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LU9DCE > ALERT 02.03.19 07:05z 124 Lines 5975 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19450_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 02 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<F6IQF<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190302/0701Z 19450@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200
AM CST Sat Mar 02 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with hail are possible
over the Arklatex region late Saturday night.
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, currently over the eastern
Pacific, will move east towards the central plains late Saturday
night, while a vorticity lobe pivots southward around an upper low
in the vicinity of central Manitoba province. The net result will be
an amplification of the initially zonal flow across the central U.S.
Saturday night, with strengthening low/mid-level wind fields from
the southern Plains across the Arklatex. At the surface, a front
from southern GA west across the northern Gulf will lift northward
Saturday as a strong cold front moves southward late Saturday across
portions of the southern Plains and Arklatex region.
...Arklatex late Saturday night... As height falls/large-scale
lift develops late Saturday night, strengthening low-level
flow will result in warm/moist advection across the area, with
weak elevated instability developing in the 06Z-12Z time frame.
Effective shear will increase to 40-45 kts, sufficient to support
a few organized/weakly rotating storms within an expanding area of
showers and thunderstorms. Hail will be the main severe threat,
with a couple of marginally severe reports possible.
...Northern Florida/southern Georgia... Scattered thunderstorms
may be ongoing or developing Saturday morning as the cold front
interacts with an increasingly moist air mass. A subtle mid-level
impulse moving through the westerly flow aloft early may contribute
to storm development, and some potential may exist for a few stronger
storms given 35-45 kts of effective shear. Instability is expected
to remain generally at or below 1000 J/kg, and with concerns over
stronger storm coverage will not introduce severe probabilities at
this time.
...Central California Valley... Cool mid-level temperatures/steep
lapse rates will contribute to pockets of sufficient instability
for thunderstorms during the afternoon as a cold front moves east.
Should sufficient heating develop, strong mid-level winds will
result in ample shear for organized storms with a risk for hail.
Most guidance develops only meager instability across the area,
however if the likelihood of heating/greater destabilization
increases, later outlooks may need to introduce severe probabilities.
..Bunting/Bentley.. 03/02/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE TRANS-PECOS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level jet will move across the Southwest on
Saturday. This will lead to lee troughing in eastern New Mexico
during the day. The combination of the lee troughing and deep-mixing
transporting stronger winds to the surface will lead to sustained
surface winds of 15 to 25 mph during the afternoon hours. In
addition, relative humidities are expected to drop below 15 percent
in much of southern New Mexico. Critical fire weather conditions
are possible in much of this vicinity, however, Pacific moisture
will be moving into western New Mexico by later in the afternoon
which will limit the duration of possible critical conditions in
the western half of the state. Therefore, there is a small area
in southeast New Mexico and part of the Trans Pecos in Texas where
the duration of critical fire weather conditions is expected to
persist long enough to warrant a critical fire weather delineation.
..Bentley.. 03/02/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A long wavelength mid-level trough will be in place
across the CONUS on Sunday leading to cool conditions in the north
and wetter conditions in the south. Fuels remain unsupportive for
large fire spread in much of the CONUS except for the southern
High Plains. However, residual low-level moisture is expected to
be in place across the southern High Plains on Sunday which will
limit the threat for fire weather concerns. Therefore, no areas
have been highlighted for this outlook.
..Bentley.. 03/02/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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A Tale of Two Cities LITE(tm)
-- by Charles Dickens
A lawyer who looks like a French Nobleman is executed in his place.
The Metamorphosis LITE(tm)
-- by Franz Kafka
A man turns into a bug and his family gets annoyed.
Lord of the Rings LITE(tm)
-- by J. R. R. Tolkien
Some guys take a long vacation to throw a ring into a volcano.
Hamlet LITE(tm)
-- by Wm. Shakespeare
A college student on vacation with family problems, a screwy
girl-friend and a mother who won't act her age.
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