to develop through 7-10 AM EST, particularly across
the Adirondacks, Champlain Valley, and Green and White Mountains.
DISCUSSION...A developing surface cyclone off the northern Mid
Atlantic coast is forecast to continue deepening while migrating
inland across Long Island into southern New England through 14-15Z.
As it does, models indicate a coincident intensification of
southeasterly flow within the warm conveyor (50-70 kt in the 850-70
mb layer) preceding it, accompanied by strengthening warm advection,
associated large-scale ascent and increasing precipitation rates.
Given the generally sub-freezing thermodynamic profiles across the
region, this is expected to initiate as snow, before precipitation
ends and/or near-surface warming allows for a changeover to rain
east/southeast of the Berkshires and Green/White Mountains by mid
to late morning.
Aided by an influx of precipitable water on the order of .5-.75
inches, periods of heavy snow are expected to develop, particularly
where strengthening orographic forcing contributes to lift across
the higher terrain, including the Adirondacks. Forecast soundings
suggest that increasingly divergent upper flow will contribute
to periods of intensifying lift within the favorably cold layers
conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. Coupled with weak
destabilization aloft supportive of occasional convective bursts,
heavy snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour, and at times in
excess of 2 inches per hour, are possible.
..Kerr.. 01/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 42657336 43237456 44057488 44757402 44497252 44517194
44757122 44187128 43367206 42857260 42657336
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127
PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across the central
Appalachians this afternoon.
...Central Appalachians...
Late this evening, center of 500mb low has migrated to near the
southern IL/IN border. This feature is forecast to shift into eastern
OH by 18z along with -30 to -34F 500mb temperatures. By mid day,
surface temperatures should warm into the mid 30s which will result
in steep surface-3km lapse rates and weak surface-based buoyancy. A
few thunderstorms developed ahead of the upper low over the OH Valley
Friday afternoon and showers will once again develop by mid day as
the boundary layer warms. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest
updrafts could penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge,
and while the flash rates should remain low, 10 percent thunder
probabilities may be attained. Greatest risk will be between 17-21z.
..Darrow/Moore.. 01/16/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154
PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the
U.S. mainland Sunday and Sunday night.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward from the
Great Plains east-southeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be in place
from the Great Plains into the Gulf of Mexico. This will prevent
moisture return limiting thunderstorm development across the
continental United States Sunday and Sunday night.
..Broyles.. 01/16/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208
AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental
United States on Monday or Monday night.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move
east-southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley as zonal
flow remains in place over the southern tier of the nation. At the
surface, high pressure will be located across the Southeast and Gulf
of Mexico. This will prevent moisture return limiting the potential
for thunderstorm development across the continental United States
Monday and Monday night.
..Broyles.. 01/16/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... Zonal
mid-level flow is forecast to be in place form the southern Plains
eastward to the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the
surface, high pressure is forecast to be dominate across much of
the continental United States on Tuesday. The associated surface
high is forecast to move across the Southeast on Wednesday. This
will keep a dry airmass in place over much of the nation limiting
thunderstorm development through mid week.
...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... The medium-range models are
forecasting an upper-level trough to move from the Desert Southwest
to the southern Plains from Thursday into Friday. Moisture return
is expected to take place ahead of the system in parts of the
southern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible from
Thursday night into Friday along northern parts of the moist
airmass, most likely from central Texas eastward into the lower
Mississippi Valley. However, instability is expected to remain
very weak which should limit any severe potential. On Saturday,
model forecasts develop a low-amplitude upper-level ridge across
the central U.S. At this time, instability is expected to be minimal
across most of the nation helping to limit thunderstorm development.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis... An upper-level low in place across the Midwest will
gradually weaken and lift to the northeast into New England through
today. As this occurs, cool dry air will continue to overspread
the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Pressure gradient winds
will be weaker compared to previous days, which will limit the
fire weather potential despite the dry air. To the west, a slight
re-intensification of surface high pressure across the inter-mountain
West will maintain offshore winds and support another day of fire
weather concerns.
