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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.03.21 16:42z 257 Lines 12208 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6107_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 210316/1631Z 6107@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Tue, 16 Mar 2021 10:51:02 +0000
Tue, 16 Mar 2021 10:51:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 16 10:51:02 UTC 2021.
Tue, 16 Mar 2021 10:50:08 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 16 10:51:02 UTC 2021.
Tue, 16 Mar 2021 10:50:06 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF ALABAMA...
CORRECTED TO ADJUST LOCATION OF MRGL LABEL
...SUMMARY...
A broad area of substantial severe weather potential -- including
risk for large hail, damaging winds, and several strong tornadoes --
is anticipated Wednesday fromthe Arkansas/Louisiana vicinity
eastward across the central Gulf Coast states/southern Appalachians.
...Synopsis...
A compact/vigorous upper low initially over the Oklahoma area is
forecast to move steadily eastward through the period, spreading
strong flow aloft and a broad zone of enhanced ascent across the
south-central and into the southeastern CONUS.This low will reach
the Ozarks overnight, flanked by ridging across the Rockies, and
along the East Coast.
At the surface, a 998 mb low is progged to advance eastward along a
similar track, crossing northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas through
the day, and then the Ozarks overnight.A trailing cold front will
shift from eastern portions of the southern Plains and across
Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon, and then across the
Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states through the end of
the period.Meanwhile, a warm front extending eastward from the low
across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and then
east-southeastward across the Tennessee Valley into Georgia will
linger in place on its eastern fringe, but will lift slowly
northward in advance of the progressing low.These two fronts will
outline a broad/moist warm sector, which will gradually destabilize
through the day supporting a widespread/potentially significant
severe weather event.
...Southern MO/AR/LA vicinity east to the TN valley/western GA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing ahead
of the cold front from eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas southward
into east Texas, and east-southeastward along the warm front across
the Tennessee Valley area to the southern Appalachians.
As the synoptic system advances, convection over the central Gulf
Coast region/Southeast should remain generally north of the warm
front, while some decrease in pre-cold-frontal convection is also
expected through the morning.This should permit some heating of
the moist (generally mid 60s dewpoints) warm-sector boundary layer,
pushing mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by
early afternoon.
New storm development is expected to occur from the southwestern
Missouri vicinity southward across the Arklatex region by early
afternoon.Strong shear -- including veering of the wind field with
height from southerly to southwesterly -- will support ready
evolution of rotating updrafts, with some long-lived storms likely
evolving with time.Along with large hail potential, locally
damaging winds will be possible, along with a steadily increasing
tornado risk through the afternoon.As storms move into central and
eastern Arkansas, at least a few intense supercells are expected,
within the broader area of storms.Potential for a couple of
significant tornadoes is apparent, with this risk spreading into
southwestern Tennessee and northern Mississippi with either
pre-cold-frontal storms moving eastward into the region, or with
other cells developing in a zone of increasing low-level warm
advection in the warm sector/near the warm front.
During the evening and into the overnight hours, substantial
strengthening of the low-level southerlies across the central Gulf
Coast region is expected.While some diurnal decrease in
instability is expected, this should be more than offset by the
increasing low-level and deep-layer shear.As such, risk for
additional/significant tornadoes is anticipated to last through the
overnight hours, focused particularly across much of Alabama.Hail
and relatively widespread damaging winds will also be possible
across this same region.
..Goss.. 03/16/2021
Read more
Tue, 16 Mar 2021 07:07:24 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
GEORGIA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
CORRECTED TO INCLUDE SIG AREA IN PROB GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is expected from southern Virginia southward into
Florida, and westward into portions of eastern Kentucky/eastern
Tennessee Thursday.Along with potential for hail and locally
damaging winds, several tornadoes -- a couple of them possibly
strong -- are anticipated.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous upper low initially progged over eastern portions of the
Ozarks, is expected to continue steady eastward progression through
the period, weakening gradually as it crosses the Appalachians and
reaches Virginia/the Carolinas by the end of the period.In the
wake of this feature, ridging will expand to encompass much of the
country, as an eastern Pacific trough nears the Pacific Northwest
Coast late.
As the upper system advances, a surface low just ahead of cyclone
aloft will likewise progress eastward, crossing the mountains during
the evening before redeveloping offshore through the end of the
period.A trailing cold front will cross the southern Appalachians
through the first half of the period, before moving offshore
overnight.A second day of fairly widespread -- and possibly
locally substantial -- severe risk is anticipated.
