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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.03.21 11:04z 267 Lines 12847 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 210301/1031Z 5050@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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WW 15 SEVERE TSTM KY TN 010110Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 15 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 810 PM EST Sun Feb
28 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far south-central
Kentucky Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Sunday evening from 810 PM until 1100 PM EST.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Cluster of strong to severe storms may produce damaging
winds and a brief tornado before it weakens later this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
40 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west
of Crossville TN to 20 miles northeast of Crossville TN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 13...WW 14...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26045.
...Grams
WW 14 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 282350Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 14 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CST Sun Feb
28 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas
Northwest Louisiana Northeast Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 550 PM until
1000 PM CST.
* Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65
mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple discrete cells should persist along a cold front
that will shift southeast this evening, and may consolidate into a
cluster across the Arklatex region. Large hail and damaging winds
should be the primary threats.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles east of El
Dorado AR to 35 miles southwest of Longview TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 12...WW 13...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 23030.
...Grams
WW 13 TORNADO AR KY MO MS TN 282020Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 13 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Arkansas
Southwest Kentucky Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western
and Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
1000 PM CST.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread
damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph
possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter
possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the watch
area through the afternoon and evening hours - with a few intense
thunderstorms expected. Damaging winds are the most likely threat,
but large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible from the most
organized storms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Hot Springs
AR to 15 miles east northeast of Nashville TN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 12...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.
...Hart
WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/01/21
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC053-057-171-010440-
KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINTON CUMBERLAND MONROE
TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-061-087-111-133-137-141-149-159-
169-175-177-185-189-010440-
TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS GRUNDY
JACKSON MACON OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM
RUTHERFORD SMITH TROUSDALE VAN BUREN
WARREN WHITE WILSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION
ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
WW 0014 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 14
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/01/21
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 14
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-073-091-099-139-010440-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE MILLER
NEVADA UNION
LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-010440-
LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE
DE SOTO LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION
WEBSTER
TXC037-067-073-183-203-315-347-365-401-419-423-459-010440-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CASS CHEROKEE GREGG
HARRISON MARION
WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE TXK TO
40 NW ELD TO 5 ENE PBF TO 45 E PBF TO 50 NNW GWO TO 35 WNW MSL TO
50 WSW BNA TO 30 NE BNA.
..BROYLES..03/01/21
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 13
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-041-043-079-103-010440-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN DESHA DREW
LINCOLN OUACHITA
TNC055-099-101-117-119-181-187-010440-
TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GILES LAWRENCE LEWIS MARSHALL
MAURY WAYNE WILLIAMSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CRS TO
45 SW PRX TO 35 WSW DEQ TO 20 WSW HOT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137
..DIAL..02/28/21
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...TSA...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 12
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC057-061-073-081-091-099-109-133-282240-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER
MILLER NEVADA PIKE SEVIER
TXC037-063-067-119-159-223-231-257-315-343-379-387-449-459-467-
499-282240-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS DELTA
FRANKLIN HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
MARION MORRIS RAINS RED RIVER TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
MD 0144 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 14... FOR ARKLATEX
Mesoscale Discussion 0144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
Areas affected...Arklatex
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 14...
Valid 010301Z - 010430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 14 continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue for a couple more
hours across parts of the Arklatex. A tornado along with wind damage
and hail will be possible. An extension in time may be needed after
the expiration at 04Z.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a line of storms ongoing from far
northeast Texas into far northwestern Louisiana, where some cells
are semi-discrete. The Shreveport WSR-88D VWP shows some directional
shear in the boundary layer with 0-3 km storm relative helicity
near 325 m2/s2. This may support an isolated tornado threat with
the stronger cells in the short-term. Isolated large hail and wind
damage will also be possible. The threat may become more isolated as
the front moves to the southeast and undercuts the ongoing storms.
However, a lingering severe threat could require an extension in
time for WW 14.
..Broyles/Grams.. 03/01/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31279436 31429452 31509485 31469493 31459510 31639527
31719537 31879546 32119545 32429546 32649566 32689561 32609523
32559514 32969516 32929468 33289466 33329471 33669474 33539428
33579391 33609386 33749397 33789387 33989381 33919342 33829324
33729305 33429308 33399257 33169212 32829202 32669216 32619240
32529240 32519249 32479272 32159282 32159309 31949313 31929331
31919345 31829344 31849385 31659382 31639414 31609436 31279436
MD 0000 CONCERNING
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655
PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
TEXAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes
remain possible through tonight from northeast Texas into the
Mid-South and Tennessee Valley. A few strong storms, with some
marginal severe hail threat, are possible later tonight across
southwest into south-central Texas.
...01z Update...
An elongated corridor of deep convection has matured and currently
extends from northeast TX-eastern AR-western TN-southern KY. This
activity has developed ahead of a notable cold front that should
continue to advance southeast through the end of the period. While
the primary storm mode is multi-faceted with a considerable amount of
linear and convective structures, a few supercells are noted within
the larger complex. 00z sounding from SHV exhibited a profile that is
supportive of supercells with SBCAPE on the order of 1900 J/kg with
240 sfc-3km SRH. It appears the greatest severe threat will continue
along a corridor from northeast TX into middle TN. Damaging winds
are the main threat, but a few tornadoes are also possible.
Farther southwest, strong upper low is digging southeast across
AZ/NM. This feature should encourage elevated convection across
portions of southwest TX around 06z, +/- a few hours. This activity
should spread east ahead of large-scale forcing, along the cool
side of the southward-surging cold front. Hail is the primary risk
with this activity.
..Darrow.. 03/01/2021
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The years of peak mental activity are undoubtedly between the
ages of four and eighteen. At four we know all the questions,
at eighteen all the answers.
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