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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.03.21 10:41z 87 Lines 4507 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6053_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 210315/1031Z 6053@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM NODE-BBS Flat Earth Society
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MD 0178 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PORTIONS
OF IOWA...NEBRASKA...AND MINNESOTA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021
Areas affected...Much of South Dakota into portions of
Iowa...Nebraska...and Minnesota.
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 142320Z - 150515Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow will gradually expand in coverage across the
Upper Midwest after 0000 UTC. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour
are expected and will likely continue into the overnight hours.
DISCUSSION...6 pm Radar and METAR observations showed a large comma
head band of stratiform precipitation across portions of the Northern
Plain into the Upper Midwest. Gradual expansion of the precipitation
shield is expected over the next several hours as forcing for
ascent from a 564 DAM closed low over western Kansas shifts to the
east. The heaviest corridor of snow currently located over western
South Dakota will develop eastward, mainly after 0000 UTC, in part
due to strong mid-level warm advection ahead of the surface cyclone
over southeastern Colorado. Regional model soundings show a deep
and saturated dendritic growth zone above a shallow surface warm
layer. This warm air will gradually erode as increased low-level
cool advection and dynamic column cooling develop this evening
and into the overnight. The result should be the development of
moderate to heavy snow with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour along a
corridor from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota into
northeastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa. While some uncertainty
in the exact time of change over exists, it appears likely that
heavy snow will become widespread between 0300 and 0600 UTC and
continue through the overnight.
..Lyons.. 03/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42699865 42980046 43030305 43320389 44270407 45140357
45650253 45710056 45559884 44999712 44529613 43789462 42929347
42049293 41529321 41279407 41409503 41639586 41929649 42319746
42699865
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756
PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY... A marginal risk for a few strong thunderstorms with
gusty winds and possibly a brief tornado exists tonight over a
portion of the lower Mississippi Valley region.
...Lower Mississippi Valley area...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue developing
within warm conveyor belt in advance of and along a slow-moving cold
front across the lower Mississippi Valley this evening and into
western portions of the Tennessee Valley tonight. Vertical wind
profiles are favorable for organized severe storms. However, the
00Z RAOB from Little Rock indicates very weak instability (MUCAPE
around 300 J/kg), and further destabilization is unlikely in the
moist warm sector overnight. Primary threat will be a few locally
strong wind gusts, but overall threat should remain very marginal.
...Central through northwestern Kansas...
Scattered low-topped convection including isolated thunderstorms
are in the process of developing from central through northwest KS
within convergence bands along and just south of an occluded front.
Dewpoints have mixed down into the 30s F south of the boundary with
fairly large temperature-dewpoint spreads. While small hail and a
few locally strong wind gusts remain possible through about 02Z,
any remaining threat should soon wane with loss of daytime heating.
..Dial.. 03/15/2021
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