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LU9DCE > ALERT 06.03.19 07:03z 84 Lines 4179 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19601_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 06 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<GB7YEW<
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Sent: 190306/0700Z 19601@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135
PM CST Tue Mar 05 2019
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across
California and the Great Basin today. Severe thunderstorms are
not anticipated.
...CA/Great Basin... Upper pattern will trend more zonal today
as persistent troughing across the central and eastern CONUS
loses amplitude and a progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough
moves through the Great Basin, breaking down antecedent shortwave
ridging. The Great Basin shortwave trough, which is responsible for
the ongoing burst of lightning activity off the southern CA coast,
will likely be over UT by 00Z Thursday. Forcing for ascent and
cold mid-level temperatures associated with this shortwave will
contribute to showers and isolated thunderstorms from southern CA
into the Four Corners.
Additionally, cold mid-level temperatures ushered in by this lead
shortwave will be in place ahead of another subtle shortwave trough
following in its wake. This second shortwave trough is expected to
take a more northerly track, from northern CA across northern NV
and into the northern Rockies, with isolated thunderstorms possible
over this region beginning in the late afternoon. Given the strong,
unidirectional flow aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates, a storm
or two may organize enough to produce hail. However, most of this
hail would likely be below severe thresholds and too isolated to
merit any outlook areas.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/06/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238
AM CST Wed Mar 06 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.
...Discussion... In the wake of the upper trough departing the
northeastern U.S., quasi-zonal flow aloft is forecast to evolve
across the country during the first half of the period. The zonal
flow pattern will prove temporary/transitional however, as an
eastern-Pacific upper trough digs southeastward toward California.
As this trough reaches California late, downstream ridging will
likewise undergo amplification, while shifting east across the
Rockies and reaching the High Plains by Friday morning.
While a few lightning strikes will be possible over parts of
California and the Great Basin late, as the upper trough moves
inland, the primary zone for showers and occasional/embedded
lightning will extend roughly west-to-east from the Great Basin
to the Tennessee Valley. This zone includes potential for mainly
diurnal lightning associated with an area of convection spreading
eastward across the Rockies through the day, associated with a
progressive short-wave trough embedded within the quasi-zonal
westerlies. Meanwhile, eastern portions of this thunder area
reflect potential for overnight/elevated convective development,
within a zone of isentropic ascent/low-level warm advection ahead
of the approaching upper system. In all areas, severe weather is
not anticipated.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Goss.. 03/06/2019
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