...Parts of the Mid and Southern Atlantic Coast states, and westward
into eastern parts of KY/TN...
Showers and thunderstorms -- and some attendant severe weather risk
-- will be ongoing Thursday morning, particularly over the southern
Appalachians region.With associated clouds streaming northeastward
across themiddle and southern Atlantic Coast states, hindered
heating -- and thus tempered diurnal destabilization -- is expected.
Still, with northward advection of higher theta-e air east of the
mountains ahead of the advancing surface system causing a rapid
retreat of the remnant damming front, sufficient CAPE should evolve
to support vigorous storms -- with intensity of the updrafts aided
by strongly veering/increasing flow with height.
Storms should increase through midday west of the mountains across
parts of eastern Kentucky/eastern Tennessee ahead of the synoptic
system.Relatively low-topped storms -- and local risk for
all-hazards severe weather -- will likely evolve.
Meanwhile, storms are expected to spread across Georgia and into the
Carolinas ahead of the advancing cold front, along with some
pre-frontal cellular development within a zone of strong warm
advection east of the mountains.Given ample instability and a very
favorably sheared environment, relatively widespread and locally
substantial severe weather potential is indicated -- including risk
for a few strong tornadoes.Potential is expected to expand
northward toward/into southern Virginia with time as the front
retreats into the evening, before convection begins to end from west
to east as the cold front moves toward -- and eventually off -- the
Atlantic Coast.
..Goss.. 03/16/2021
Read more
Tue, 16 Mar 2021 07:37:43 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement
through Day 6 (Sunday Mar. 21).During this early half of the
period, models show a cold front having moved offshore by the start
of Day 4 (Friday) with the exception of far south Florida.In the
wake of this front, strong surface high pressure is depicted, which
persists over the eastern half of the country through Day 6.
Beyond Day 6, a trough moving across the interior West will begin to
emerge into the Plains.However, models exhibit at least some
differences with respect to the strength of this feature, and the
associated evolution of the surface pattern.In any case, presence
of ridging across the Gulf of Mexico into Day 6-7 and potentially
beyond, suggests incomplete/modest moisture return into the southern
Plains, and thus limited instability would be expected -- which
would appear to be unsupportive of any substantial severe weather
episodes through the end of the period.
Read more
Tue, 16 Mar 2021 09:00:03 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS....
...Synopsis...
A potent compact upper low and mid-level jet streak will rotate
across the southern Four Corners and eject eastward across the
southern High Plains through today. Strong pressure falls at the
surface are expected across the Texas panhandle as a lee low
develops rapidly this afternoon and evening. Strong winds and low
humidity across portions of the southern High plains will support
widespread critical fire weather conditions.
...Eastern New Mexico and west Texas...
Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected across
portions of the Stacked Plains and west Texas as an area of low
pressure in the lee of the Rockies ejects eastward across the
southern Plains. Regional model soundings show a very dry airmass in
place with daytime humidity values as low 3 to 4% across southern
New Mexico. The extremely dry conditions will be accompanied by very
strong westerly winds of 30-40 mph, resulting from momentum
transport from an 80-90 kt mid-level jet streak aloft. Fuel dryness
remains above average thanks to little recent precipitation. This
suggests widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely. The
nature of the dry/windy conditions also indicates that locally
extremely critical conditions may develop for a couple hours where
fine fuels have cured further. Fuel dryness remains too low at this
time to introduce more widespread extremely critical conditions.
..Lyons.. 03/16/2021
Read more
Tue, 16 Mar 2021 06:41:28 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
A deep mid-level low is forecast to move across Texoma toward the
ArkLaTex and become negatively tiled by early evening. At the
surface, a strong area of low pressure will move rapidly east
northeast, trailing a Pacific cold front across much of the southern
Plains. Gusty winds and dry conditions behind the low may support
elevated to local critical fire weather conditions through the day.
...Rio Grande Valley...
Behind the departing upper low, gusty northwesterly winds are likely
across much of southwestern Texas. The passage of the cold front
overnight and through the early morning hours will reduce surface RH
somewhat given cooler temps. However, widespread RH of 20-25% is
expected from diurnal mixing and the modified dry continental
airmass. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with the
possibility of locally critical conditions where terrain enhancement
may support stronger sustained winds.
..Lyons.. 03/16/2021
Read more
Tue, 16 Mar 2021 06:43:27 +0000
+------------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS ----------------------------+
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