| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 17.03.21 09:53z 228 Lines 9031 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6129_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<JE7YGF<XE1FH<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 210317/0930Z 6129@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Wed, 17 Mar 2021 03:26:02 +0000
Wed, 17 Mar 2021 03:26:02 +0000
general
1
WW 23 SEVERE TSTM TX 170325Z - 171000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 23
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and North-Central Texas
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1025 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify along
a cold front pushing into west Texas.These storms will sweep
eastward overnight across the watch area, posing a risk of damaging
winds and hail.Isolated tornadoes are also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west southwest
of Junction TX to 50 miles north northeast of Mineral Wells TX. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 22...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
25035.
...Hart
Read more
Wed, 17 Mar 2021 03:25:02 +0000
WW 22 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 170050Z - 170800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 22
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
750 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South Central Kansas
Western and North-Central Oklahoma
Eastern Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 750 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify rapidly this
evening along a boundary over northwest Oklahoma and the northeast
Texas Panhandle.Other isolated cells may develop slightly farther
south.Storms will track northeastward across the watch, posing a
risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or
two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 90 miles west of
Clinton OK to Ponca City OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Hart
Read more
Wed, 17 Mar 2021 01:54:03 +0000
WW 0023 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0023 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
Wed, 17 Mar 2021 03:25:04 +0000
WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LYONS..03/17/21
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 22
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC035-077-191-170240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COWLEYHARPERSUMNER
OKC003-009-011-015-017-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-071-
073-075-083-093-103-119-129-149-151-153-170240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFABECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO CANADIANCUSTER
DEWEY ELLISGARFIELD
GRANT GREERHARMON
HARPERJACKSON KAY
KINGFISHERKIOWALOGAN
MAJOR NOBLEPAYNE
ROGER MILLS WASHITA WOODS
WOODWARD
TXC087-129-179-211-295-393-483-170240-
Read more
Wed, 17 Mar 2021 01:54:03 +0000
MD 0188 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY
Mesoscale Discussion 0188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0927 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021
Areas affected...northwest Texas through the Hill country
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 170227Z - 170400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop from northwest Texas
into the Hill country near or shortly after 03Z and spread east
overnight. Damaging wind and large hail are the primary threats, but
a couple of tornadoes are also possible.
DISCUSSION...As of mid evening a cold front is advancing east
through western Texas, and this boundary will soon merge with the
dryline farther east. Low level moisture with upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints is surging northwestward beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates, and latest objective analysis show moderate instability with
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE east of the dryline. However, the 00Z RAOB
data from Fort Worth and RAP point-forecast soundings indicate a
capping inversion associated with warm air aloft at the base of an
elevated mixed layer. This suggests initial storm development will
likely remain confined to within the zone of forcing where the cold
front intercepts the dryline. Moreover, WV imagery shows a corridor
of deep forcing for ascent associated with a progressive shortwave
trough spreading eastward through western TX. Current estimation is
that storms will probably initiate near or shortly after 03Z. Some
discrete modes are possible initially, but storms are expected to
evolve into a dominant linear mode. Wind profiles with 50 kt
effective bulk shear will support organized storms including bowing
line segments and embedded supercells. Damaging wind and large hail
will be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also
possible given sufficiently large low-level hodographs.
..Dial/Hart.. 03/17/2021
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON30350131 31690099 33770066 34199969 33789821 32429784
30679889 30140013 30350131
Read more
Wed, 17 Mar 2021 02:28:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with large hail (some significant), damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are expected tonight across the southern
Great Plains to the Ark-La-Miss.
...01z Update...
No significant changes have been made to the 20z outlook other than
to increase severe probabilities a bit across portions of central AR
for late tonight.
Leading edge of intense mid-level forcing is now spreading across NM
into the TX Panhandle, per expanding mid-level cloud shield.
Extensive dust, kicked up by 50kt+ surface winds across eastern NM,
is now spreading northeast which supports this dynamic, progressive
system. Boundary-layer moisture is advancing quickly northwest
across north TX/southern OK and adequate buoyancy is now in place
for thunderstorm initiation near CDS. As moisture surges northwest
overnight, robust/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead
of the surface low, in line with earlier thinking.
One minor change to the earlier outlook is to expand severe
probabilities a bit downstream into portions of central AR. There is
some concern that LLJ may strengthen across the Arklatex by sunrise.
If so, a risk of tornadic supercells may begin by the end of the
day1 period. This threat warrants a nudge up in severe
probabilities.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2021
Read more
Wed, 17 Mar 2021 00:37:18 +0000
+------------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS ----------------------------+
Democracy is a government where you can say what you think even if you
don't think.
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