...Southern California... Early morning surface observations
from coastal southern CA show RH values struggling to recover out
of the teens with wind gusts into the 20-40 mph range. Elevated
to localized critical conditions are already ongoing and are
expected to increase in coverage through the day. RH values should
remain in the teens, and fuels remain receptive due to no recent
precipitation. Upper-level height rises along the West Coast will
help augment the surface high to the north of the region, resulting
in a strengthening offshore pressure gradient and increasing winds
(a -5 to -7 mb LAX-DAG gradient appears likely by mid-day). Weak
upper-level support will limit the overall wind potential, but
gusts up to 40-45 mph are likely. While critical conditions appear
most likely for portions of Ventura, Los Angeles, and southwest
San Bernardino counties, transient/localized critical conditions
may extend southward to the U.S./Mexico border.
Winds should begin abate somewhat by the late afternoon hours,
but guidance continues to suggest that breezy conditions could
persist into early Sunday morning for some locations. However,
falling temperatures and gradually increasing RH may limit the fire
weather threat for early Sunday.
...Central New Mexico into southwest Texas... The re-intensification
of the western surface High will support 15-25 mph westerly downslope
winds along the higher terrain of central NM into southwest
TX. Overnight RH values in the teens to 30% range are expected
to remain in the teens or fall to the low 20s by this afternoon,
which should support at least elevated wind/RH conditions. However,
fuels across this region remain somewhat marginal and should limit
the overall fire weather concern.
...Northern Florida and southern Georgia... Dry air advecting into
the region today will help RH values fall to near 30% for many
locations along the FL/GA border. Breezy winds at around 15 mph
are also anticipated and could support elevated wind/RH criteria
for some areas. Despite dry conditions in the previous few days,
recent radar estimates show 0.1-0.25 inches of rain have fallen
over the past 24 hours, which should limit fuel receptiveness.
..Moore.. 01/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to build eastward
from the West Coast into the inter-mountain West on Sunday. As this
occurs, surface high pressure will migrate southeastward from the
Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin before weakening
late in the day. This will maintain offshore pressure-gradient flow
across southern California at least for the first half of the day.
Elsewhere, cool conditions with relatively weak pressure gradient
winds will limit widespread fire weather concerns.
...Southern California... Early morning guidance suggests that
breezy conditions (sustained winds near 15-25 mph) may be ongoing
at the start of the period Sunday morning due to the maintenance
of a -5 to -7 mb LAX-DAG pressure gradient as the aforementioned
surface high builds southward. Upper-level support for strong winds
will likely wane through the day as the upper-level ridge shifts
east/southeastward, but wind gusts up to 45 mph for wind-prone
locations appear possible during the morning hours. While RH
recoveries will be minimal overall, ensemble guidance does suggest
that slightly cooler temperatures may keep RH values in the upper
teens to 20s during the morning hours coincident with the strongest
winds. RH values will likely fall further in the afternoon, but it
is uncertain how long the strong winds will persist and temporally
overlap with more favorable RH. Overall, elevated fire weather
conditions appear most likely due to the limited temporal overlap of
critical wind/RH thresholds. However, localized/transient critical
conditions will be possible during the morning hours and could be
more widespread if strong winds can persist into the afternoon hours.
..Moore.. 01/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Alex Buell: Or how about a Penguin logo painted in really really
trippy colours, and emblazoned with the word LSD. :o)
Geert Uytterhoeven: We already had that one, but unfortunately
Russell King fixed that nasty palette bug in drivers/video/fbcon.c
:-)
-- linux-kernel
Diaspora -> https://cutt.ly/diaspora-lu9dce
Mastodon -> https://cutt.ly/mastodon-lu9dce
Tube -----> https://cutt.ly/videos-lu9dce
Jabber ---> lu9dce@conversations.im
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
