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LU9DCE > ALERT 31.01.21 10:53z 91 Lines 4417 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3003_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 31 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0PBR<OK2PEN<VE3CGR<VE2PKT<
K5DAT<LU9DCE
Sent: 210131/1030Z 3003@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM NODE-BBS Flat Earth Society
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MD 0048 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IN...WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0048 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021
Areas affected...central and northern IN...west-central and
northwest OH
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 310339Z - 310745Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates will generally range 1 to 1.5 inches
per hour and move from central IN northeastward into northern IN
and northwest OH late this evening into the overnight. A gradual
transition to mixed precipitation type is forecast across central
IN and west-central OH.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broad precipitation shield from IL
eastward into OH. Strong low-level warm-air advection/isentropic
lift and ascent associated with mid-level forcing attendant to
the migratory shortwave trough, have resulted in moderate to
heavy snowfall rates across central IN earlier this evening.
The tropospheric column across much of northern IN has recently
saturated with light to moderate snow being observed as of 1030pm
EST. Snowfall rates are forecast to increase tonight across northern
IN and northwest OH and peak in the 1 to 1.5 inches/hour range for
a few hours before decreasing.
Farther south, a nose of warm air around 850 mb was sampled on the
00 UTC Lincoln, IL raob --- indicative of a profile favoring mixed
precipitation atop a sub-freezing layer near the surface. It appears
this warm air around 850 mb will continue to shift east into parts of
central IN and west-central OH tonight. Forecast soundings suggest
a transition from snow to snow/sleet or freezing rain/rain will
occur later tonight (12am-3am EST). It is uncertain how far north
the transition to mixed precipitation type will occur (near a line
from Lafayette-Marion-Celina), but areas farther south/southwest
will be most likely transition to mixed precipitation type.
..Smith.. 01/31/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...
LAT...LON 41898652 41908577 40968366 40348353 39798382 39528454
40108684 40578706 41658688 41898652
MD 0000 CONCERNING
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633
PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021
Valid 310100Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder
of tonight.
...01z Update...
Strong upper trough has progressed into the Mid MS Valley early
this evening, currently extending from northwest MO-northern AR. As
a result, focused exit region of the mid-level jet has shifted into
the lower OH Valley as evident by the extensive precip shield along
the nose of the LLJ.
Upstream, the loss of diurnal heating will prove detrimental to
surface-based convection immediately ahead of the upper trough as
boundary-layer cooling cripples an otherwise weakly buoyant air
mass. Remnants of earlier severe that developed over northeast
OK has progressed into the MO Ozark Plateau where substantial
weakening has been observed. With downstream surface temperatures
in the 40s to lower 50s, there appears to be limited buoyancy for
robust updrafts. For these reasons, severe probabilities are too
low to warrant a continuation of the MRGL Risk tonight.
..Darrow.. 01/31/2021
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Nature abhors a hero. For one thing, he violates the law of
conservation of energy. For another, how can it be the survival
of the fittest when the fittest keeps putting himself in situations
where he is most likely to be creamed?
-- Solomon Short
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