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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.02.21 12:14z 78 Lines 3702 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13 02
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Sent: 210213/1147Z 3914@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM NODE-BBS Flat Earth Society
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MD 0071 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF WILLAMETTE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0071 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021
Areas affected...Portions of Willamette Valley
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 130155Z - 130700Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates are expected to increase this
evening, especially within the 7-11 PM time window. Areas within
the Willamette Valley west of Portland are most likely to see higher
ice accumulations. Precipitation in Portland will remain snow with a
transition to freezing rain and sleet towards early Saturday morning.
DISCUSSION...Surface high pressure into the Columbia Basin has
helped to maintain easterly/northeasterly surface winds into the
Willamette Valley. With the approach of a strong Pacific trough this
evening, coverage and intensity of precipitation should increase.
Current KRTX reflectivity trends indicate that this process is
underway. Light freezing rain has been observed for several hours
from just west of Portland and southward to near Salem. These areas
are the most likely to see larger ice accumulations. While Portland
is currently observing snowfall, it will be near the transition
zone to freezing rain/sleet. Forecast soundings do indicate that
freezing rain and sleet are possible towards 2-4 AM PST. The exact
evolution of the transition zone will be dependent on the surface
low developing west of the Washington coast. Current observations
indicate a preference for a more northerly track which would indicate
higher probability of transition away from snow later tonight. While
heavy snow is also possible with this trough, the heaviest snowfall
rates are expected to remain within the Cascades northward into
the western Puget Sound and adjacent Olympic Peninsula.
..Wendt.. 02/13/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PQR...
LAT...LON 44962350 45882353 45962340 45972315 45762290 45452279
44872297 44622317 44582338 44732347 44962350
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644
PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Minimal thunderstorm chances may persist tonight
over parts of the Southeast.
...Synopsis... Beneath southwest flow aloft, scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms will remain possible near a stalled front from
northern FL into southern GA. Around 500 J/kg MLCAPE exists near the
boundary where dewpoints are in the mid 60s F, and the 00Z sounding
from TLH shows thunderstorm potential with little inhibition.
Increasing warm advection overnight with southwest 850 winds to 40
kt may aid storm chances as activity over the Gulf of Mexico moves
onshore, but most forecast soundings show most unstable parcels
will be elevated given time of day.
..Jewell.. 02/13/2021
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