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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.02.21 10:44z 148 Lines 7315 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3489_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 07 02
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 210207/1030Z 3489@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM NODE-BBS Flat Earth Society
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WW 5 TORNADO FL CW 062120Z - 070500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 5 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of North Central Florida Coastal Waters
* Effective this Saturday afternoon from 420 PM until Midnight EST.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events
to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are increasing off the west coast of Florida,
as well as isolated storms forming over the central peninsula.
All of these storms pose a risk of intensifying to severe levels,
capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles south southwest of Cross City
FL to 35 miles east northeast of Daytona Beach FL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm
motion vector 24030.
...Hart
WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059
..KARSTENS..02/07/21
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-007-017-019-035-041-053-069-075-083-095-107-109-117-119-
125-127-070240-
FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY
FLAGLER GILCHRIST HERNANDO LAKE
LEVY MARION ORANGE PUTNAM ST. JOHNS
SEMINOLE SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA
AMZ454-550-GMZ850-070240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM
MD 0061 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0908 PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021
Areas affected...Southern Appalachians and Vicinity
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 070308Z - 070715Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with rates exceeding 1 in/hr, expected this
evening over the southern Appalachians, perhaps changing to freezing
rain in a few spots after 04z-05z.
DISCUSSION...Recent mesoanalysis shows an amplifying mid-level
short-wave trough approaching the region, with strong/broad
southwesterly deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent occurring ahead
of this system. Regional radar shows a broad precipitation shield
that continues to expand and overspread the area. As low-levels of
the atmosphere continue to saturate, surface temperatures have fallen
several degrees in the past few hours, with areas in/near the higher
terrain falling below freezing. Consequently, the precipitation
type across eastern portions of the Carolinas has switched to snow,
with some locations reporting moderate snow.
As the amplifying short-wave continues its approach, several more
hours of broad ascent and renewed precipitation development is
expected. Presently, it appears frozen precipitation types should be
confined to the higher terrain regions in proximity to the southern
Appalachians. Snowfall rates near 1 in/hr can be expected initially.
Forecast soundings indicate very strong low-level warm-air advection
(50 kt flow in the 750-700 mb layer) that may result in a period
of mixed precipitation. Should this occur, some locations could
also experience freezing-rain rates near 0.06 in/3-hr after around
04z-05z.
..Karstens.. 02/07/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...
LAT...LON 34588210 34238274 34358324 34758350 35558297 36108184
35838125 34988163 34588210
MD 0000 CONCERNING
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647
PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing
strong to damaging winds, a tornado, and some marginally severe
hail are forecast over the northern and central portions of the
Florida Peninsula tonight.
...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent
mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the lower MS Valley.
An associated speed max is forecast to strengthen to 100 kt at 500 mb
by early Sunday morning over the Carolinas as the disturbance moves
to the southern Appalachians overnight. A weak surface low over the
northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to quickly develop northeastward
and be located over the GA/SC shelf waters after midnight.
A surface warm front's advancement northward into the northern
FL Peninsula has been partially thwarted by reinforcing cold pool
production by convection paralleling the warm front this evening.
The warm front may advance north another tier of counties by late
evening before stalling as the low develops to the northeast away
from the region later tonight.
The primary impetus for additional storm development will occur
as a zone of large-scale ascent, associated with the mid-level
disturbance, becomes maximized during the late evening as it
moves from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula. Some slight
intensification of the low-level wind field is expected. Given the
presence of mid-upper 60s F dewpoints and strong shear (reference
the 7pm EST Tampa raob), an isolated risk for a supercell tornado
appears plausible, along with a continuing threat for damaging
gusts with the stronger storms. Storms may eventually develop as
far south as a Cape Coral to Lake Okeechobee line by 7am EST Sunday.
..Smith.. 02/07/2021
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us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forego
their use."
-- Galileo Galilei
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