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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.01.21 19:19z 135 Lines 7141 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2804_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 210128/1910Z 2804@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM NODE-BBS Flat Earth Society
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015
AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central and southwestern California.
...CA... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. An upper
trough is currently off the CA coast, and will spread inland through
the afternoon and night. Cold temperatures aloft, steepening lapse
rates, and large scale forcing will result in widespread showers
across much of CA, with a few convective elements occasionally
reaching sufficient depth to produce lightning. No severe storms
are forecast.
..Hart.. 01/28/2021
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120
AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorm appears negligible
across the U.S., Friday through Friday nnight.
...Synopsis... To the southeast of blocking mid/upper ridging
centered across northern Quebec, large-scale troughing is currently
in the process of evolving near the Atlantic Seaboard into the
western Atlantic. It appears that this will be maintained through
this period, as renewed amplification occurs within the westerlies
across the mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific.
Models indicate that the latter regime will include deepening
large-scale mid-level troughing across the northeastern Pacific,
the leading edge of which may at least approach British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coastal areas by 12Z Saturday. In advance
of this feature, low amplitude ridging may begin to build inland
across California by late Friday evening, as the significant short
wave trough currently approaching the California coast is forced
east-northeastward.
A vigorous smaller-scale perturbation may still be digging within the
lead short wave trough, to the west of the southern California coast
at 12Z Friday. This feature, and the associated mid-level cold core
(with 500 mb temps around -30C), might not turn completely inland of
the southern California coast until late Friday afternoon or early
evening. However, a more rapid east-northeastward acceleration
is forecast Friday night, with the larger-scale short wave trough
taking on a negative tilt across and east of the southern Rockies
by Saturday morning.
In response to the approaching mid-level perturbation, models
indicate considerable deepening of surface troughing to the lee
of the Rockies, with cyclogenesis commencing across southeast
Colorado by late Friday night. While a southerly return flow off
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico may be underway by Friday morning
across the lower Rio Grande Valley and adjacent southern Great
Plains, substantive boundary-layer moistening (including 60-65F+
surface dew points) may not reach lower Texas coastal areas until
around 12Z Saturday. Forecast soundings indicate that the depth
of this moist layer will remain fairly shallow, beneath very warm
and strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air.
...Southwest... Models indicate that the surface cold front
associated with the inland advancing mid-level short wave
trough may be in the process of advancing into/across the lower
Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday, before continuing eastward across
the central/southern Arizona deserts during the day. It appears
that the front will be preceded by moderately strong (30-40+ kt)
south/southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer, but moistening and
mid-level cooling sufficient to contribute to thermodynamic profiles
conducive to thunderstorm development are forecast to be confined
to the post-frontal regime, after this flow veers and weakens.
With only very weak CAPE currently anticipated, while some of this
activity (which could impact southern California coastal areas into
Friday afternoon, as well as the Greater Phoenix area by late Friday
afternoon) may be accompanied by small hail/graupel and gusty winds,
it is expected to generally remain well below severe limits.
...Parts of the southern Great Plains... Increasing deep-layer
large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of the inland accelerating short
wave trough is forecast to begin impacting the higher terrain and
high plains of west Texas and eastern New Mexico by Friday evening.
This will be accompanied by steepening mid-level lapse rates.
Although forecast soundings suggest that the most substantive
moisture return across this region may be of lower latitude eastern
Pacific origin, and based near or above 700 mb, it appears that
thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to convection capable
of producing lightning. And it appears that this activity will
tend to develop northeastward into south central portions of the
Great Plains by 12Z Saturday.
..Kerr.. 01/28/2021
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the ongoing forecast. Parts of central and southern
Florida are already observing RH in the 30-40% range. Winds of
10-20 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph can be expected into the afternoon.
..Wendt.. 01/28/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021/
...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will build across the center of
the country as northwesterly flow intensifies across the eastern
US. At the surface, dry offshore flow in the wake of a cold front
will support brief elevated fire weather conditions across southern
Florida.
...South Florida... A dry and windy post-frontal airmass will
reside over much of the Florida Peninsula through Day1. Surface
RH is forecast to fall to 25-35% in conjunction with 15-20 mph
northwesterly winds. Given little precipitation in the past weeks,
short-hour fuels have cured enough to support a few hours of elevated
fire weather potential through the afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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make empty prophecies. The danger already exists that mathematicians
have made a covenant with the devil to darken the spirit and confine
man in the bonds of Hell."
-- St. Augustine
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