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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.02.21 11:09z 80 Lines 3996 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3068_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01 02
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<VE2PKT<K5DAT<LU9DCE
Sent: 210201/1030Z 3068@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM NODE-BBS Flat Earth Society
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MD 0050 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0050 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021
Areas affected...north FL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 010312Z - 010515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated risk for locally damaging winds may develop
with a line segment as it moves across north FL through 1230am EST.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery as of 10pm EST shows a line segment
moving east from the eastern FL Panhandle into the northern part
of the FL Peninsula. Surface analysis indicates temperatures will
likely hold steady in the upper 60s F with dewpoints in the lower
60s F ahead of the line segment. Recent radar trends have shown
a maintenance of higher echo tops as the band of storms gradually
organizes. The 00z Tallahassee and Jacksonville raobs showed a
deep moist layer from the surface to 700 mb and a weak inversion was
noted above the moist layer around 700 mb per the Jacksonville raob.
Lapse rates within the lowest 3 km will remain modest with 500 J/kg
MLCAPE objectively analyzed over north FL. It is possible a slow but
slight intensification of the line segment will occur over the next
1-2 hours as an upper vorticity maxima over the central Gulf Coast
approaches the region. It is unclear whether a threat for damaging
gusts will develop but the environment will conditionally support
a risk dependent on storm-scale processes. The overall severe risk
appears too isolated/marginal to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.
..Smith/Guyer.. 02/01/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30358289 30718167 30008132 29658184 29798308 30358289
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636
PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and locally damaging winds are
possible tonight across parts of southern Georgia into north and
west Florida.
...01z Update...
Weak surface low that was evident over central AL earlier this
afternoon continues to weaken along the GA/AL border near Columbus.
The back edge of convection is noted ahead of this weak feature
where a few lightning flashes are noted in the strongest updrafts.
Downstream, two distinct line segments have evolved within a
confluent low-level air mass over southeast GA. This activity will
shift offshore and possibly strengthen east of the coast as a new
surface low develops off the Carolina Coast later tonight.
As deep-layer flow veers across the northern FL Peninsula, low-level
convergence will likely remain limited, but sufficient for eastern
Gulf convection to spread inland along the FL Gulf Coast later
tonight. A brief tornado or wind gust can not be ruled out, though
most convection should remain sub-severe.
..Darrow.. 02/01/2021
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