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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.01.21 17:04z 180 Lines 9735 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2072_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17 01
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<DB0EEO<DB0GOS<ON0AR<GB7CIP<N7HPX<
LU9DCE
Sent: 210117/1701Z 2072@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144
PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous
United States today.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will be
maintained across much of the central/eastern CONUS today while
progressing slowly eastward. At the surface, offshore trajectories
over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will continue to
inhibit substantial low-level moisture and meaningful instability
over land. Accordingly, the potential for thunderstorms appears
minimal across the CONUS today.
..Gleason/Moore.. 01/17/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236
AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental
United States on Monday or Monday night.
...DISCUSSION... Mid-level flow will become zonal across the
southern tier of the U.S. on Monday as an upper-level low moves
south-southeastward off the coast of southern California. At
the surface, high pressure will be dominant across the Southeast,
limiting moisture return into the southern U.S. This will keep a dry
airmass in place across much of the nation, limiting thunderstorm
potential Monday and Monday night.
..Broyles.. 01/17/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209
AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Non-severe thunderstorm development will be possible
across parts of the southern Plains from Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday night.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will remain south of the
southern California Coast on Tuesday as an upper-level ridge
moves slowly across the central Rockies and southern Plains. At
the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across
south-central Texas. Thunderstorm development occur in the Texas Hill
Country Tuesday afternoon and evening along the northwestern edge
of the moist airmass. However, instability is forecast to be very
weak, suggesting the convection will remain sub-severe. Elsewhere
across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is
not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 01/17/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
The medium range models maintain west-northwesterly mid-level
flow across much of the U.S. on Wednesday as an upper-level low
remains south of the southern California coast. The low is forecast
to weaken and move northeastward across the Desert Southwest on
Thursday. Ahead of this system, an upper-level ridge is forecast to
be in place across the southern Plains with a moist airmass located
across the western Gulf Coast region. Thunderstorm development
will be possible along the northwestern edge of the moist airmass
on Wednesday and Thursday, mainly from the Texas Hill Country and
Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward into the Arklatex and lower
Mississippi Valley. Instability is expected to be very weak limiting
any severe potential.
...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is
forecast dampen and move quickly east-northeastward across the
southern U.S. on Friday. Thunderstorm development will be possible
ahead of the trough from parts of the southern Plains eastward
into the central Gulf Coast region. Instability is expected to be
weak on Friday minimizing any severe potential. Low-level moisture
is forecast to gradually increase in parts of Texas from Saturday
into Sunday, where the models suggest scattered thunderstorms will
be possible. The greatest potential for an isolated severe threat
Saturday and Sunday would be from central Texas northeastward into
the Arklatex. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended
range in the forecast period.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging along the West Coast of the
U.S. will continue to shift east/southeastward over the next 24
hours. As this occurs, surface high pressure over the northern Great
Basin will continue to weaken and allow offshore flow across southern
California to abate through the day. Elsewhere, a weak cold front
will gradually move across the southern CONUS and bring drier air
and breezy conditions to portions of Kansas and Oklahoma. However,
relative humidity values should remain high enough to minimize fire
weather concerns.
...Southern California... Recent surface observations from the
mountainous regions of coastal southern California show breezy
conditions with sustained winds between 10-20 mph and gusts into
the 20-40 mph range. These winds are largely the result of a -5
mb LAX-DAG pressure gradient, which will remain in place through
at least early afternoon prior to the weakening of the surface
high across the northern Great Basin. Although recent VADs and
regional 00 UTC soundings show 35-45 mph winds above the surface,
upper-level support for strong wind gusts will decrease through
the day as upper-level ridging shifts eastward.
Elevated wind/RH thresholds are already being met for a few
locations, and will likely become more widespread through the
morning and into the early afternoon as RH values fall into the low
teens. The limited upper-level support for widespread strong wind
gusts and decreasing winds during peak diurnal heating will reduce
the potential for widespread and sustained critical conditions.
However, transient/localized critical conditions are possible within
the risk area, especially for the Santa Susana and Santa Monica
mountains where guidance has been showing the strongest signal for
periods of critical conditions.
..Moore.. 01/17/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis... Deepening low pressure off the California coast will
help reinvigorate an offshore pressure gradient through the day
Monday and well into Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong winds are likely,
but cooler temperatures and improving relative humidities may
hinder a widespread fire weather threat. Surface pressure falls
along the lee of the Southern Rockies and along a southward moving
cold front will induce westerly downslope winds across portions of
the southwest and southern High Plains. This will introduce fire
weather concerns after a few days of dry conditions and curing fuels.
...Southern California... An upper-level low is forecast to
deepen as it propagates southward along the West Coast through
the day Monday. Falling surface pressure off the southern CA
coast will induce a -6 to -8 mb LAX-DAG pressure gradient by
late Monday and into early Tuesday. Winds will gradually increase
through the day with 20-30 mph winds likely by late afternoon and
overnight. Strengthening low to mid-level flow will support 50-60
mph wind gusts (possibly up to 80 mph for wind-prone mountain
locations). Confidence in the wind forecast remains fairly high,
but colder air advecting into the region will begin a cooling trend
that will improve RH values during the forecast period. Afternoon
RH values in the 20s appear likely across the region, but may fall
into the low teens for the hills of Ventura and Los Angeles counties
where orographic subsidence and drying will likely be maximized. This
could lead to two to three hours of critical fire weather conditions,
though the severity of the fire weather threat will be conditional on
the degree of downslope warming and drying that can occur. Elsewhere,
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with brief periods
of critical conditions possible Monday afternoon.
...Southwest and southern High Plains... Surface pressure falls
along the lee of the southern Rockies and along a southward moving
cold front will likely induce westerly downslope winds across the
southwest and southern High Plains. Sustained winds between 15-20
mph are possible for portions of far southeast AZ/southwest NM and
along the higher terrain of southeast NM and the Trans Pecos region
of TX. Dry conditions over the past few days have allowed fine fuels
to cure. Afternoon RH values in the low teens are expected and should
support at least a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions.
..Moore.. 01/17/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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