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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.02.19 07:06z 106 Lines 5592 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19373_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 28 02
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<GB7COW<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 190228/0701Z 19373@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131
PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
possible near Gulf Coast.
...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow in mid/upper levels will prevail
over most of the CONUS through this period. A strong northern-branch
cyclone -- now evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern
Nunavut west of northern Hudson Bay -- is forecast to pivot
south-southwestward over northern/central SK through the period.
Meanwhile, another mid/upper cyclone -- located offshore from the
Pacific Northwest -- is forecast to split, with the western part
remaining a closed low but weakening as it moves slowly southward,
still offshore. The eastern portion should eject eastward as
an open-wave trough to central/eastern MT. Meanwhile, a weak,
positively tilted, southern- stream perturbation -- now located over
northwestern MX -- should move eastward to the central/western Gulf
Coast by 00Z. By 01/12Z, the trough's 500-mb vorticity banner should
extend from northern FL west-southwestward across the northern Gulf.
At the surface, a cold front was analyzed from the central
Appalachians southwestward across northern MS to south-central TX.
A weak frontal-wave low -- now apparent along the boundary's MS
segment -- should migrate east-northeastward to the southern
Appalachians by 00Z. The low then should stall and weaken
essentially in place over the western Carolinas region through
the remainder of this period, as the cold front reaches northern
GA, southern portions of MS/LA. The western segment of the front
should weaken somewhat and reverse/redevelop northward as a warm
front late this period into day 2.
...South TX to Southeast CONUS... Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected across the region through the period,
especially morning through evening.
Antecedent convection -- primarily developing over LA/MS before
the start of the period -- may grow upscale within a broad swath
of elevated low-level warm advection/isentropic-lift regime while
moving across portions of MS/AL/GA through the first 6-8 hours of
this period. The extent and magnitude of resultant boundary-layer
stabilization, and trailing cloud cover, will strongly influence
the potential for subsequent destabilization during the afternoon
along/ahead of the cold front. So will near-surface convergence,
which may be lacking most or all of the day given the chaotic/weak
winds behind the early activity, and lack of substantial mid/upper-
level forcing for robust boundary-layer mass response.
A conditional severe environment may develop across parts of AL this
afternoon if sufficient destabilization and lift each can occur.
Forecast soundings suggest that, under optimal clearing/heating
scenarios that offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates, 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE may develop, beneath about 90-kt anvil-level winds and
effective-shear vectors of 35-45 kt magnitude. However, too many
uncertainties linger regarding the presence of sustained storms
in this environment to re-introduce unconditional probabilities
driving a categorical severe risk.
..Edwards/Squitieri.. 02/28/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136
PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe threat is expected to be low Friday.
...Discussion...
Multifaceted short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the
southeastern US Friday with negligible height changes expected.
Latest model guidance is a bit more stable than earlier data
suggested regarding buoyancy ahead of this feature. Even so, weak
convection is expected to develop along a corridor from southern
MS to southern SC along a zone of low-level confluence where
boundary-layer heating will be maximized. A few thunderstorms will
also develop late in the period across the northern Gulf States in
association with a secondary mid-level speed max. In both cases,
forecast soundings suggest buoyancy will be too marginal to warrant
severe probs.
Farther west across CA, strong mid-level trough will approach
southern CA late in the period. Large-scale forcing for ascent
will spread onshore during the latter half of the period along
with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Weak instability should develop
across this region that could support a few elevated thunderstorms
after 02/06z.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Darrow.. 02/28/2019
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