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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.02.21 10:35z 112 Lines 5433 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4201_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17 02
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<VE2PKT<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 210217/1031Z 4201@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM NODE-BBS Flat Earth Society
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MD 0105 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021
Areas affected...Parts of central Texas
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 170341Z - 170745Z
SUMMARY...Light to occasionally moderate precipitation will
overspread parts of central Texas, roughly between Austin, Waco
and College Station through Midnight-3 AM CST. This may initiate
as sleet in most areas, before changing over to freezing rain with
accumulating ice probable on most exposed surfaces.
DISCUSSION...A developing band of precipitation now spreading
east-northeast of the Edwards Plateau appears largely forced by
lower/mid tropospheric frontogenetic forcing, Models suggest that
this will be maintained across parts of central Texas (particularly
near/northwest of Austin into areas between Waco and College Station)
into and through the 06-09Z time frame, although there may be some
fluctuations in intensity.
Based on forecast soundings, lift appears generally maximized within
the dendritic growth zone, but temperatures above freezing within
the 850-700 mb layer are allowing for falling precipitation to melt.
East-north of the Edwards Plateau, cooling within this initially
unsaturated layer, due to melting and evaporation, may support
relatively minor accumulations of sleet. However, as elevated warm
advection continues across the region on south-southwesterly flow,
warming and deepening of the warm layer is expected to allow for
a changeover to rain.
Although rain rates may remain relatively light to occasionally
moderate in intensity, with surface temperatures mostly in the
upper teens to mid 20s F, ice may quickly accumulate on most
exposed surfaces.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30519882 30979895 31269862 31429699 31359599 30579601
30289782 30269870 30519882
MD 0104 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0104 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021
Areas affected...Parts of southern Oklahoma into north-central Texas
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 170214Z - 170615Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow appears most likely for south-central into
parts of southeastern Oklahoma per latest radar trends. Heavy snow
bands may occur in parts of southwestern into north-central Oklahoma,
but uncertainty is higher in these areas.
DISCUSSION...Recent KFWS and KFDR radar imagery show an area of
moderate to heavy snow moving northeastward from north-central and
northwestern Texas into south-central Oklahoma. This activity is
expected to persist for the next several hours as 850 winds and
warm advection increase with time in conjunction with continued
mid-level ascent. Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour are possible.
Elsewhere in central Oklahoma, areas of banded precipitation have
produced 1 inch per hour rates. Radar presentation has shown a more
nebulous precipitation structure from southwestern Oklahoma into
north-central Oklahoma over the past 1-2 hours. However, recent
development of banding roughly along the I-44 corridor suggests
some remaining potential for heavy snow to impact the OKC metro as
the activity shifts to the northeast.
..Wendt.. 02/17/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33349741 33169797 33409873 33979961 34369958 34749890
35269766 35399698 35449629 35389580 35069529 34469509 33939539
33629605 33349741
MD 0000 CONCERNING
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656
PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms is
negligible through tonight.
...DISCUSSION... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place along
the eastern Seaboard this evening as an upper-level trough moves
across the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move
southeastward across south Florida. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible along and ahead of the front this evening in the Miami
area. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of
southern New Mexico and far west Texas this evening along the
southern portion of the upper-level trough. Instability will be
insufficient for a severe threat across the continental United
States this evening through tonight.
..Broyles.. 02/17/2021
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