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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.03.19 07:03z 137 Lines 7221 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19410_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 01 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<F6IQF<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190301/0700Z 19410@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150
PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected today, mainly across
parts of the Southeastern States where a strong storm or two with
hail cannot be ruled out. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along
the central California coast late tonight.
...Southeast States...
A weak surface low will develop over the southern Appalachians along
a quasi-stationary front today in response to forcing for ascent
attending a progressive shortwave trough currently located over OK.
By afternoon the front will extend from the low in western NC
southwestward into southeast LA. A warm/stationary front will extend
eastward from the low through southern NC. A large area of rain with
embedded thunderstorms associated with a southern-stream shortwave
trough will continue eastward through the Southeast States today.
This activity will limit surface-based destabilization across much of
the pre-frontal warm sector. However, by late afternoon there is some
potential for clearing and destabilization in wake of pre-frontal
convection. If sufficient diabatic warming occurs, a small window
of opportunity will exist for additional storms to develop along the
front from eastern AL into western GA. While low-level winds will
remain veered in wake of lead impulse, deep-layer shear will become
sufficient for rotating updrafts with the approach of a mid-level
jet. Primary threat would be hail and gusty winds. However, given
expected marginal thermodynamic environment imposed by ongoing
pre-frontal showers/clouds and uncertainty where best surface-based
destabilization corridor will evolve, will maintain general thunder
this outlook, and continue to evaluate for possible marginal risk
upgrade.
..Dial.. 03/01/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247
AM CST Fri Mar 01 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
REGION EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION...
...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe thunderstorms are possible
in the Arklatex vicinity Saturday night.
...Synopsis... Broad/relatively low-amplitude cyclonic flow aloft
is progged across the U.S. Day 2/Saturday, surrounding a large
Manitoba/western Ontario upper low. Within the fast/slighly
cyclonic westerly flow over southern portions of the country,
a rapidly advancing vort max is forecast to advance from off the
California coast at the start of the period, to the southern Plains
by Sunday morning. Showers -- and occasional/embedded thunder --
will accompany this feature as it traverses the Southwest.
At the surface, a cold front is progged to extend from an
offshore/western Atlantic surface flow southwestward into the
Southeast, and then westward across the Gulf Coast states to Texas.
North of the front, cold stable air will prevail across a large
portion of the country. Late in the period, a weak frontal wave
may evolve/migrate from east Texas into Louisiana/Mississippi,
in response to the aforementioned/fast-moving upper system.
The increase in QG forcing across the south-central U.S. should
foster elevated convective development during the second half of
the period.
...Arklatex region and possibly east to the Mississippi Delta...
As low-level warm advection atop a stable boundary layer increases
into the second half of the period, in response to the approach
of the upper vort max, an increase in convection is expected from
portions of east Texas and possibly eastern Oklahoma, eastward into
the Gulf Coast states/mid South.
Aloft, eastward advection of steeper lapse rates off the higher
terrain of New Mexico may allow ample elevated CAPE to support a few
stronger cells overnight. Aided by strong mid-level flow, a few
storms may grow to become capable of producing marginally severe
hail. At this time however, little if any risk for surface-based
storms is evident.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Goss.. 03/01/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis... Moderate westerly mid-level flow will continue
across the Southwest on Friday. A weak shortwave embedded within
the mid-level flow will lead to weak lee troughing in the southern
High Plains on Friday. Eventually, a weak surface low is expected
to develop in southeast Colorado and drift south along the New
Mexico/Texas border through the day. During the afternoon, winds
are expected to strengthen west of this surface low as mixing
deepens. In this vicinity, sustained winds are expected to be
around 15 to 20 mph with relative humidities in the 8 to 15 percent
range. A few areas of isolated critical conditions are possible,
but the isolated and short duration of the risk precludes the need
for a critical area at this time.
..Bentley.. 03/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
TRANS-PECOS REGION IN TEXAS....
...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions
are expected across a large portion of the southern High Plains
on Saturday. Downslope flow across eastern New Mexico and the
Trans-Pecos region in Texas will lead to a large area of 12 to 15
percent surface relative humidities Saturday afternoon. In addition,
winds are expected to increase to the 20 to 25 mph range across much
of this region as the surface pressure gradient strengthens due to
lee cyclogenesis, and deep mixing transports stronger mid-level
flow toward the surface. The overlap of the strongest winds and
the lowest relative humidities is expected in southeast New Mexico
and portions of the Trans-Pecos where winds are expected to be 25
to 30 mph with relative humidities 12 to 15 percent.
..Bentley.. 03/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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